金融危机下泛长三角FDI时空格局演化及其机制研究

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在华FDI的区域差异及其区位选择的演化过程与机制,受企业属性、产业特性及来源国和承接国社会经济环境等多种因素影响。在国际金融危机冲击下,全球虚拟与实体经济波动、国际产业转移新趋势与国家宏观政策新导向等内外部因素不断重构在华FDI时空格局演变过程与机制。基于路径依赖、外部冲击等理论分析框架,本文以泛长三角地区为例,首先从总量、行业与区位选择等方面分析了金融危机前后FDI的时空演变过程;其次通过计量模型对FDI区位选择影响因素演变过程进行实证研究。研究表明,金融危机前后泛长三角FDI区位选择及其影响因素转变遵循路径依赖动态演化模式,主要表现为原有演化路径受到金融危机冲击,伴随市场环境、生产要素成本、创新环境、集聚经济和沉淀成本、制度环境等内外生因素影响,FDI总量、行业与区位选择的演化趋势也呈现出复杂性与多样化。

关键词: FDI, 区位选择, 路径依赖, 外部冲击, 国际金融危机, 面板数据分析, 泛长三角

Abstract:

The regional disparity and determining factors of foreign direct investment (FDI) locations are influenced by industrial characteristics, corporate attributes, and the social and economic environments of the home country and receiving country. Changes in the location choice of FDI and influencing factors have occurred under the background of global financial crisis. Based on the theory of path dependence, we choose the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area as an example to study such change. First, we analyzed the process of spatiotemporal evolution of FDI in terms of total amount, target industry, and location choice before and after the global financial crisis. Then we explored the change in the determining factors of FDI locations and their influences through a panel data analysis model. Our study suggests that the evolution of the location choice of FDI and its influencing factors in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area followed the path dependence model. The original evolution path of FDI was shocked by the global financial crisis, and with the dynamic change of internal and external factors such as market circumstances, factor cost, innovative milieu, agglomeration economies, suck cost, and institutional environment and their influences, the trends of total amount, target industry, and location choice of FDI showed high complexity and diversity. Specifically, the total amount of FDI experienced negative growth under the economic crisis, but along with the resuscitation of the world economy, its growth has recovered. Although the regional difference of target industry is huge, services will become the largest business for FDI in China. Moreover, because of the transformation of factor cost, policy environment, among others, it is an inevitable trend that FDI of labor/resource/pollution-intensive industries will shift from coastal areas to central and western China. However, on account of the market circumstances, innovative milieu, agglomeration economies, and so on, FDI in high-end manufacturing and service sectors will continue to gather towards urban areas.

Key words: FDI, location choice, path dependence, shock, global financial crisis, panel data analysis, the Pan-Yangtze River Delta

中图分类号:

F207

吴加伟, 袁丰, 吕卫国, 王桂玲. 金融危机下泛长三角FDI时空格局演化及其机制研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(12): 1601-1613.

Jiawei WU, Feng YUAN, Weiguo LV, Guiling WANG. Spatiotemporal change of foreign direct investment and mechanism in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta area under the global financial crisis[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1601-1613.

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FDI区位决定因素		变量与及其说明	预期效果
市场环境	市场规模	PRETA(全社会消费品零售总额/人口)	+
	市场需求	PRETA(全社会消费品零售总额/人口)	+
	市场外向度	OPEN(进出口贸易总额/GDP)	+
生产要素成本	劳动力成本	WAGE(地区职工平均工资)	-
创新环境	创新投入	R&D(教育与科学事业费支出)	+
创新环境	创新人才	TECH(科研与技术服务业从业人数)	+
集聚经济与沉淀成本	地方化经济	CFDI(至前一年累计实际利用外资总额)	+/-
	城市化经济	PINV(全社会固定资产投资总额/从业人员总量)	+
	沉淀成本	VGO(外资企业工业总产值/地区工业总产值)	+
区域制度环境	市场化水平开放程度产业政策	POL(依据国家区域政策、国家级开发区数量等资料进行定量化)	+

变量系数	2004-2007			2008-2012				2004-2012
变量系数	泛长三角		核心区	外围区	泛长三角	核心区	外围区	泛长三角	核心区	外围区
常数项	4.158^***	10.05	-0.187	-0.095^*	-1.713^**	-2.590		-0.475	-0.338	-0.527
PRETA	0.182^***	-0.170	0.166^**	0.271^***	0.067^*	0.513		0.230^***	-0.206	0.250^**
OPEN	0.050^*	-6.228	0.049^**	-0.031^*	0.002^*	-0.017^**		0.003	-0.458^*	0.001^**
WAGE	0.119^*	0.154	0.090^*	0.090	0.153	0.084		0.225^***	0.203	0.331^*
R&D	1.002^***	0.051	1.576	-0.019^*	-0.039^**	-0.001^**		-0.018	-0.053^*	0.022^**
TECH	0.776^***	0.361	0.656^**	-0.041	0.033^*	0.052^**		0.503^***	0.452^*	0.683^*
CFDI	-0.138	0.557	-0.079^**	0.811^***	0.030	0.181		-0.005	0.488^*	-0.018^**
PINV	0.045	0.002^***	-0.005^**	-0.011	-0.076^**	-0.089^**		0.175^***	-0.005^**	0.148^**
VGO	-0.064	-0.039^**	-0.130^*	0.099^**	0.163^*	0.049^*		-0.042	-0.004^**	0.048^*
POL	0.012	4.851	-0.219	-0.306^***	-0.007^***	-0.006^***		0.013	0.009^**	-0.021^***
调整R² F	0.975 132.9^***	0.990 274.0^***	0.950 62.2^***	0.996 1009.2^***	0.992 427.8^***	0.983 246.8^***		0.955 166.8^***	0.950 114.7^***	0.899 66.4^***
Hausman检验值	28.3^***	26.0^***	41.1^***	47.1^***	61.3^***	27.7^***		91.9^***	66.8^***	23.2^***