基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.003

地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 175-190.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.003

基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展

张会^1,²(), 李铖³, 程炯³, 吴志峰^4,^*(), 吴艳艳⁴

1. 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州 510640
2. 中国科学院大学,北京100049
3. 广东省生态环境技术研究所,广州 510650
4. 广州大学地理科学学院,广州 510006

收稿日期:2018-03-30 修回日期:2018-09-14 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
通讯作者: 吴志峰
作者简介:
第一作者简介：张会(1987— ),女,河南驻马店人,博士生,主要从事遥感与GIS应用研究、城市洪涝风险评估研究。E-mail: huihui945726@163.com
基金资助:
广东省科技计划项目(2016A020223009);国家自然科学基金项目(41671430)

A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability

Hui ZHANG^1,²(), Cheng LI³, Jiong CHENG³, Zhifeng WU^4,^*(), Yanyan WU⁴

1. Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, CAS, Guangzhou 510640, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management, Guangdong Institute of Eco-environmental Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510650, China
4. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China

Received:2018-03-30 Revised:2018-09-14 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28
Contact: Zhifeng WU
Supported by:
The Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Province, No. 2016A020223009;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41671430.

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面：①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。

关键词: 城市洪涝风险评估, 危险性, 暴露性, 脆弱性, 气候变化, 城市扩张

Abstract:

In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, urban floods frequently cause serious social problems and economic losses. Flood risk assessment as the main content of urban flood management has received extensive attention. This article first presents the conceptual framework of urban flood risk assessment and the function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It then reviews their main research contents respectively, analyzes the strengths and limitations of different research methods in the perspective of urban flood risk management. We conclude that the development trends of urban flood risk assessment include the following four aspects: 1) With regard to flood hazard evaluation, developing the two-dimensional hydraulics flood inundation model incorporating different sources of floods in urban areas such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal floods is imperative for urban flood risk assessment. 2) Exposure evaluation is moving towards more refined and dynamic evaluation with the support of big data and GIS. 3) Vulnerability assessment is shifting from the quantitative evaluation of the physical dimension to multi-dimensional assessments, such as social, economic, cultural, environmental, and others. 4) In addition, semi-quantitative and quantitative urban flood risk assessment combined with climate change and urban expansion considerations under multiple scenarios is also an important component of future urban flood management.

Key words: urban flood risk assessment, hazards, exposure, vulnerability, climate change, urban expansion

张会, 李铖, 程炯, 吴志峰, 吴艳艳. 基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.

Hui ZHANG, Cheng LI, Jiong CHENG, Zhifeng WU, Yanyan WU. A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.

图/表 1

表1

城市洪涝风险评估研究案例方法介绍"

案例	洪涝源类型	方法				气候变与城市扩张	结果形式
案例	洪涝源类型	危险性	暴露性	脆弱性	综合	气候变与城市扩张	结果形式
Zonensein et al, 2008	城市雨季洪涝	水文水力学模型	基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析	多准则指标法	GIS的多准则指标法	—	风险等级图(半定量)
Yin et al, 2011; Li C et al, 2016	城市雨季洪涝	SCS/UFSM模型	实地调查的GIS空间分析	灾损曲线	EAD	—	损失值(定量)
Lang et al, 2016	城市河流洪涝	MLFP-2D模型	土地利用图的GIS空间分析	灾损曲线	EAD	—	同上
Meyer et al, 2009	城市河流洪涝	FloodCalc模型	基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析	灾损曲线,指标法	预期损失函数/GIS的多准则指标法	—	风险等级图、损失值
Camarasa-Belmonte et al, 2012	城市河流洪涝	水文地貌法	基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析	—	—	—	风险等级图
Domeneghetti et al, 2015	城市河流洪涝	Quasi-2D 模型	基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析	灾损曲线,指标法	预期损失函数	—	损失值
Fekete et al, 2017	城市河流洪涝	历史灾情法	实地调查的GIS空间分析	多准则指标法	基于GIS的多准则指标法	—	风险等级图
Li M et al, 2016	沿海洪涝	MIKE 21模型	基于土地利用图GIS空间分析	实地调查	GIS空间分析	—	风险等级图
Araya-Mu?oz et al, 2017	城市河流与沿海洪涝	—	多准则指标法	多准则指标法	空间模糊逻辑方法	—	风险等级图
Chinch et al, 2017	城市雨季/河流洪涝	综合水文水力学模型	基于土地利用图的GIS空间分析	灾损曲线	EAD	气候变化	损失值
Zhou et al, 2012	城市雨季洪涝	MIKE Urban	GIS空间分析	灾损曲线	EAD	气候变化	损失值及成本效益评估
Moore et al, 2016	城市雨季洪涝	SWMM	GIS空间分析	排水管网脆弱性	—	气候变化,城市扩张	成本效益评估

表1

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基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展

A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability

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