地理科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1601-1613.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.003

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金融危机下泛长三角FDI时空格局演化及其机制研究

吴加伟1,2(), 袁丰1, 吕卫国1, 王桂玲2,3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京100049
    3. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐 830011
  • 出版日期:2014-12-19 发布日期:2014-12-19
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴加伟(1990-),男,江苏南京人,硕士研究生,主要从事城市发展战略与空间规划研究,E-mail: jwwu@niglas.ac.cn。

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院“一三五”重点项目(NIGLAS2012135006);中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所引进人才项目(NIGLAS2012QD14)

Spatiotemporal change of foreign direct investment and mechanism in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area under the global financial crisis

Jiawei WU1,2(), Feng YUAN1, Weiguo LV1, Guiling WANG2,3   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Online:2014-12-19 Published:2014-12-19

摘要:

在华FDI的区域差异及其区位选择的演化过程与机制,受企业属性、产业特性及来源国和承接国社会经济环境等多种因素影响。在国际金融危机冲击下,全球虚拟与实体经济波动、国际产业转移新趋势与国家宏观政策新导向等内外部因素不断重构在华FDI时空格局演变过程与机制。基于路径依赖、外部冲击等理论分析框架,本文以泛长三角地区为例,首先从总量、行业与区位选择等方面分析了金融危机前后FDI的时空演变过程;其次通过计量模型对FDI区位选择影响因素演变过程进行实证研究。研究表明,金融危机前后泛长三角FDI区位选择及其影响因素转变遵循路径依赖动态演化模式,主要表现为原有演化路径受到金融危机冲击,伴随市场环境、生产要素成本、创新环境、集聚经济和沉淀成本、制度环境等内外生因素影响,FDI总量、行业与区位选择的演化趋势也呈现出复杂性与多样化。

关键词: FDI, 区位选择, 路径依赖, 外部冲击, 国际金融危机, 面板数据分析, 泛长三角

Abstract:

The regional disparity and determining factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) locations are influenced by industrial characteristics, corporate attributes, and the social and economic environments of the home country and receiving country. Changes in the location choice of FDI and influencing factors have occurred under the background of global financial crisis. Based on the theory of path dependence, we choose the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area as an example to study such change. First, we analyzed the process of spatiotemporal evolution of FDI in terms of total amount, target industry, and location choice before and after the global financial crisis. Then we explored the change in the determining factors of FDI locations and their influences through a panel data analysis model. Our study suggests that the evolution of the location choice of FDI and its influencing factors in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area followed the path dependence model. The original evolution path of FDI was shocked by the global financial crisis, and with the dynamic change of internal and external factors such as market circumstances, factor cost, innovative milieu, agglomeration economies, suck cost, and institutional environment and their influences, the trends of total amount, target industry, and location choice of FDI showed high complexity and diversity. Specifically, the total amount of FDI experienced negative growth under the economic crisis, but along with the resuscitation of the world economy, its growth has recovered. Although the regional difference of target industry is huge, services will become the largest business for FDI in China. Moreover, because of the transformation of factor cost, policy environment, among others, it is an inevitable trend that FDI of labor/resource/pollution-intensive industries will shift from coastal areas to central and western China. However, on account of the market circumstances, innovative milieu, agglomeration economies, and so on, FDI in high-end manufacturing and service sectors will continue to gather towards urban areas.

Key words: FDI, location choice, path dependence, shock, global financial crisis, panel data analysis, the Pan-Yangtze River Delta

中图分类号: 

  • F207