雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.011

地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 461-473.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.011

雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析

宋臻, 史兴民^*()

陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710119

收稿日期:2019-03-25 修回日期:2019-08-20 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2020-05-28
通讯作者: 史兴民
作者简介:宋臻(1988— ),女,河北邯郸人,硕士生,主要从事环境变化与人类适应研究。E-mail: songzhenkid@163.com
基金资助:
“十三五”国家重大研发计划项目(2017YFC0504702);国家自然科学基金项目(41571260);教育部人文社科基金项目(15YJCZH141);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2019JM-405)

Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas

SONG Zhen, SHI Xingmin^*()

School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China

Received:2019-03-25 Revised:2019-08-20 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2020-05-28
Contact: SHI Xingmin
Supported by:
"13th Five-Year" National Major R&D Program(2017YFC0504702);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571260);Humanities and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education(15YJCZH141);Natural Science Basic Research Project of Shaanxi Province(2019JM-405)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

厘清农户的气候变化适应行为类型以及农户属性、气候变化感知对适应行为的影响机制,对于制定合适的适应政策至关重要。论文将适应行为分为技术性行为、经济性行为和迁移性行为3类,并构建了以气候变化感知为中介变量的“属性-感知-适应”多变量路径分析模型,在对农户属性对适应行为的影响进行多元方差分析的基础上探讨了变量间的影响路径。结果表明：① 农户适应气候变化会优先选择技术性行为,其次是经济性行为,选择迁移性行为的农户最少;② 农户属性对适应行为的影响具有显著差异;③ 根据中介变量的中介效应,将多变量路径分析模型分解为3类：完全中介模型、部分中介模型和无中介模型。通过分析以上3种模型可以发现,农户属性对适应行为既有通过中介变量产生的间接影响,也有不通过中介变量产生的直接影响,说明适应行为的选择并不仅仅依赖于气候变化感知,农户属性对于适应行为的选择也是一个重要的直接影响因素。最后针对提高农户应对气候变化的能力提出了相关政策建议。

关键词: 气候变化, 农户属性, 感知, 适应行为, 路径分析

Abstract:

The impact of climate change is felt globally and China is no exception. Evidence indicates that natural resource-based agriculture is especially sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change due to its strong dependence on weather conditions. Climate-related events such as droughts, cold waves, hailstorms, snowfall, erratic rainfall, and fluctuation in temperature contribute to farmers' vulnerability and affect the livelihood of farming households and agricultural production on which national food security depends. Under the background of global climate change, finding reasonable and effective adaptive measures to reduce agricultural losses and increase agricultural production levels have attracted increasingly more attention. Most studies pay attention to the relationship between farmers' perceptions and adaptive behaviors, while farmers' attributes are seldom considered. Examining the types of farmers' adaptive behaviors and the influencing mechanism among farmers' attributes, perception of climate change, and adaptive behaviors is of significance for making appropriate policies. Based on recent theoretical and empirical studies in the rain-fed agricultural areas, this study constructed a path analysis model with the perception of climate change as mediator to explore the path of impact among the variables of farmers' attributes, perception of climate change, and adaptive behaviors. The results show that: 1) The surveyed farmers showed a certain degree of recognition of local climate change and some actions adapting to climate change were taken. Among these, farmers prioritize technical measures, followed by economic measures, and few farmers adopted migration as an adaptive behavior. 2) The difference in the impact of farmers' attributes on adaptive behaviors is significant. 3) According to the mediating effects of the mediator, the model of multivariate path analysis was decomposed into three types: complete mediation model, partial mediation model, and no mediation model. Through the analysis of the above three models, it was found that farmers' attributes had an indirect impact on adaptive behaviors through mediating variables, as well as a direct impact through non-mediating variables. It indicates that the choice of adaptive behaviors depended not only on the farmers' perception of climate change, but also on their attributes. Finally, relevant policy recommendations were put forward with the aim to improve farmers' ability to cope with climate change.

Key words: climate change, farmers' attributes, perception, adaptive behaviors, path analysis

宋臻, 史兴民. 雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.

SONG Zhen, SHI Xingmin. Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 461-473.

图/表 7

图1

表1

变量定义及描述统计"

