泰安市设施农用地的时空格局演变与影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

设施农用地是农副产品重要的空间载体。在土地利用转型视角下，区域耕地、非农建设用地规模对设施农用地规模的作用机制及其空间效应尚不明确。论文基于第二、三次全国土地利用调查数据(简称为“二调”和“三调”)，运用空间自相关分析、土地利用转移矩阵等方法，系统分析泰安市设施农用地的空间演变特征及其关键影响因素。研究发现：① 二调至三调期间，泰安市设施农用地规模总量相对稳定，但净变化剧烈，耕地、非农建设用地分别是设施农用地主要的转入来源、退出去向；② 泰安市设施农用地呈现出从县城中心向外围推移的规律性，远城区集聚趋势不断加强；③ 二调时期，耕地规模促进设施农用地扩张，而三调时期，耕地规模抑制设施农用地增长，并且在远离县城的乡镇表现更为显著；④ 二调、三调时期非农建设用地均稳定促进设施农用地扩张，这一作用在空间上普遍存在。研究结论可为耕地“非粮化”“非农化”治理以及设施农用地的空间布局调整提供理论支撑。

关键词: 设施农用地, 城乡区位, 土地利用转型, 非粮化与非农化, 泰安市

Abstract:

Facility agricultural land (FAL) is an important spatial carrier of non-grain agricultural production. Under the current land use transition, the impact of regional arable and construction land scales on the scale of FAL and their spatial effects are unclear. Based on the data of the second (2008) and third (2018) national land surveys, this study used spatial autocorrelation analysis and land use transfer matrix to systematically analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of the FAL in Tai'an City and the key influencing factors, in an attempt to provide some theoretical support for the management of "non-grain" and "non-agricultural" transition of arable land and the spatial layout adjustment of FAL. The results show that: 1) During the decade between 2008 and 2018, the total area of FAL in Tai'an City was relatively stable, but the net change was dramatic, and arable land and construction land were the main sources and destinations for transferring FAL, respectively. 2) The FAL showed a spatial pattern of moving from the center of the counties/districts to the periphery, with an increasing trend of agglomeration in distant urban areas. 3) During the second national land survey period, the scale of arable land promoted the expansion of FAL, while during the third national land survey period, the scale of arable land inhibited the growth of FAL and the effect was more significant in townships far away from the county seats. 4) During both the second and the third national land surveys, construction land steadily promoted the expansion of facility agricultural land, and this effect was widespread in space.

Key words: facility agricultural land, urban-rural location, land use transition, "non-grain" and "non-agricultural" transition, Tai'an City

陈韵凌, 王茂军. 泰安市设施农用地的时空格局演变与影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(1): 116-130.

CHEN Yunling, WANG Maojun. Spatial and temporal patterns of facility agricultural land in Tai’an City and influencing factors[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 116-130.

图/表 13

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图2

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图3

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图5

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图7

表3

表4

回归分析结果

变量名称	三调时期						二调时期
	基准回归模型		稳健性检验				二调时期
	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5 (子样本)	模型6 (子样本)	模型7	模型8
耕地面积(AL_area)	-0.172^* (-1.832)	-0.199^** (-2.162)	-0.207^** (-2.639)	-0.227^*** (-2.939)	-0.221^*** (-2.682)	-0.231^*** (-2.81)	0.318^*** (2.809)	0.356^*** (3.131)
非农建设用地面积(NACL_area)	0.240^** (2.385)	0.286^** (2.300)	0.226^** (2.537)	0.289^** (2.518)	0.231^** (2.136)	0.256^** (2.090)	0.381^*** (3.622)	0.351^*** (2.901)
坡度(Slope)	-0.326^*** (-3.252)	-0.308^*** (-3.098)	-0.224^** (-2.479)	-0.236^** (-2.645)	-0.250^** (-2.491)	-0.259^** (-2.597)	-0.250^** (-2.518)	-0.258^*** (-2.747)
距县城中心距离(D_county)	0.410^*** (4.198)	0.426^*** (4.452)	0.323^*** (3.836)	0.360^*** (4.154)	0.350^*** (3.891)	0.390^*** (3.981)	-0.013 (-0.124)	-0.089 (-0.840)
距市中心距离(D_city)	0.193^* (1.847)	0.171^* (1.544)	0.185^** (2.008)	0.186^* (1.926)	0.186^* (1.912)	0.177^* (1.735)	-0.125 (-0.965)	-0.099 (-0.724)
省域市场规模(MPit)	0.153 (1.604)	0.162^* (1.737)	0.134^* (1.703)	0.153^* (1.969)	0.217^** (2.355)	0.217^** (2.369)	0.154 (1.079)	0.027 (0.196)
县域市场规模(NC_pop)	0.144 (1.506)	0.179^* (1.899)	0.247^*** (2.793)	0.264^*** (3.044)	0.186^* (1.794)	0.213^** (2.054)	0.183^* (1.424)	0.357^*** (2.815)
乡镇人口规模(Pop)	0.221^** (1.981)	0.264^** (2.382)	0.286^* (1.753)	0.328^** (2.023)	0.469^** (2.286)	0.461^** (2.227)	-0.019 (-0.208)	-0.037 (-0.437)
乡镇财政收入(LFR)	-0.102 (-0.892)	-0.115 (-1.031)	0.074 (0.764)	0.038 (0.388)	0.136 (1.405)	0.098 (0.991)	-0.177 (-1.693)	-0.110 (-1.067)
距公路最近距离(ND_road)	0.086 (0.873)	0.086 (0.902)	0.086 (1.055)	0.101 (1.268)	0.147 (1.606)	0.148 (1.639)	0.004 (0.035)	0.015 (0.158)
非农就业人口占比(NFP)			-0.276 (-1.600)	-0.259 (-1.518)	-0.407^* (-1.933)	-0.350 (-1.608)
有效灌溉面积(IR_area)			0.361^*** (3.057)	0.335^*** (2.891)	0.288^** (2.297)	0.268^** (2.152)
二调设施农用地(SecFAL_area)			-0.006 (-0.070)	-0.007 (-0.091)	-0.059 (-0.678)	-0.051 (-0.588)
农村合作社(RC)			0.201^** (2.211)	0.172^* (1.863)	0.164^* (1.693)	0.160 (1.645)
农业技术服务机构(ATS)			0.159^** (2.136)	0.168^** (2.297)	0.165^** (1.999)	0.186^** (2.262)
土地流转面积 (LT_area)			-0.198^** (-2.412)	-0.253^*** (-2.851)	-0.237^** (-2.616)	-0.269^*** (-2.788)
是否高效农业项目驻地乡镇(EAP)			0.146^* (1.912)	0.132^* (1.713)	0.057 (0.643)	0.065 (0.708)
D_county $×$ AL_area		-0.208^** (-2.199)		-0.156^** (-2.014)		-0.141^* (-1.729)		-0.341^*** (-3.204)
D_county $×$ NACL_area		0.106 (0.940)		0.099 (0.955)		0.068 (0.633)		-0.102 (-0.962)
R²	0.399	0.447	0.663	0.688	0.634	0.635	0.431	0.517
调整后R²	0.321	0.358	0.581	0.601	0.535	0.545	0.354	0.437
F	5.114	5.049	8.099	7.892	6.405	6.042	5.600	6.424
Sig	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001	< 0.001
N	88	88	88	88	80	80	88	88

