Relationships between interannual variations of spring winds in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Northern China and winter sea surface temperature
HU Yihong1,2,3(),GONG Daoyi1,2,3,*(),MAO Rui1,2,3,SHI Xiaoxue1,2,3
1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 3. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
This study investigated possible relationships between winter sea surface temperature (SST) and the interannual variation of spring wind speed in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Northern China by employing daily wind speed observations of 64 meteorological stations, the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ERSST v5) dataset, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results show that spring wind exhibited strong year-to-year variations. During the period of 1979-2016, the interannual components accounted for 36% of the total variance. Winter SST, which affects the interannual variation of wind speed in the study area in spring, presented a negative-positive-negative distribution between 20°N-65°N in the North Atlantic, and a negative-positive distribution in the domain of 10°N-55°N and 130°W-180° in the North Pacific Ocean. Interannual variations of surface spring wind in the study area were significantly related to the North Atlantic SST index (r = 0.50) and the North Pacific SST index (r = 0.44). The large-scale atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere is the bridge that links winter SSTs and the spring wind. In association with the North Atlantic SST anomalies of negative-positive-negative distribution from high to low latitudes, a wave pattern of pressure height anomalies appeared over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. Accompanying a negative-positive distribution in North Pacific SST anomalies, the pressure height anomalies from the North Pacific to East Asia presented a three-wave pattern. Both of them can lead to an anomalous cyclonic circulation over East Asia in spring. The anomalous cyclonic circulation existed in both the middle and the lower troposphere, which was the factor directly resulting in higher wind speed over the study area. The significant correlation between winter SST and spring wind speed implies that winter SST can be used as a skillful predictor for spring wind in practice. A statistical forecast model with winter SSTs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific as predictors can explain 32% of the interannual variance of the spring wind speed. Cross-validation shows that the time lag relationship between SST and wind speed is significant and robust.
. 中国北方农牧交错带春季风速的年际变化与冬季海温的关系[J]. 地理科学进展,
2019, 38(5): 709-717.
MAO Rui et al
. Relationships between interannual variations of spring winds in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Northern China and winter sea surface temperature[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY,
2019, 38(5): 709-717.
[Wu BY, Zhang RH.2011. Interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and its association with the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the mid-high latitudes and external forcing. , 69(2): 219-233. ]
Chang CP, ZhangY, LiT.2000. Interannual and interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part II: Meridional structure of the monsoon[J]. , 13(24): 4326-4340.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282000%29013%3C4326%3AIAIVOT%3E2.0.CO%3B2
ChouC, Tu JY, Yu JY.2003. Interannual variability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon: Differences between ENSO and non-ENSO years[J]. , 16(13): 2275-2287.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2761.1
LiS, Luj, HuangG, et al.2008. Tropical Indian Ocean basin warming and East Asian summer monsoon: A multiple AGCM study[J]. , 21(22): 6080-6088.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2433.1
WangB, WuR, FuX.2000. Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate?[J]. , 13(9):1517-1536.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282000%29013%3C1517%3APEATHD%3E2.0.CO%3B2
WuJ, ZhaJ, ZhaoD.2017. Evaluating the effects of land use and cover change on the decrease of surface wind speed over China in recent 30 years using a statistical downscaling method[J]. , 48(1-2): 131-149.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-016-3065-z
WuZ, WangB, LiJ, et al.2009. An empirical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO[J]. , 114, D18120, doi: 10.1029/2009JD011733.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009JD011733
XieS, HuK, HafnerJ, et al.2009. Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-Western Pacific climate during the summer following El Nino[J]. , 22(3): 730-747.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2544.1
XuM, Chang CP, FuC, et al.2006. Steady decline of East Asian monsoon winds, 1969-2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed[J]. , D24111, doi: 10.1029/2006JD007337.
YangJ, LiuQ, LiuZ.2010. Linking observations of the Asian monsoon to the Indian Ocean SST: Possible roles of Indian Ocean basin mode and dipole mode[J]. , 23(21): 5889-5902.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI2962.1
ZhaoP, ZhangX, ZhouX, et al.2004. The sea ice extent anomaly in the North Pacific and its impact on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall[J]. , 17(17): 3434-3447.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C3434%3ATSIEAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2