变量名称		定义	均值	标准差
性别		1=女;2=男	1.58	0.49
年龄		1=30岁以下;2=30~40岁;3=40~50岁;4=50~60岁;5=60~70岁;6=70岁以上	3.51	1.52
文化程度		1=小学及以下;2=初中;3=高中;4=大专及以上	1.70	1.05
本地居住时间		1=5 a以内;2=5~10 a;3=10~20 a;4=20~30 a;5=30 a以上	4.42	1.10
家庭农业收入		1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上	1.50	0.88
家庭非农业收入		1=1万元/a以下;2=1万~2万元/a;3=2万~3万元/a;4=3万~4万元/a;5=4万元/a以上	1.91	1.14
村到乡镇的距离		1=0~5 km;2=5~10 km;3=10~15 km;4=15~20 km;5=20 km以上	1.53	0.73
气候变化趋势感知	夏季平均气温变化	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	3.75	0.77
	冬季平均气温变化	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	3.58	0.85
	年平均降水量变化	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	2.02	0.91
	旱灾变化	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	4.06	0.82
气候变化影响感知	作物播种时间	1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后	1.85	0.63
	作物收获时间	1=提前;2=没有变化;3=推后	1.94	0.64
	作物产量	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	1.87	0.94
	病虫害	1=减少很多;2=减少一些;3=没有变化;4=增加一些;5=增加很多	4.05	0.91
	极端气候事件频发	0=否;1=是	0.63	0.48
	作物营养成分变化	0=否;1=是	0.57	0.50
技术性行为	增加农药使用量	0=否;1=是	0.72	0.45
	增加灌溉次数	0=否;1=是	0.48	0.50
	增加地膜覆盖面积	0=否;1=是	0.62	0.49
	使用保墒技术	0=否;1=是	0.84	0.37
	更换作物品种	0=否;1=是	0.41	0.49
	改变种植时间	0=否;1=是	0.33	0.47
	改变收获时间	0=否;1=是	0.32	0.47
	改变种植结构	0=否;1=是	0.52	0.50
经济性行为	增加非农收入	0=否;1=是	0.64	0.48
	外出打工	0=否;1=是	0.60	0.49
	购买保险	0=否;1=是	0.15	0.35
迁移性行为	迁移外地	0=否;1=是	0.16	0.36

表1

图2

图3

表2

表3

图4

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农户属性	技术性行为		经济性行为		迁移性行为
农户属性	F值	P值	F值	P值	F值	P值
性别	1.917	0.167	0.635	0.426	5.374	0.021
年龄	3.707	0.055	13.095	<0.001	3.345	0.068
文化程度	3.661	0.056	0.006	0.939	0.022	0.883
本地居住时间	0.273	0.602	0.064	0.800	98.465	<0.001
家庭农业收入	4.234	0.040	2.229	0.136	0.864	0.353
家庭非农业收入	0.529	0.467	75.777	<0.001	0.317	0.574
村到乡镇的距离	1.393	0.238	0.015	0.902	0.187	0.665

变量			性别	年龄	文化程度	本地居住时间	家庭农业收入	家庭非农业收入	村到乡镇的距离	气候变化趋势感知	气候变化影响感知
技术性行为	直接影响		0.041	-0.091^*	0.067	0.025	0.071^*	0.028	0.053	0.087^*	-0.013
	间接影响	m₁	0.006	0.009^*	0.007^*	-0.005	0.003	-0.003	-0.015^*	—	—
	间接影响	m₂	<0.001	<0.001	-0.001	<0.001	<0.001	<0.001	0.002	—	—
	总影响	z₁	0.047	-0.082^*	0.074^*	0.020	0.074^*	0.025	0.038^*	0.087^*	-0.013
	总影响	z₂	<0.001	-0.091	0.066	0.025	0.071^*	0.028	0.055	0.087^*	-0.013
经济性行为	直接影响		0.021	-0.151^*	-0.005	0.012	-0.052	0.293^*	<0.001	0.053	-0.040
	间接影响	m₁	0.003	0.006	0.004	-0.003	0.002	-0.002	-0.009	—	—
	间接影响	m₂	0.001	-0.001	-0.002	0.001	-0.001	<0.001	0.005	—	—
	总影响	z₁	0.024	-0.145^*	-0.001	0.009	-0.050	0.291^*	-0.009	0.053	-0.040
	总影响	z₂	0.022	-0.152^*	-0.007	0.013	-0.053	0.293^*	0.005	0.053	-0.040
迁移性行为	直接影响		0.069^*	0.071	0.005	-0.369^*	0.033	-0.017	-0.015	0.051	-0.074^*
	间接影响	m₁	0.003	0.006	0.004	-0.003	0.002	-0.002	-0.009	—	—
	间接影响	m₂	0.002	-0.002	-0.003	0.001	-0.003	<0.001	0.009^*	—	—
	总影响	z₁	0.072^*	0.077	0.009	-0.372^*	0.035	-0.019	-0.024	0.051	-0.074^*
	总影响	z₂	0.071^*	0.069	0.002	-0.368^*	0.030	-0.017	-0.006^*	0.051	-0.074^*
气候变化趋势感知	直接影响		0.065	0.109^*	0.084^*	-0.052	0.034	-0.033	-0.171^*	—	—
气候变化影响感知	直接影响		-0.027	0.029	0.046	-0.013	0.034	0.001	-0.126^*	—	—

雨养农业区农户的气候变化适应行为及影响因素路径分析

Path analysis of influencing factors of farmers’ adaptive behaviors to climate change in the rain-fed agricultural areas

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