暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.015

地理科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 185-196.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.015

暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展

任智慧¹^,⁵(), 桑燕芳¹^,²^,⁵^,^*(), 杨默远³, 王月玲¹, 尚莉⁴

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，北京 100101
2.复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室，北京 100085
3.北京市水科学技术研究院，北京 100048
4.北京联合大学，北京 100101
5.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2022-05-27 修回日期:2022-09-08 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-03-28
通讯作者: *桑燕芳(1983— )，男，山西黎城人，博士，研究员，主要研究方向为水文气象与自然灾害防治。E-mail: sangyf@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:任智慧(1996— )，女，湖南岳阳人，博士生，主要研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail: renzhihui068@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0606903);国家自然科学基金项目(41971040)

Progress of research on the methods for the early warning of mountain flash flood disasters

REN Zhihui¹^,⁵(), SANG Yanfang¹^,²^,⁵^,^*(), YANG Moyuan³, WANG Yueling¹, SHANG Li⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Compound and Chained Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China
3. Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China
4. Beijing Union University, Beijing 100101, China
5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-05-27 Revised:2022-09-08 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-03-28
Supported by:
National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFA0606903);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971040)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

暴雨山洪灾害预警是中小流域山洪灾害防控体系的薄弱环节，也是决定山洪灾害防控成败的关键。论文围绕山洪灾害预警的核心问题，从中国山洪灾害区域差异特征、山洪灾害预警技术方法、山洪灾害概率预警现状3个方面进行了综述。中国山洪灾害分布存在明显的时空差异，因此有必要根据山洪灾害的区域差异发展有针对性的预警方法。以临界雨量为指标的雨量预警是目前中国中小流域暴雨山洪灾害预警的主要技术手段，但常规方法仅给出一个(组)确定的临界雨量阈值，导致预警结果存在突出的不确定性问题。概率预警可以定量评估诸多不确定性，给出山洪灾害概率预警结果，因此具备很好的理论优势与潜在应用价值。论文展望了山洪灾害概率预警未来的研究重点与方向：① 充分挖掘暴雨洪水样本信息，开展山洪灾害概率预警基础方法与技术集成研究；② 加强非平稳性条件下的临界雨量阈值估算与山洪灾害概率预警研究；③ 综合考虑预警阈值发生概率及其致灾概率，优化“多级预警、多级响应”技术方法，推进山洪灾害综合预警业务系统建设与应用。

关键词: 山洪灾害预警, 临界雨量, 时空差异, 不确定性, 概率分布

Abstract:

Accurate and timely warning is vital for the prevention and control of mountain flash flood disasters in small- and medium-sized basins, but it is the most challenging task. Focusing on the key issues of mountain flash flood warning, this study conducted a review on the spatial differences of mountain flash flood disaster characteristics in China, techniques and methods for flash flood warning, and development of probabilistic warning methods for mountain flash flood control. The review indicated that the temporal and spatial differences of the characteristics of mountain flash flood disasters are clear across China, thus it is necessary to develop suitable early warning systems in specific areas based on their special characteristics. The indicator of critical rainfall is an important basis of mountain flash flood warning in China. A fixed critical rainfall estimated by statistical methods or hydrological models, as commonly done in practice, cannot meet the needs because it does not perform well sometimes and cannot adequately address the uncertainty of warning results. Alternatively, probabilistic warning of mountain flash flood disasters, which can quantitatively evaluate the uncertainty of warning results, has theoretical advantages and potentially wide applications, and thus could be a more adaptive approach. In order to develop the probabilistic warning methods of mountain flash flood disasters, the following key issues should be addressed: 1) Mining detailed information from different sources of rainstorm and flash floods data, and developing effective methods for the probabilistic warning of mountain flash flood disasters. 2) Dealing with the nonstationarity issue commonly encountered in hydrological studies, and exploring its influences on the estimation of critical rainfall and the accuracy of probabilistic warning results. 3) Establishing an integrated flash flood warning system by considering both the occurrence probability of critical rainfall and its resulting probability of mountain flash flood disasters for the practical prevention and control of mountain flash flood disasters.

