气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

玉米作为中国第一大粮食作物,探究其生产潜力在气候变化背景下的时空变化特征对中国有效应对气候变化具有重要意义。论文结合全球农业生态区模型、极点对称模态分解方法和集对分析方法,探讨了中国玉米生产潜力的周期性波动特征及长期变化趋势,进而分析了其空间格局演变过程。结果表明：1960—2010年间,中国玉米生产潜力呈增加趋势,由1960年代的9.10亿t增至2000年代的9.45亿t左右。在年际尺度上,中国玉米生产潜力主要以准3 a和准5 a的周期进行波动;在年代际尺度上,存在准10 a和准20 a的波动周期。其中,准3 a的周期波动是中国玉米生产潜力长时间变化的最主要特征,这主要是受年降水量变化的影响。从空间格局来看,中国玉米生长适宜区主要集中在加格达奇—锡林浩特—临河—西宁—天水—中甸沿线以东;1960—2000年间,玉米生产潜力界线在中国东北部和临河—西宁沿线发生了较为明显的移动。华北平原、辽河平原、四川盆地等地区的玉米单产潜力变化趋势具有较强的一致性,松嫩平原、三江平原、关中盆地、长江中下游平原等地区的玉米单产潜力变化过程与上述地区恰好相反。在这2类地区,玉米单产潜力的变化均较显著,但变化方向在年代际尺度上具有交替性。

关键词: 玉米生产潜力, 周期性, 空间格局, 气候变化, 中国

Abstract:

Maize is China's largest food crop. Exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of maize production potential in the context of climate change is of great significance for China to effectively adapt to climate change. This study combined global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) model, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method, and set-pair analysis method to explore the periodic fluctuation characteristics and long-term trend of maize production potential in China and analyzed the process of spatial pattern change. The results show that China's maize production potential increased during 1960-2010, from 910 million tons in the 1960s to 945 million tons in the 2000s. On the interannual scale, China's maize production potential mainly fluctuated in the quasi-three-year and quasi-five-year periods; on the interdecadal scale, there were quasi-10-year and quasi-20-year fluctuation periods. The quasi-three-year periodic fluctuation was the most important feature of the long-term change of maize production potential, which was mainly affected by the change of annual precipitation. Spatially, maize growing areas were mainly concentrated in the region east of Jiagedaqi-Xilinhot-Linhe-Xining-Tianshui-Zhongdian. During the 1960s-2000s, the maize production potential boundary moved in the northeastern part of China and along the Linhe-Xining line. The trend of change of maize production potential in the North China Plain, Liaohe Plain, and Sichuan Basin showed strong consistency; however, the change process in the Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, Guanzhong Basin, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the opposite of the above. In both types of regions, the changes in maize production potential were significant, and the direction of change was alternating on the interdecadal scale.

Key words: maize production potential, periodic fluctuations, spatial pattern, climate change, China

周美君, 李飞, 邵佳琪, 杨海娟. 气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 443-453.

ZHOU Meijun, LI Fei, SHAO Jiaqi, YANG Haijuan. Change characteristics of maize production potential under the background of climate change in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 443-453.

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分量	指标	玉米生产潜力	Pre	Rad	Rhu	Tmn	Tmx	Wdf	Wnd
IMF₁	周期/a	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
IMF₁	方差贡献率/%	62.7	61.3	29.4	38.0	7.5	22.1	44.7	2.9
IMF₂	周期/a	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
IMF₂	方差贡献率/%	16.4	20.3	15.0	20.9	5.0	8.1	13.5	1.3
IMF₃	周期/a	10	10	10	7	10	10	10	13
IMF₃	方差贡献率/%	10.0	14.6	6.2	18.8	1.2	4.7	11.9	2.8
IMF₄	周期/a	20	15		15			17
IMF₄	方差贡献率/%	9.0	1.8		19.0			2.9
IMF₅	周期/a		20		20
IMF₅	方差贡献率/%		0.1		1.8
R	方差贡献率/%	1.9	0.9	49.3	1.5	86.3	65.1	27.0	93.0

周期	气候要素	方差贡献率β_jk/%	U_ij	影响度φ_ij/%
IMF₁ (准3 a)	Pre IMF₁	61.3	0.4387	33.60
	Rad IMF₁	29.4	0.1283	9.82
	Rhu IMF₁	38.0	0.2589	19.83
	Tmn IMF₁	7.5	0.0445	3.41
	Tmx IMF₁	22.1	0.1213	9.29
	Wdf IMF₁	44.7	0.3002	22.99
	Wnd IMF₁	2.9	0.0138	1.06
IMF₂ (准5 a)	Pre IMF₂	20.3	0.1234	25.69
	Rad IMF₂	15.0	0.0772	16.07
	Rhu IMF₂	20.9	0.1332	27.73
	Tmn IMF₂	5.0	0.0270	5.61
	Tmx IMF₂	8.1	0.0433	9.01
	Wdf IMF₂	13.5	0.0695	14.47
	Wnd IMF₂	1.3	0.0068	1.42
IMF₃ (准10 a)	Pre IMF₃	14.6	0.1124	43.64
	Rad IMF₃	6.2	0.0340	13.22
	Tmn IMF₃	1.2	0.0085	3.29
	Tmx IMF₃	4.7	0.0396	15.39
	Wdf IMF₃	11.9	0.0630	24.47
IMF₄ (准20 a)	Pre IMF₅	0.1	0.0002	2.33
IMF₄ (准20 a)	Rhu IMF₅	1.8	0.0099	97.67