京津冀地区城镇空间扩张模拟与分析

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.02.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

准确把握城镇扩张过程中空间形态的变化规律对城镇规划水平的提高具有重要的现实意义。当前,京津冀的协同发展已上升为国家战略,为了对京津冀远景的城镇增长进行预测,本文将北京城市空间发展分析模型(BUDEM)扩展到京津冀(JJJ)区域,构建了京津冀城镇空间发展分析模型(BUDEM-JJJ)。该模型以城市增长理论和约束性元胞自动机(Constrained Cellular Automata, Constrained CA)模型为基础,以京津冀区域为研究对象,以Logistic回归和单一参数循环方法(Monoloop)为模型参数识别方法,利用2000-2005年和2005-2010年两个历史阶段的城镇建设用地数据对模型进行了参数识别,并进行了模型验证。在此基础上,对京津冀区域2049年的城镇形态进行了多种情景模拟,分析了不同发展情景(Scenario)下京津冀地区城镇空间发展格局的变化,可为当前京津冀城镇发展方向的调整和下一轮的城镇规划提供参考。

关键词: 元胞自动机, BUDEM-JJJ, 城镇扩张, 模拟, 京津冀

Abstract:

In order to predict future urban layout in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), we developed a BUDEM-JJJ model on the basis of the Beijing urban development model (BUDEM). BUDEM, based on prevalent urban growth theory and constrained cellular automatic, was developed in 2008 for analyzing and simulating urban growth for the Beijing Metropolitan Area(BMA). It is proved that the model is capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China. In this research, we extended the study of BUDEM from the BMA to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), via replacing the datasets of the model and making necessary adjustments to the parameters. In BUDEM-JJJ, the parameters include minimum distance to the center of Beijing (f_ctr_bj), minimum distance to the centers of Tianjin and Shijiazhuang (f_ctr_tjsjz), minimum distance to the centers of prefecture-level cities of Hebei province (f_ctr_other), minimum distance to the centers of other urban areas (f_ctr_cty), minimum distance to railways (f_rail), minimum distance to highways (f_r_hig), minimum distance to national roads (f_r_nat), minimum distance to provincial roads (f_r_pro), location in or outside areas prohibited for construction (constrain), and neighborhood development intensity (neighbor). The model BUDEM-JJJ was used to identify urban growth mechanisms in two historical phases from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010, to simulate urban growth scenarios for 2049. Six urban growth scenarios were put forward, including the base (business as usual) scenario, high-speed growth scenario, low-speed growth scenario, highway finger-shaped growth scenario, small cities and towns promoting growth scenario, and transportation-led growth scenario. BUDEM-JJJ considers the heterogeneity of driving force and model parameters, and fulfills accurate simulation in large-scale. Using the model urban layout can be predicted for each scenario. From the number of increased cellular and the occupation of farmland, grassland, forestland, and unused land, we found that the different scenarios have different effects on the environment. BUDEM-JJJ is the first applicable urban growth model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. These scenarios can be applied in several planning projects and also can be used to evaluate the present urban growth rate.

Key words: cellular automata, BUDEM-JJJ, urban expansion, simulation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

刘翠玲, 龙瀛. 京津冀地区城镇空间扩张模拟与分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(2): 217-.

Cuiling LIU, Ying LONG. Urban expansion simulation and analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2015, 34(2): 217-.

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类型	变量	最大值	均值	标准差	数据
空间约束	与北京中心的距离	1	0.0029	0.0269	图1a
	与天津、石家庄中心的距离	1	0.0059	0.0380	图1b
	与河北地级市中心的距离	1	0.0254	0.0767	图1c
	与京津冀小城镇的距离	1	0.2082	0.1931	图1d
	与铁路的距离	1	0.3797	0.3141	图1e
	与高速公路的距离	1	0.2662	0.3043	图1f
	与国道的距离	1	0.3690	0.2925	图1g
	与省道的距离	1	0.5519	0.2711	图1h
制度性约束	是否为禁止建设区	1	0.1300	0.3350	图1i
邻域约束	邻域内城镇建设元胞数目/8	1	-	-	-

