基于户籍比较的特大城市住宅价格时空分异研究——以长沙市为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为揭示中国特大城市住房市场中，不同购房群体在住房价格空间特征上的差异，论文对购房人群的户籍归属地进行划分，以“本地—外来”的视角分别刻画了长沙本地与外来(长沙户籍与非长沙户籍)2类购房者房价格局的时空演进。采取动态空间滞后特征模型(STAR-Hedonic)分析了区位、景观、邻里等因素对2类购房者房价的影响。研究发现：① 长沙外来购房者房价梯度下降更快，空间更平滑。② 长沙房价空间一江两岸双中心的总体格局逐步成型。传统CBD五一广场对城市房价的重要性在下降，但是对本地人房价梯度和价格弹性程度维持较高水平，副中心梅溪湖新城对外来人群房价的影响因子的提升幅度更大。③ 外来购房者对住宅品质和邻近配套有更高的支付倾向。④ 楼市的繁荣期和调控期，周边交易价格对2类购房者的影响程度不同。论文从功能需求、主观因素、政策区别和经济动机4个方面探究了2类购房者房价空间分异的成因。在“房住不炒”背景下，关注不同人群房价空间演进和影响因素的变化趋势，有助于特大城市房地产市场“精准调控”的实施。

关键词: 户籍比较, 房价空间结构, 房价影响因子, 动态空间滞后模型, 长沙市

Abstract:

In order to reveal the differences in the spatial pattern of housing prices among different buyers in China's megacities, this study divided the household registration of housing buyers from Changsha City into two categories and depicted the spatial and temporal evolution of housing price patterns for these two groups of buyers respectively. A spatiotemporal auto regression model (STAR) was employed to analyze the influence of location, landscape, neighborhood, and other factors on the housing prices. We found that: 1) The housing price gradient of Changsha's non-registered household buyers has fallen faster than others while their space is more smooth. 2) The overall pattern of Changsha housing price space with "one river, two banks, and two centers" has gradually emerged. The influence of traditional central business district (CBD)—the Wuyi Square—on housing prices is declining, but it maintains a high level of housing price gradient and price elasticity for the locals. The sub-center Meixi Lake New City has a greater impact on the housing prices for outside buyer. 3) Outside buyers have a higher propensity to pay for housing quality and neighboring facilities. 4) In the period of prosperity and regulation of the housing market, the transaction prices of surrounding housing projects have different effects on the two types of housing buyers. This study explored the causes of the spatial differentiation of housing prices between the two types of buyers from four aspects: Functional requirements, subjective factors, differences of policy, and economic motivations. In the context of "housing for living not for speculation", paying attention to the spatial structure of housing price of different groups of people and the changing trends of influencing factors will help to develop a deeper understanding of the housing regulation policy in megacities.

Key words: household registration, spatial structure of housing price, housing price impact factor, spatiotemporal auto regression hedonic model, Changsha City

黄拓夫, 何甜, 朱翔. 基于户籍比较的特大城市住宅价格时空分异研究——以长沙市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(1): 27-41.

HUANG Tuofu, HE Tian, ZHU Xiang. Spatiotemporal variation of housing price in megacities based on household registration: Taking Changsha City as an example[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 27-41.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

