重力模型参数空间差异研究——以中国城市间铁路客流为例

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

重力模型是重要的空间相互作用模型,已经在相关研究和实践中得到了广泛应用。在重力模型应用中,结果对参数的敏感性较高,不同的参数设置就可能导致结果体系的巨大差异,故精确的参数是重力模型应用的基础。许多研究关注了重力模型参数的提取,但限于数据等因素,参数在空间上的差异性尚未得到充分的重视。本文采用2010年城市间铁路客运量作为城市间相互作用强度的反映,以城市市辖区居民总可支配收入作为城市的“质量”,刻画城市本身的吸引力,进而通过回归分析考察重力模型的参数结果;并结合地理信息系统的空间插值工具,分析重力模型中各个参数的空间差异并得到可视化结果。相比于既有研究,本文在变量选取中增加了城市间列车交流频次这一变量,与平均运行时间结合共同反映城市之间的“距离”,使模型拟合结果得到较大改进。结果表明,重力模型参数取值在空间上存在显著差异,对不同区域使用统一的重力模型参数可能使结果出现较大偏差,因此将重力模型应用到具体实践中时,不能忽略参数的空间异质性。

关键词: 铁路客流, 距离衰减系数, 重力模型参数, 空间分布, 中国

Abstract:

As a useful spatial interaction modeling method, gravity models have been widely applied in geographic research. The results of gravity models are sensitive to model parameters, which may lead to significant variation in modeling results when different sets of parameters are used. Therefore accurate parameters are essential to the application of gravity models. Although there have been various studies on the calibration of gravity model parameters, spatial heterogeneity of model parameters has not been carefully considered due to the lack of necessary data for such analysis. In this study we took the volume of China's railway passengers between city pairs in 2010 as the indicator of the magnitude of spatial interaction between cities. Nodal attraction of cities was depicted by the total disposable income of residents in the city areas, which represents the attraction of a city. Compared to the existing literature, this study modified the basic form of gravity model and introduced frequency of trains as a variable into the model, representing the spatial separation between city pairs along with travel time. This adjustment produced improved goodness-of-fit result. Three parameters in the modified gravity model were tested: nodal attraction, α; travel time, β; and frequency, γ. Spatial heterogeneity of each parameter was analyzed by means of regression analysis and GIS. The results show that β has the largest range, followed by α and γ. The research indicates that remarkable spatial heterogeneity exists and cannot be overlooked. Using a single set of parameters of gravity model for different regions may not be appropriate.

Key words: railway passenger flow, distance decay parameter, gravity model parameter, spatial distribution, China

中图分类号:

K901

郑清菁, 戴特奇, 陶卓霖, 张萌萌. 重力模型参数空间差异研究——以中国城市间铁路客流为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(12): 1659-1665.

Qingjing ZHENG, Teqi DAI, Zhuolin TAO, Mengmeng ZHANG. Spatial heterogeneity of gravity model parameters: a case study of inter-city railway passenger flow in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1659-1665.

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	γ	β	调整R²	F检验值(sig.)
不含频次		-1.315(0.014)	0.519	5696.462(0.000)
含频次	0.719(0.012)	-0.709(0.016)	0.608	6152.025(0.000)