Key words: early warning for mountain flash floods, critical rainfall, spatiotemporal variability, uncertainty, probabilistic distribution

任智慧, 桑燕芳, 杨默远, 王月玲, 尚莉. 暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(1): 185-196.

REN Zhihui, SANG Yanfang, YANG Moyuan, WANG Yueling, SHANG Li. Progress of research on the methods for the early warning of mountain flash flood disasters[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 185-196.

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灾害组成要素		东部季风区	蒙新干旱区	青藏高寒区
孕灾环境	地形地貌	海拔较低，以平原、丘陵地貌为主	海拔较高，以高山、荒漠和盆地地貌为主	海拔高，以高原、高山冰川和局地河谷地貌为主
	气候特征	东亚季风气候特征显著，降雨丰富，多台风和暴雨等极端天气	大陆性气候特征显著，降雨频率低，雨量少，易出现局地强降雨	高寒气候特征显著，降雨时空分配极不均匀，局地气候对暴雨影响显著
	土壤条件	林下发育，淋溶性强，多为饱和—半饱和状态，有利于山洪发生	有机质含量低，地表松散物源丰富，水土流失严重，泥石流发育	土层浅薄，冻土层发育；半干旱区地表松散物源丰富，泥石流发育
	植被条件	以森林、草原为主，植被覆盖度高	以草原、荒漠为主，植被覆盖度适中	以荒漠、草原、高山草甸为主，生态环境脆弱
	人类活动	强度高且范围广	强度适中	强度较低
致灾因子		以暴雨为主	以局地强降雨为主	冰雪融水、冰湖溃决、局地强降雨共同作用
承灾体		人口密度高，社会财产比重较高，社会经济发展水平高	人口较少，分布集中，社会财产比重适中	人口稀少，重要城镇和主要人口集中分布在河谷地区，社会经济发展水平较低

国家/区域	预警系统	功能	预警指标	优势
美国	Flash Flood Guidance	考虑降雨、土壤含水量与下垫面特性等因素，通过产汇流与洪水演进模拟，对预警指标进行反推	时段降雨量	考虑洪水产生的物理机制与诸多影响因素，结构清晰、功能强大
欧洲	European Flood Alert System	耦合气候模型与水文模型，通过输入不同分辨率的降雨预报产品，对洪水过程进行模拟与预警	EPIC指数、ERICHA指数	可以提供早期洪水预警与短期洪水预报，预见期较长
日本	基于流域雨量指数的山洪预警系统	考虑土壤湿度、河网分布、土地利用等，采用水箱模型模拟流域出口断面流量，实现洪水预警	流域雨量指数	考虑城市与非城市下垫面产流能力的差异，计算简便
中国	基于实时监测与预报信息的山洪预警体系	集成山洪灾害调查结果、水文模型、实时监测与预报信息，实现中长期预警风险评估与短期实时预警	网格预报降雨量、实时雨量/水位/流量	可实现气象预警、雨量预警和水文预报预警的有机结合，适用性强

方法	基本原理	预警结果	存在缺陷
固定临界雨量估计方法	雨量达到/超过某一量级和强度时，引发洪水灾害	洪水灾害发生概率为0 或100%	未考虑前期土壤含水量、暴雨时空变异性、流域下垫面情况等复杂因素的影响
动态临界雨量估计方法	考虑不同因素影响的基础上，雨量达到/超过某一量级和强度时，引发洪水灾害	不同因素影响下，洪水灾害概率为0或100%	通过临界雨量阈值判断洪水灾害发生或不发生，即发生概率为0或100%，但未考虑洪水灾害发生的概率与不确定性

暴雨山洪灾害预警方法研究进展

Progress of research on the methods for the early warning of mountain flash flood disasters

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