县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.08.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2000年以来,中国的老龄化进程加快,人口老龄化已经成为中国社会经济发展必须面对的新常态与核心问题之一。本文从县域尺度出发,基于2000和2010年的人口普查数据,应用标准差椭圆、地理探测器等方法,分析了10年间中国2283个县域单元人口老龄化的空间分布、区域差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①人口老龄化空间分布模式多样,胡焕庸线西北半壁以均质化、轴带特征为主;而胡焕庸线东南半壁则呈现出核心—外围的分布特征。②2000-2010年间,人口老龄化均值从6.7%增至8.7%,表明中国县域全面进入老年型社会,步入老年型的县域多集中于内陆、东北地区、丝绸之路经济带沿线区;10年间人口老龄化总体空间格局较为稳定,但人口老龄化的变动趋势差异显著。③人口老龄化在“胡焕庸线”两侧、不同地域类型间、城乡间、民族自治地区与非民族自治地区间、贫困与非贫困地区间存在差异,且差异变动的方向并不一致。④影响人口老龄化的核心因素为各区域往期人口年龄结构、步入老年序列人口比重、人口流出的比例等。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 县域尺度, 空间格局, 区域差异, 中国

Abstract:

Population ageing is becoming one of the major challenges that cannot be overlooked in the process of socioeconomic development in china. China has entered into the ageing society since 2000. Based on the county-scale data in the 2000 and 2010 censuses and using standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and geographical detector methods, this study systematically analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics and regional differences of population ageing. The results are as follows: First, Population ageing varies spatially. Population ageing on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau usually shows an even distribution. Population ageing on the southeastern side of China usually shows a center-periphery type of distribution and coastal-inland contrast. Second, the mean value of aged population proportion increased from 6.7% to 8.0% between 2000 and 2010. By 2010, China had become an aged society. The counties that had high percentage of aged population concentrated in the interior, the Northeast, and along the silk road economic region. The spatial pattern of population ageing is relatively stable, but significant difference was found in the trend of population ageing change. Third, there are regional differences in the population ageing of China, characterized by differences between urban areas and the countryside, ethnic minority regions and other regions, and poverty-stricken region and non-poverty areas. But the direction of change is not consistent. Last, There are many factors affecting population ageing level of counties, mainly including population ageing of the year 2000, population age structure, natural conditions, emigration rate, and economic development stage. The distribution of social and economic development level was not consistent with the distribution of population ageing change.

Key words: population ageing, county scale, spatial pattern, regional differences, China

王录仓, 武荣伟, 刘海猛, 周鹏, 康江江. 县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(8): 921-931.

Lucang WANG, Rongwei WU, Haimeng LIU, Peng ZHOU, Jiangjiang KANG. Spatial patterns and regional differences of population ageing in China based on the county scale[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2016, 35(8): 921-931.

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人口类型	2000年			2010年
人口类型	县域数量		主要分布区	县域数量	主要分布区
年轻型(N)	100	中国北部边境线及甘、青、新交界处		21	零星分布在西藏、青海、新疆及深圳、东莞等区域
成年型I期(C₁)	470	胡焕庸线西北半壁及东北地区		149	胡焕庸线西北半壁、珠江三角洲核心区
成年型II期(C₂)	749	黄土高原、云贵高原、湖北、江西等区域		294	内蒙古、新疆等区域
老年型I期(L₁)	910	东部沿海与川渝地区		1199	兰新铁路沿线、黄土高原、云贵高原、东北、江西等区域
老年型II期(L₂)	54	江浙地带		600	东部沿海与川渝地区
老年型III期(L₃)	0	无		20	零散分布于江苏、四川等地区

年份	中心坐标	长半轴/km	短半轴/km	方位角/°
2000	111.81° E,32.92° N	1150.87	954.63	48.85
2010	111.72° E,33.07° N	1161.18	955.25	44.29

生态地区	老年人口数/万			老龄化程度/%			方差
生态地区	2000年		2010年		2000年	2010年	2000年	2010年
东北生态地区	914.2	1317.2		6.76	8.85		0.0179	0.0218
华北生态地区	2033.5	2558.4		7.56	9.12		0.0118	0.0155
内蒙古高原生态地区	109.1	165.3		5.86	7.71		0.0155	0.0235
西北干旱生态地区	115.4	189.5		4.70	6.78		0.0089	0.0175
黄土高原生态地区	499.7	707.7		5.90	7.92		0.0127	0.0162
川渝生态地区	1218.9	1680.6		7.56	10.67		0.0122	0.0197
长江中下游生态地区	1660.5	2227.4		8.06	9.90		0.0209	0.0237
华南生态地区	1804.6	2383.0		6.88	8.04		0.0154	0.0204
云贵高原生态地区	423.8	598.5		5.94	7.95		0.0116	0.0144
青藏高原高寒生态地区	20.0	28.2		3.65	5.25		0.0094	0.0110
横断山区生态地区	27.8	37.0		5.70	6.86		0.0077	0.0125
全国	8827.4	11892.7		7.10	8.92		0.0176	0.0225

年份	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄化程度/%
2000	城镇	45877.10	36.91	2946.52	24.78	6.42
2000	乡村	78384.12	63.08	5880.88	66.62	7.50
2010	城镇	67000.55	50.27	5225.42	43.94	7.80
2010	乡村	66280.53	49.73	6667.29	56.06	10.06
2000	城区	33426.36	26.90	2310.55	26.17	6.91
2000	县域	90834.87	73.10	6516.85	73.83	7.17
2010	城区	41887.05	31.43	3472.98	29.20	8.29
2010	县域	91389.32	68.57	8419.72	70.80	9.21

时间	分类	总人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄人口/万	占全国比重/%	老龄化程度/%
2000年	民族自治区	14212.04	11.44	872.53	9.88	6.14
2000年	非自治区	110049.18	88.56	7954.87	90.12	7.23
2010年	民族自治区	14393.26	10.80	1174.76	9.88	8.16
2010年	非自治区	118883.11	89.20	10717.93	90.12	9.02