时段	权重	0的数目	1的数目	比例	GOF/%	Kappa
2000-2005	1	856697	4942	17335/100	99.40	0.000
	50	856697	247100	347/100	86.90	0.613
	100	856697	494200	173/100	85.30	0.686
	200	856697	988400	87/100	87.00	0.737
	300	856697	1482600	58/100	88.30	0.741
	500	856697	2471000	35/100	90.40	0.733
	1000	856697	4942000	17/100	93.50	0.714
	10000	856697	49420000	2/100	98.30	0.577
2005-2010	1	857661	3978	21560/100	99.50	0.000
	50	857661	198900	431/100	87.60	0.580
	100	857661	397880	216/100	85.60	0.671
	200	857661	795600	108/100	86.70	0.734
	300	857661	1193400	72/100	87.10	0.730
	500	857661	1989000	43/100	89.60	0.741
	1000	857661	3978000	22/100	93.20	0.741
	10000	857661	39780000	2/100	98.70	0.612

变量	B(回归系数)
变量	2000-2005年	2005-2010年
与北京中心的距离	0.911	-2.188
与天津、石家庄中心的距离	-1.989	-2.903
与河北地级市中心的距离	-.328	2.016
与京津冀小城镇的距离	1.435	1.021
与铁路的距离	2.940	2.276
与高速公路的距离	3.451	4.051
与国道的距离	1.520	1.524
与省道的距离	3.981	4.025
是否为禁止建设区	-1.197	-.813
邻域内城镇建设元胞数目/8	-6.953	-7.485

类型	变量	基准情景	高速发展情景	低速发展情景	高速公路指状发展情景	小城镇促进发展情景	交通引导发展情景
宏观约束	城镇建设用地元胞数目	65692	80000	50000	65692	65692	65692
空间约束	与北京中心的距离	-2.188	-2.188	-2.188	-2.188	-2.188	-2.188
	与天津、石家庄中心的距离	-2.903	-2.903	-2.903	-2.903	-2.903	-2.903
	与河北地级市中心的距离	2.016	2.016	2.016	2.016	2.016	2.016
	与京津冀小城镇的距离	1.021	1.021	1.021	1.021	5.021	1.021
	与铁路的距离	2.276	2.276	2.276	2.276	2.276	2.276
	与高速公路的距离	4.051	4.051	4.051	8.051	4.051	6.051
	与国道的距离	1.524	1.524	1.524	1.524	1.524	3.524
	与省道的距离	4.025	4.025	4.025	4.025	4.025	6.025
制度性约束	是否为禁止建设区	-0.813	-0.813	-0.813	-0.813	-0.813	-0.813
邻域约束	邻域内城镇建设元胞数目/8	8.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	8.000
常量		-7.485	-7.485	-7.485	-7.485	-7.485	-7.485

市域	基准情景			高速发展情景		低速发展情景			高速公路指状发展情景			小城镇促进发展情景			交通引导发展情景
市域	元胞/个		元胞/%		元胞/个	元胞/%		元胞/个		元胞/%	元胞/个	元胞/%	元胞/个	元胞/%	元胞/个	元胞/%
北京市	16554	25.2		18960	23.7	13850	27.7		15766	24.0		16489	25.1		15963	24.3
天津市	15372	23.4		18000	22.5	12100	24.2		15306	23.3		15635	23.8		14649	22.3
石家庄市	3416	5.2		4160	5.2	2700	5.4		3482	5.3		3547	5.4		4007	6.1
邯郸市	4533	6.9		5360	6.7	3050	6.1		3613	5.5		4073	6.2		4336	6.6
邢台市	3022	4.6		3680	4.6	2500	5.0		2956	4.5		2693	4.1		2890	4.4
衡水市	3613	5.5		4160	5.2	2800	5.6		3153	4.8		3416	5.2		3088	4.7
保定市	3679	5.6		4560	5.7	2800	5.6		3942	6.0		3744	5.7		3744	5.7
廊坊市	2234	3.4		2880	3.6	1450	2.9		2036	3.1		2234	3.4		2234	3.4
秦皇岛市	2234	3.4		2880	3.6	1450	2.9		2628	4.0		2365	3.6		2234	3.4
沧州市	3547	5.4		4880	6.1	2400	4.8		4007	6.1		3547	5.4		3876	5.9
唐山市	3088	4.7		4080	5.1	2400	4.8		3547	5.4		3219	4.9		3219	4.9
张家口市	3810	5.8		5200	6.5	2100	4.2		4270	6.5		4007	6.1		4533	6.9
承德市	591	0.9		1280	1.6	450	0.9		985	1.5		657	1.0		920	1.4
京津冀	65692	100		80000	100	50000	100		65692	100		65692	100		65692	100