表4

图8

图9

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项目	市区		新泰市	宁阳县	肥城市	东平县	合计
项目	泰山区	岱岳区	新泰市	宁阳县	肥城市	东平县	合计
二调	345.41	859.41	1334.68	866.21	818.70	662.35	4886.76
三调	218.61	870.24	1251.15	858.87	951.79	763.54	4914.20
总变化	-126.80	10.83	-83.53	-7.34	133.09	101.19	27.44
净增加	101.47	442.73	704.42	442.26	538.43	584.82	2814.12
净减少	150.95	387.68	788.95	441.42	402.95	437.86	2609.81

区域	过渡圈层/km	行政中心至质心距离/km	Ⅱ区平均坡度/(°)	县城人口规模/万人
市区	16~18	9.80	6.79	67.28
肥城市	4~6	8.62	2.97	30.77
东平县	10~12	11.02	4.05	28.04
宁阳县	28~30	13.23	2.77	10.40
新泰市	26~28	14.70	5.28	35.82

变量			符号	单位	预期符号	二调时期				三调时期
变量			符号	单位	预期符号	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准偏差	最小值	最大值	平均值	标准偏差
因变量		设施农用地面积	FAL_area	hm²		0	144.10	55.53	31.94	0	145.60	55.84	32.75
自变量		耕地面积	AL_area	hm²	-	3.79	11693.08	4275.77	2520.42	1.07	14498.59	4325.13	2891.82
自变量		非农建设用地面积	NACL_area	hm²	+	268.03	4490.23	1398.82	730.24	310.46	8087.00	1848.19	1191.40
控制变量	地形条件	坡度	Slope	°	-	1.84	16.23	4.47	2.82	1.84	16.23	4.47	2.82
	区位条件	距县城中心距离	D_county	km	+	0.60	40.91	17.27	9.63	0.60	40.91	17.27	9.63
	区位条件	距市中心距离	D_city	km	+	2.38	92.74	43.68	23.20	2.38	92.74	43.68	23.20
	市场规模	省域市场规模	MPit		+	193.94	254.54	224.41	19.85	491.47	671.05	576.18	61.23
	市场规模	县城人口规模	NC_pop	万人	+	9.82	47.67	25.03	10.26	10.4	53.59	27.11	12.81
	社会经济发展	乡镇人口规模	Pop	万人	+	0.11	7.80	0.72	0.84	1.25	21.53	6.51	3.29
		乡镇财政收入	LFR	万元	+	148.00	47814.00	3474.76	5615.91	468.00	94336.00	11122.92	17425.62
		距公路最近距离	ND_road	m	-	4.12	1377.31	362.03	325.41	4.12	1377.31	362.03	325.41
		非农就业人口占比	NFP	%	+/-					0.03	0.84	0.38	0.15
		有效灌溉面积	IR_area	hm²	+					0	31.60	12.79	7.51
	政策调控	农村合作社	RC	个	+					0	146.00	54.11	31.34
		农业技术服务机构	ATS	个	+					0	28.00	5.35	5.59
		土地流转面积	LT_area	个	+					0	11753.20	820.64	1312.64
		是否高效农业项目驻地乡镇	EAP	是/否	+					0	1.00	0.60	0.49