图3

表2

图4

表3

2013—2019年两类购房人群空间价格模型结果

变量	2013年购房人群空间价格模型结果				2016年购房人群空间价格模型结果				2019年购房人群空间价格模型结果
	模型1：长沙本地人群		模型2：外来人群		模型3：长沙本地人群		模型4：外来人群		模型5：长沙本地人群		模型6：外来人群
	SAR	STAR	SAR	STAR	SAR	STAR	SAR	STAR	SAR	STAR	SAR	STAR
常数	8.684^***	24.733^***	8.678^***	34.669^***	8.797^***	16.913^***	8.816^***	12.363^***	9.175^***	24.604^***	8.998^***	8.278^***
户室面积	-0.011	-0.015	-0.014	-0.017	-0.003	-0.002	-0.010	-0.010	-0.017	-0.015	-0.021	-0.022
绿化率	0.001^*	0.001^*	0.002^***	0.003^***	0.002	0.002^*	0.003	0.004^**	0.002^**	0.005^***	0.004^**	0.006^**
车位配比	0.005^**	0.008^*	0.021^*	0.022^*	0.014^**	0.019^***	0.017^**	0.026^**	0.0019^**	0.026^**	0.027^***	0.033^**
物管等级	0.006^**	0.001^*	0.000^*	0.002^*	0.002^**	0.002^**	0.004^**	0.006^**	0.008^**	0.009^**	0.015^***	0.012^***
房龄	-0.007^*	-0.0012^*	-0.005	-0.002^*	-0.002^*	-0.006^*	-0.012^***	-0.012^***	-0.011^*	-0.013^*	-0.012^*	-0.016^*
知名小学	0.008	0.009	0.006	0.014	0.014^*	0.013^*	0.023^*	0.021^*	0.023^*	0.024^*	0.027^***	0.029^***
知名中学	0.029^**	0.053^***	0.042^***	0.056^***	0.042^***	0.057^***	0.046^***	0.061^***	0.050^***	0.063^***	0.061^***	0.089^***
健康休闲	0.004^**	0.009^*	0.001	0.001^*	0.001^**	0.001^**	0.001	0.002^*	0.005^***	0.006^***	0.001	0.001^*
医院	-0.021^**	-0.029^*	-0.016^*	-0.032^*	-0.009	-0.008	0.031^*	0.033^*	-0.029	-0.032^*	-0.015	-0.013
购物中心	0.012^**	0.012^*	0.001	0.001	0.034	0.040	0.012	0.015	-0.028	-0.037	-0.002	-0.003
公交站点数	-0.009^**	-0.011	-0.012	-0.013	-0.004	-0.003	-0.004	-0.004	-0.005	-0.002	-0.010^*	-0.009^**
地铁站点	0.034^**	0.047^***	0.050^***	0.064^***	0.043^***	0.039^***	0.057^***	0.084^***	0.054^***	0.059^***	0.066^**	0.069^**
CBD距离	-0.025^**	-0.048^***	-0.21^**	-0.037^**	-0.020^**	-0.034^***	-0.012^***	-0.019^***	-0.025^***	-0.032^***	-0.009^**	-0.014^**
高铁站距离	0.006^**	0.009^*	0.007^*	0.009^**	0.017^**	0.020^***	0.011	0.012	0.001	0.002	0.017	0.016
梅溪湖副中心距离	-0.012	-0.007^*	-0.006^*	-0.008^*	-0.007^**	-0.011^**	-0.008^**	-0.015^***	-0.013^*	-0.018^**	-0.024^***	-0.026^***
湘江距离	-0.018^**	-0.028^***	-0.032	-0.036^***	-0.033^***	-0.056^***	-0.038^***	-0.64^***	-0.055^**	-0.075^***	-0.069^**	-0.099^***
洋湖新城距离	-0.014	-0.016	-0.012	-0.014	-0.018	-0.021	-0.024^*	-0.017^*	-0.021^*	-0.019^*	-0.0027^*	-0.023^**
ρ	0.102^**		0.088^***		0.238^**		0.104^***		0.119^***		0.061^***
ψ		0.085^***		0.046^***		0.164^**		0.078^***		0.069^***		0.03^5***
AIC	223.205	219.001	161.246	149.966	31.263	28.83	-101.03	-112.1	162.837	158.974	67.24	64.166
R²	0.473	0.491	0.439	0.474	0.462	0.496	0.503	0.515	0.478	0.499	0.484	0.513
调整R²	0.449	0.467	0.421	0.432	0.403	0.418	0.481	0.492	0.444	0.457	0.469	0.481
Log-likelihood	-173.161	-166.433	-215.653	-199.911	-113.524	-104.339	-423.785	-395.211	-89.141	-66.335	-213.135	-202.171
N	15917	15917	32316	32316	15725	15725	42513	42513	16946	16946	24285	24285

表3

图5

图6

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变量		变量定义及测度方法
结构变量	户室面积	按房屋总面积分级赋值(60 m²以下为1，60~90 m²为2，90~120 m²为3，120~144 m²为4，144 m²以上为5)
	小区绿化	住宅小区绿地率(10%以下为0.5，10%~15%为1，15%~35%为2，35%~45%为3，45%~55%为4，55%以上为5)
	停车位配比	住宅小区内设计布置停车位总数与小区住宅总套数的比值(0.4以下为1，0.4~0.6为2，0.6~0.8为3，0.8~1为4，1以上为5)
	小区物管	住宅小区内物业管理的水平，按备案物业管理公司等级进行赋值(无物管为0，无级别物管为1，三级及以下物管为2，二级为3，一级为4，特级为5)
	房龄	距离住宅建成的年份(用研究时段年份减去住宅建造年份)
邻里变量	知名小学	住宅小区是否归属于长沙知名小学学区(是为1，否为0)
	知名中学	住宅小区是否归属于长沙知名初中学区(是为1，否为0)
	休闲	住宅小区半径范围1.5 km内公园广场及体育场馆的个数
	医院	住宅小区半径范围1.5 km内长沙市三甲医院个数
	商业	住宅小区半径范围1.5 km内商业购物中心个数
	公交	住宅小区半径范围1 km内公交站点个数
	有无地铁	住宅小区半径范围1 km内是否有地铁(是为1，否为0)
区位变量	CBD距离	住宅小区距离长沙市CBD五一广场的距离(单位：km)
	洋湖湿地距离	住宅小区距离洋湖湿地区的距离(单位：km)
	梅溪湖距离	住宅小区距离梅溪湖国际新城的距离(单位：km)
	湘江距离	住宅小区距离湘江沿江风光带的距离(单位：km)
	高铁站距离	住宅小区距离长沙高铁站的距离(单位：km)

类型	莫兰指数	Getis-Ord G_i*
2013年长沙本地人群购房价	0.117^***	0.35^***
2013年长沙外来人群购房价	0.121^***	0.43^***
2016年长沙本地人群购房价	0.236^***	0.47^***
2016年长沙外来人群购房价	0.173^***	0.38^***
2019年长沙本地人群购房价	0.027^***	0.36^***
2019年长沙外来人群购房价	0.103^***	0.37^***