地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 461-473.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.011
收稿日期:
2019-03-25
修回日期:
2019-08-20
出版日期:
2020-03-28
发布日期:
2020-05-28
通讯作者:
史兴民
作者简介:
宋臻(1988— ),女,河北邯郸人,硕士生,主要从事环境变化与人类适应研究。E-mail: songzhenkid@163.com
基金资助:
Received:
2019-03-25
Revised:
2019-08-20
Online:
2020-03-28
Published:
2020-05-28
Contact:
SHI Xingmin
Supported by:
摘要:
厘清农户的气候变化适应行为类型以及农户属性、气候变化感知对适应行为的影响机制,对于制定合适的适应政策至关重要。论文将适应行为分为技术性行为、经济性行为和迁移性行为3类,并构建了以气候变化感知为中介变量的“属性-感知-适应”多变量路径分析模型,在对农户属性对适应行为的影响进行多元方差分析的基础上探讨了变量间的影响路径。结果表明:① 农户适应气候变化会优先选择技术性行为,其次是经济性行为,选择迁移性行为的农户最少;② 农户属性对适应行为的影响具有显著差异;③ 根据中介变量的中介效应,将多变量路径分析模型分解为3类:完全中介模型、部分中介模型和无中介模型。通过分析以上3种模型可以发现,农户属性对适应行为既有通过中介变量产生的间接影响,也有不通过中介变量产生的直接影响,说明适应行为的选择并不仅仅依赖于气候变化感知,农户属性对于适应行为的选择也是一个重要的直接影响因素。最后针对提高农户应对气候变化的能力提出了相关政策建议。
宋臻, 史兴民. 雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.
SONG Zhen, SHI Xingmin. Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.
表1
变量定义及描述统计"
变量名称 | 定义 | 均值 | 标准差 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
性别 | 1=女;2=男 | 1.58 | 0.49 | |
年龄 | 1=30岁以下;2=30~40岁;3=40~50岁;4=50~60岁;5=60~70岁;6=70岁以上 | 3.51 | 1.52 | |
文化程度 | 1=小学及以下;2=初中;3=高中;4=大专及以上 | 1.70 | 1.05 | |
本地居住时间 | 1=5 a以内;2=5~10 a;3=10~20 a;4=20~30 a;5=30 a以上 | 4.42 | 1.10 | |
家庭农业收入 | 1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上 | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
家庭非农业收入 | 1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上 | 1.91 | 1.14 | |
村到乡镇的距离 | 1=0~5 km;2=5~10 km;3=10~15 km;4=15~20 km;5=20 km以上 | 1.53 | 0.73 | |
气候变化 趋势感知 | 夏季平均气温变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 3.75 | 0.77 |
冬季平均气温变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 3.58 | 0.85 | |
年平均降水量变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 2.02 | 0.91 | |
旱灾变化 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 4.06 | 0.82 | |
气候变化 影响感知 | 作物播种时间 | 1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后 | 1.85 | 0.63 |
作物收获时间 | 1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后 | 1.94 | 0.64 | |
作物产量 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 1.87 | 0.94 | |
病虫害 | 1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多 | 4.05 | 0.91 | |
极端气候事件频发 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.63 | 0.48 | |
作物营养成分变化 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.57 | 0.50 | |
技术性行为 | 增加农药使用量 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.72 | 0.45 |
增加灌溉次数 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.48 | 0.50 | |
增加地膜覆盖面积 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.62 | 0.49 | |
使用保墒技术 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.84 | 0.37 | |
更换作物品种 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.41 | 0.49 | |
改变种植时间 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.33 | 0.47 | |
改变收获时间 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.32 | 0.47 | |
改变种植结构 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.52 | 0.50 | |
经济性行为 | 增加非农收入 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
外出打工 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.60 | 0.49 | |
购买保险 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.15 | 0.35 | |
迁移性行为 | 迁移外地 | 0=否;1=是 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
表2
农户属性对适应行为影响的多元方差分析"
农户属性 | 技术性行为 | 经济性行为 | 迁移性行为 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F值 | P值 | F值 | P值 | F值 | P值 | |||
性别 | 1.917 | 0.167 | 0.635 | 0.426 | 5.374 | 0.021 | ||
年龄 | 3.707 | 0.055 | 13.095 | <0.001 | 3.345 | 0.068 | ||
文化程度 | 3.661 | 0.056 | 0.006 | 0.939 | 0.022 | 0.883 | ||
本地居住时间 | 0.273 | 0.602 | 0.064 | 0.800 | 98.465 | <0.001 | ||
家庭农业收入 | 4.234 | 0.040 | 2.229 | 0.136 | 0.864 | 0.353 | ||
家庭非农业收入 | 0.529 | 0.467 | 75.777 | <0.001 | 0.317 | 0.574 | ||
村到乡镇的距离 | 1.393 | 0.238 | 0.015 | 0.902 | 0.187 | 0.665 |
表3
农户属性、气候变化感知对适应行为影响的路径系数"
变量 | 性别 | 年龄 | 文化 程度 | 本地居住时间 | 家庭农业 收入 | 家庭非 农业收入 | 村到乡镇 的距离 | 气候变化 趋势感知 | 气候变化 影响感知 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
技术性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.041 | -0.091* | 0.067 | 0.025 | 0.071* | 0.028 | 0.053 | 0.087* | -0.013 | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.006 | 0.009* | 0.007* | -0.005 | 0.003 | -0.003 | -0.015* | — | — | |
m2 | <0.001 | <0.001 | -0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | 0.002 | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.047 | -0.082* | 0.074* | 0.020 | 0.074* | 0.025 | 0.038* | 0.087* | -0.013 | |
z2 | <0.001 | -0.091 | 0.066 | 0.025 | 0.071* | 0.028 | 0.055 | 0.087* | -0.013 | ||
经济性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.021 | -0.151* | -0.005 | 0.012 | -0.052 | 0.293* | <0.001 | 0.053 | -0.040 | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.004 | -0.003 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.009 | — | — | |
m2 | 0.001 | -0.001 | -0.002 | 0.001 | -0.001 | <0.001 | 0.005 | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.024 | -0.145* | -0.001 | 0.009 | -0.050 | 0.291* | -0.009 | 0.053 | -0.040 | |
z2 | 0.022 | -0.152* | -0.007 | 0.013 | -0.053 | 0.293* | 0.005 | 0.053 | -0.040 | ||
迁移性行为 | 直接影响 | 0.069* | 0.071 | 0.005 | -0.369* | 0.033 | -0.017 | -0.015 | 0.051 | -0.074* | |
间接影响 | m1 | 0.003 | 0.006 | 0.004 | -0.003 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.009 | — | — | |
m2 | 0.002 | -0.002 | -0.003 | 0.001 | -0.003 | <0.001 | 0.009* | — | — | ||
总影响 | z1 | 0.072* | 0.077 | 0.009 | -0.372* | 0.035 | -0.019 | -0.024 | 0.051 | -0.074* | |
z2 | 0.071* | 0.069 | 0.002 | -0.368* | 0.030 | -0.017 | -0.006* | 0.051 | -0.074* | ||
气候变化趋势感知 | 直接影响 | 0.065 | 0.109* | 0.084* | -0.052 | 0.034 | -0.033 | -0.171* | — | — | |
气候变化影响感知 | 直接影响 | -0.027 | 0.029 | 0.046 | -0.013 | 0.034 | 0.001 | -0.126* | — | — |
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