基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.07.007

地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (7): 1226-1238.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.07.007

基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析

王敏霞¹^,²(), 张学珍¹^,³^,^*(), 荆文龙⁴

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2.中国地质大学(北京),地球科学与资源学院,北京100083
3.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
4.广东省科学院广州地理研究所,广州 510070

收稿日期:2021-12-23 修回日期:2022-03-12 出版日期:2022-07-28 发布日期:2022-09-28
通讯作者: *张学珍(1981— ),男,山东济宁人,研究员,主要从事陆气相互作用研究。E-mail: xzzhang@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:王敏霞(1996— ),女,河南周口人,硕士生,主要从事气候变化影响研究。E-mail: wangmx1@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41790424)

Attribution analysis of centennial scale changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin over the past millennium based on BCC-CSM1-1 simulation

WANG Minxia¹^,²(), ZHANG Xuezhen¹^,³^,^*(), JING Wenlong⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510070, China

Received:2021-12-23 Revised:2022-03-12 Online:2022-07-28 Published:2022-09-28
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41790424)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化对径流的影响是全球变化研究领域的重点问题。论文采用BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年(850—2012年)气候与水文变化数据,基于Budyko假设与傅抱璞公式开展了中世纪气候异常期(MCA)、小冰期(LIA)和现代暖期(MWP)黄河中、上游径流变化及其归因分析。结果表明：① 在3个气候特征期之间,上游地区径流与气候冷暖变化位相相同,MWP时期径流最高,LIA时期径流最低;中游地区径流则与气候冷暖变化位相相反,LIA径流最高,MCA径流最低。② 径流对各因子的敏感性不仅存在地理差异,而且受特征期之间气候冷暖转变的影响。中游地区径流对降水和潜在蒸发的弹性系数(绝对值)大于上游,且在冷转暖过程中的弹性系数(绝对值)略大于暖转冷过程。同时,持续偏暖过程中、上游地表变化的弹性系数(绝对值)均明显大于暖转冷与冷转暖过程。③ 3个特征期之间径流差异主要由降水主导,地表变化影响甚微,但潜在蒸发的作用存在地域差异,上游地区潜在蒸发部分抵消了降水变化的贡献而中游地区潜在蒸发则加强了降水导致的径流变化。研究量化了黄河流域各因子对过去千年百年尺度径流变化的贡献,明确了不同气候转变期各因子贡献的差异,为更好地研究径流量多尺度变化及其成因奠定了基础。

关键词: BCC-CSM1-1, 过去千年, 径流, 百年尺度, 黄河中上游

Abstract:

As the hydrological cycle changes intensify with climate warming, the relationship between runoff and climate change has become a hot topic of research. This study simulated runoff changes between the three distinct climate stages during the last millennium—that is, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warm Period (MWP)—in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River using the BCC-CSM1-1 simulation dataset and carried out an attribution analysis with the Budyko Hypothesis and Fu's Formula. The results showed that: 1) At the upper reaches of the Yellow River, there was higher runoff in the MWP and lower runoff in the LIA, and the phase of runoff change was the same as temperature anomaly. However, at the middle reaches of the Yellow River, there was higher runoff in the LIA when it was the coldest while lower runoff in the MCA and MWP when it was warmer. 2) The sensitivity of runoff to various factors showed a geographical difference and was affected by the shift of warm-cold conditions between different climate stages. The elasticity coefficients (absolute value) of runoff to precipitation and potential evaporation in the middle reaches were greater than in the upper reaches, and they were slightly larger during the cold to warm transitional period than in the warm to cold transitional period. Meanwhile, the elasticity coefficient (absolute value) of runoff to land surface changes in the upper and middle reaches during the continuous warming period was significantly greater than in the warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm transitional periods. 3) The runoff discrepancy during the three distinct climate stages was mainly dominated by precipitation, with little influence from land surface change. But there were regional differences in the role of potential evaporation. The effect of potential evaporation in the upper reaches partially offsets the contribution of precipitation to the runoff changes while the potential evaporation in the middle reaches strengthens the runoff changes caused by precipitation.

Key words: BCC-CSM1-1, the past millennium, runoff, centennial scale, Yellow River

王敏霞, 张学珍, 荆文龙. 基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(7): 1226-1238.

WANG Minxia, ZHANG Xuezhen, JING Wenlong. Attribution analysis of centennial scale changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin over the past millennium based on BCC-CSM1-1 simulation[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(7): 1226-1238.

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模式名称	分辨率(大气模块) (经度×纬度×层数)	分辨率(海洋模块) (经度×纬度×层数)	研发机构
BCC-CSM1-1	128×64×L40	360×232×L40	中国气象局北京气候中心
IPSL-CM5A-LR	96×95×L40	182×149×L31	法国皮埃尔—西蒙·拉普拉斯研究所
GISS-E2-R	144×90×L40	288×180×L32	美国宇航局戈达德太空研究所
CCSM4	288×192×L26	320×384×L60	美国国家大气研究中心
HadCM3	76×73×L19	288×144×L20	英国气象局哈德利气候预测和研究中心
MPI-ESM-P	196×98×L47	256×220×L40	德国马普气象研究所
MRI-CGCM3	320×160×L48	364×368×L51	日本气象研究所
CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2	64×56×L18	128×112×L21	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织

时期	径流变化总量	各因子贡献量
时期	∆R	∆R_P	∆R_E₀	∆R_Surface	误差
MCA-LIA	-2.98	-3.02	1.48	-0.34	-1.10
LIA-MWP	8.22	10.74	-2.77	-1.10	1.35
MCA-MWP	5.24	7.72	-1.29	-1.44	0.25

时期	径流变化总量	各因子贡献量
时期	∆R	∆R_P	∆R_E₀	∆R_Surface	误差
MCA-LIA	30.30	27.64	7.52	-1.82	-3.04
LIA-MWP	-6.57	-4.75	-4.29	0.09	2.38
MCA-MWP	23.73	22.89	3.23	-1.73	-0.66

基于BCC-CSM1-1模拟的过去千年黄河中上游径流百年尺度变化的归因分析

Attribution analysis of centennial scale changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin over the past millennium based on BCC-CSM1-1 simulation

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