地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 175-190.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.003
张会1,2(), 李铖3, 程炯3, 吴志峰4,*(
), 吴艳艳4
收稿日期:
2018-03-30
修回日期:
2018-09-14
出版日期:
2019-02-28
发布日期:
2019-02-28
通讯作者:
吴志峰
作者简介:
第一作者简介:张会(1987— ),女,河南驻马店人,博士生,主要从事遥感与GIS应用研究、城市洪涝风险评估研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Hui ZHANG1,2(), Cheng LI3, Jiong CHENG3, Zhifeng WU4,*(
), Yanyan WU4
Received:
2018-03-30
Revised:
2018-09-14
Online:
2019-02-28
Published:
2019-02-28
Contact:
Zhifeng WU
Supported by:
摘要:
在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面:①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。
张会, 李铖, 程炯, 吴志峰, 吴艳艳. 基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.
Hui ZHANG, Cheng LI, Jiong CHENG, Zhifeng WU, Yanyan WU. A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(2): 175-190.
表1
城市洪涝风险评估研究案例方法介绍"
案例 | 洪涝源类型 | 方法 | 气候变与 城市扩张 | 结果形式 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
危险性 | 暴露性 | 脆弱性 | 综合 | ||||
城市雨季洪涝 | 水文水力学模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 多准则指标法 | GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图(半定量) | |
城市雨季洪涝 | SCS/UFSM模型 | 实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | — | 损失值(定量) | |
城市河流洪涝 | MLFP-2D模型 | 土地利用图的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | — | 同上 | |
城市河流洪涝 | FloodCalc模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线,指标法 | 预期损失函数/GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图、损失值 | |
城市河流洪涝 | 水文地貌法 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | — | — | — | 风险等级图 | |
城市河流洪涝 | Quasi-2D 模型 | 基于普查数据、实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线,指标法 | 预期损失函数 | — | 损失值 | |
城市河流洪涝 | 历史灾情法 | 实地调查的GIS空间分析 | 多准则指标法 | 基于GIS的多准则指标法 | — | 风险等级图 | |
沿海洪涝 | MIKE 21模型 | 基于土地利用图GIS空间分析 | 实地调查 | GIS空间分析 | — | 风险等级图 | |
城市河流与沿海洪涝 | — | 多准则指标法 | 多准则指标法 | 空间模糊逻辑方法 | — | 风险等级图 | |
城市雨季/河流洪涝 | 综合水文水力学模型 | 基于土地利用图的GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | 气候变化 | 损失值 | |
城市雨季洪涝 | MIKE Urban | GIS空间分析 | 灾损曲线 | EAD | 气候变化 | 损失值及成本效益评估 | |
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