基于降水条件的城镇化与植被覆盖协调发展研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.10.005

地理科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (10): 1352-1361.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.10.005

基于降水条件的城镇化与植被覆盖协调发展研究

温小洁¹(), 姚顺波^2,^*(), 赵敏娟³

1. 西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌 712100
2. 西北农林科技大学资源经济与环境管理研究中心,陕西杨凌 712100
3. 西北农林科技大学应用经济中心,陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2018-01-09 修回日期:2018-08-01 出版日期:2018-10-28 发布日期:2018-10-28
通讯作者: 姚顺波
作者简介:
作者简介：温小洁(1994-),女,山西河津人,硕士生,主要从事资源经济与环境管理研究,E-mail: wenxiaojie3990@163.com。
基金资助:
林业公益性行业科研专项(201504424);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地基金项目(14JJD790031);国家自然科学基金项目(71473195);国家社会科学基金项目(15ZDA052)

Coordinating the development of urbanization and vegetation coverage based on precipitation

Xiaojie WEN¹(), Shunbo YAO^2,^*(), Minjuan ZHAO³

1. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
2. Research Center for Resource Economics and Environment Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;
3. Research Center for Applied Economics, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China;

Received:2018-01-09 Revised:2018-08-01 Online:2018-10-28 Published:2018-10-28
Contact: Shunbo YAO
Supported by:
Special Fund for Forest Scientific Research in the Public Welfare, No.201504424;The MOE Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences in Universities, No.14JJD790031;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71473195;National Social Science Foundation of China, No.15ZDA052

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探讨城镇化发展与植被覆盖状况的协调发展关系,本文以黄河中上游的144个县域单元为研究对象,基于2000、2005、2010及2015年4期的县域经济发展数据及MODIS-NDVI数据,通过门槛回归模型,以影响研究区域植被覆盖最主要的降水因素作为门槛变量,具体分析不同降水条件下城镇化发展对植被覆盖的影响,并提出以保护植被覆盖为基础的差异化城镇化发展策略。结果表明：①随着城镇化的推进,植被覆盖会进一步遭到破坏,但降水因素在城镇化影响植被覆盖的过程中可发挥显著的正向调节作用,从而促进城镇化与植被覆盖的协调发展;②实现城镇化与植被覆盖的协调发展,不仅取决于自身的降水条件,还依赖于当地的生态工程建设及产业结构优化升级等多种因素。其中,退耕还林(草)政策的实施可加速植被覆盖的修复进程,提高区域环境的生态承载力,有效缓解城镇化发展带给植被覆盖的负面影响;③第二产业在经济发展中的比重增加会给植被覆盖带来严重威胁,阻碍城镇化与植被覆盖的协调发展,尤其是在年均降水量较少且生态脆弱的地区。

关键词: 降水, 城镇化, 植被覆盖, 归一化植被指数, 门槛效应, 黄河中上游

Abstract:

In order to explore the coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage, this study used the economic development and MODIS-NDVI data of 144 counties in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015 and the threshold regression model to analyze the influence of urbanization on vegetation coverage under different precipitation conditions. Precipitation was taken as the threshold variable that exerts the most significant impact on vegetation coverage. The results show that: (1) Along with the advancement of urbanization, vegetation covers are damaged, but precipitation during the process can play an important role in adjusting the relationship positively and promote the joint development of urbanization and the vegetation coverage. (2) The coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage depends not only on precipitation, but also on local ecological construction, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and so on. The implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Program on the Loess Plateau can accelerate the restoration of the vegetation cover, improve the ecological carrying capacity of the regional environment, and effectively alleviate the negative impact of urbanization development on vegetation coverage. (3) The increase of the proportion of the secondary industry in economic development poses a serious threat to the vegetation, which may halt the coordinated development of urbanization and vegetation coverage, especially in areas with low annual rainfall.

Key words: precipitation, urbanization, vegetation coverage, NDVI, threshold effect, middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin

温小洁, 姚顺波, 赵敏娟. 基于降水条件的城镇化与植被覆盖协调发展研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(10): 1352-1361.

Xiaojie WEN, Shunbo YAO, Minjuan ZHAO. Coordinating the development of urbanization and vegetation coverage based on precipitation[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(10): 1352-1361.

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变量类型	变量	变量名称	变量说明	均值	标准差	样本个数
被解释变量	NDVI	归一化植被指数	数据提取	0.674	0.188	612
核心解释变量	LU	城镇化率	建设用地增速/%	16.388	24.341	590
门槛变量	RF	年均降水量	数据提取	471.800	132.922	612
控制变量	POLICY	退耕还林政策	虚拟变量;实施=1;未实施=0	-	-	612
	IS	产业结构	第二产业比重/%	0.401	0.235	511
	PFA	人均固定资产投资	人均基础建设投资完成额/(万元/人)	1.302	2.200	512
	PGDP	人均生产总值	人均GDP/(万元/人)	1.381	2.042	511
	PQ	人口素质	普通中学在校人数/人	20830	14367	517

NDVI	相关系数	标准误	z值	P值	95%置信区间
LU	-0.020	0.111	5.06^***	0.000	[0.344, 0.780]
RF×LU	0.562	0.005	-4.20^***	0.000	[-0.030, -0.011]
常数项	0.333	0.104	3.20^***	0.001	[0.129, 0.537]

门槛变量	门槛模型	F值	P值		临界值
门槛变量	门槛模型	F值	P值	1%	5%	10%
RF	单一门槛	28.505^***	0.000	9.284	5.163	4.255
	双重门槛	104.748^***	0.000	-30.508	-37.246	-41.425
	三重门槛	0.000^**	0.050	0.000	0.000	0.000

门槛模型	门槛估计值	95%置信区间
单一门槛模型	496.530	[483.532, 525.545]
双重门槛模型
第一门槛值	347.340	[342.600, 347.340 ]
第二门槛值	199.833	[199.833, 199.833 ]
三重门槛模型	262.093	[258.506, 265.680 ]

lnNDVI	系数	标准误	t值	P值	95%置信区间
POLICY	0.084	0.025	3.34^***	0.001	[0.035, 0.134]
lnIS	-0.061	0.018	-3.35^***	0.001	[-0.097, -0.025]
lnPFA	-0.004	0.010	-0.38	0.707	[-0.023, 0.016]
lnPGDP	0.071	0.017	4.19^***	0.000	[-0.038, 0.105]
lnPQ	-0.058	0.011	-5.32^***	0.000	[-0.079, -0.036]
lnLU₁(RF≤199.833)	-0.019	0.021	-0.90	0.368	[-0.060, 0.022]
lnLU₂(199.833<RF≤347.340)	-0.096	0.014	-7.06^***	0.000	[-0.123, -0.069]
lnLU₃(RF>347.340)	0.033	0.009	3.65^***	0.000	[0.015, 0.050]
常数项	-0.010	0.106	-0.09	0.925	[-0.217, -0.197]

基于降水条件的城镇化与植被覆盖协调发展研究

Coordinating the development of urbanization and vegetation coverage based on precipitation

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