近50年来气候变化背景下中国大豆生产潜力时空演变特征

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.00.013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大豆是中国最重要的粮食兼油料作物之一,随着人口的增长和人们生活水平的提高,中国对大豆产品的消费需求不断增加。全球气候变化给大豆生产带来了一定影响,其中有负面的,也有正面的。本文以2010年中国耕地空间分布遥感监测数据为基础,在1961-2010年的长时间序列气象数据、土壤数据等数据基础上,采用GAEZ模型,综合考虑光、温、水、CO₂浓度、病虫害、农业气候限制、土壤、地形等因素,估算了中国大豆生产潜力,进而分析了近50年来气候变化导致的中国大豆生产潜力的时空格局特征。研究表明：①中国大豆生产潜力呈现由南向北、由西向东增加的趋势。东北平原区、长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区是大豆高产区。②近50年来,中国大豆适宜种植面积持续增加,而大豆平均生产潜力却持续下降,大豆生产潜力总量先降后增。③中国大豆生产潜力的变化区域差异明显。东北平原区大豆生产潜力总量居全国第一,长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区分别居第二、三位。本文揭示了近50年来气候变化背景下中国大豆生产潜力的时空格局演变特征,对合理安排大豆种植布局,高效利用气候和土地资源,实现大豆稳产高产具有指导意义。

关键词: 气候变化, 大豆, 生产潜力, 时空变化特征, GAEZ模型, 中国

Abstract:

Soybean is one of the most important grain and oil crops in China. With the growth of population and the improvement of people's living standard, demands for soybean products have been increasing. At the same time global climate change has brought both beneficial and detrimental effects to soybean production, depending on the geographic areas. Using the 2010 remote sensing monitoring data of cultivated land distribution and long time series meteorological and soil data, soybean production potential in China was calculated using the AEZ model for the period from 1961 to 2010. Solar radiation, temperature, water, CO₂ concentration, plant diseases and insect pests, agricultural climate restrictions, soil, terrain, and other factors were taken into consideration in the model. This study simulated long-term change of soybean production potential in China from 1961 to 2010 and analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of this change under the background of climate change. The results are that: (1) Significant difference was found in the spatial distribution of soybean production potential in China over the study period—there was an increasing trend from south to north and west to east. The high potential zones were Northeast China Plain, Middle-Lower Yangtze River Plain, and Huang-Huai-Hai River Plain. (2)In the recent 50 years, China's soybean suitable planting areas increased continuously, while the mean soybean production potential steadily declined. The total potential yield of soybeans nationwide decreased at the beginning and then increased—in the 1970s the total potential yield of soybeans reduced by 2.181 million tons compared to that in the 1960s. It then showed a trend of continuous growth from the 1970s to 2000s, and the amount gradually became larger. From the 1970s to 2000s the total potential yield of soybeans increased by 5.3 million tons. (3) In different regions of China soybean production potential experienced different changes. From the 1960s to the 1970s the total potential yield of soybeans in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Plain ranked first in China. In the 1980s, the total potential yield of soybeans in Northeast China Plain had a spectacular increase and exceeded the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Plain and became number one in the country. The Huang-Huai-Hai River Plain ranked third. Since the 1970s, the total potential yield of soybeans continuously declined to 65.87 million tons in the 2000s and it was 2.85 million tons lower than in the 1960s. This study reveals the spatial-temporal characteristics of soybean production potential change over the past 50 years in China, which has important scientific significance for the planning of soybean planting, efficient utilization of climate resources, and achieving high and stable yield of soybeans.

Key words: climate change, soybean, production potential, spatial-temporal characteristics, GAEZ model, China

中图分类号:

S565.1

张晓峰, 王宏志, 刘洛, 徐新良. 近50年来气候变化背景下中国大豆生产潜力时空演变特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(10): 1414-1423.

Xiaofeng ZHANG, Hongzhi WANG, Luo LIU, Xinliang XU. Spatial-temporal characteristics of soybean production potential change under the background of climate change over the past 50 years in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(10): 1414-1423.

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