地理科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 217-.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.02.010

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京津冀地区城镇空间扩张模拟与分析

刘翠玲1(), 龙瀛2()   

  1. 1. 中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部,北京 100835
    2. 北京市城市规划设计研究院,北京 100045
  • 出版日期:2015-03-23 发布日期:2015-03-23
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘翠玲(1986-),女,河北邯郸人,助理工程师,主要研究方向为城市扩张模拟,E-mail: liu_cuiling@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(51408039)

Urban expansion simulation and analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Cuiling LIU1(), Ying LONG2()   

  1. 1. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100835, China
    2. Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China
  • Online:2015-03-23 Published:2015-03-23

摘要:

准确把握城镇扩张过程中空间形态的变化规律对城镇规划水平的提高具有重要的现实意义。当前,京津冀的协同发展已上升为国家战略,为了对京津冀远景的城镇增长进行预测,本文将北京城市空间发展分析模型(BUDEM)扩展到京津冀(JJJ)区域,构建了京津冀城镇空间发展分析模型(BUDEM-JJJ)。该模型以城市增长理论和约束性元胞自动机(Constrained Cellular Automata, Constrained CA)模型为基础,以京津冀区域为研究对象,以Logistic回归和单一参数循环方法(Monoloop)为模型参数识别方法,利用2000-2005年和2005-2010年两个历史阶段的城镇建设用地数据对模型进行了参数识别,并进行了模型验证。在此基础上,对京津冀区域2049年的城镇形态进行了多种情景模拟,分析了不同发展情景(Scenario)下京津冀地区城镇空间发展格局的变化,可为当前京津冀城镇发展方向的调整和下一轮的城镇规划提供参考。

关键词: 元胞自动机, BUDEM-JJJ, 城镇扩张, 模拟, 京津冀

Abstract:

In order to predict future urban layout in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), we developed a BUDEM-JJJ model on the basis of the Beijing urban development model (BUDEM). BUDEM, based on prevalent urban growth theory and constrained cellular automatic, was developed in 2008 for analyzing and simulating urban growth for the Beijing Metropolitan Area(BMA). It is proved that the model is capable of analyzing historical urban growth mechanisms and predicting future urban growth for metropolitan areas in China. In this research, we extended the study of BUDEM from the BMA to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region (JJJ), via replacing the datasets of the model and making necessary adjustments to the parameters. In BUDEM-JJJ, the parameters include minimum distance to the center of Beijing (f_ctr_bj), minimum distance to the centers of Tianjin and Shijiazhuang (f_ctr_tjsjz), minimum distance to the centers of prefecture-level cities of Hebei province (f_ctr_other), minimum distance to the centers of other urban areas (f_ctr_cty), minimum distance to railways (f_rail), minimum distance to highways (f_r_hig), minimum distance to national roads (f_r_nat), minimum distance to provincial roads (f_r_pro), location in or outside areas prohibited for construction (constrain), and neighborhood development intensity (neighbor). The model BUDEM-JJJ was used to identify urban growth mechanisms in two historical phases from 2000 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2010, to simulate urban growth scenarios for 2049. Six urban growth scenarios were put forward, including the base (business as usual) scenario, high-speed growth scenario, low-speed growth scenario, highway finger-shaped growth scenario, small cities and towns promoting growth scenario, and transportation-led growth scenario. BUDEM-JJJ considers the heterogeneity of driving force and model parameters, and fulfills accurate simulation in large-scale. Using the model urban layout can be predicted for each scenario. From the number of increased cellular and the occupation of farmland, grassland, forestland, and unused land, we found that the different scenarios have different effects on the environment. BUDEM-JJJ is the first applicable urban growth model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. These scenarios can be applied in several planning projects and also can be used to evaluate the present urban growth rate.

Key words: cellular automata, BUDEM-JJJ, urban expansion, simulation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region