地理科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 1703-1711.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2013.11.013

• 气候与环境变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1991-2011 年山东省工业经济增长的大气污染效应及其时空格局——以SO2和粉尘为例

程钰, 徐成龙, 刘雷, 任建兰   

  1. 山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院, 济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-01 修回日期:2013-10-01 出版日期:2013-11-25 发布日期:2013-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 任建兰(1954- ),女,山东烟台人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域可持续发展研究。E-mail: renjianlan@sina.com E-mail:renjianlan@sina.com
  • 作者简介:程钰(1984- ),男,山东潍坊人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为区域可持续发展。E-mail: chengyuwyp@sina.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271553);山东省科技攻关计划项目(2010GZX20804)。

Effect of industrial growth on atmospheric pollution and its spatio-temporal pattern in Shandong Province during 1991-2011: Taking SO2 and dust emissions as example

CHENG Yu, XU Chenglong, LIU Lei, REN Jianlan   

  1. College of Population Resource and Environment Sciences, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250014, China
  • Received:2013-07-01 Revised:2013-10-01 Online:2013-11-25 Published:2013-11-25

摘要: 环境污染是影响区域可持续发展的重要因素,经济增长与大气环境污染的关系及其时空演变格局是地理学等相关学科的研究热点。本文以山东省为例,选取SO2、粉尘两项指标反映大气污染状况,采取LMDI分解模型、脱钩模型以及地理空间分析等研究方法,探讨山东省工业经济增长的大气环境污染效应及其时空格局,得出以下结论:① SO2排放总量呈现上升—下降—回升—下降的趋势,拐点分别在1997、2002 和2005 年;粉尘总体呈现先上升后下降的趋势,拐点在1997 年;大气污染与工业经济基本实现了从相对脱钩向绝对脱钩的转变,总体趋势有所改善。② 从污染物排放总量以及分年度数据来看,规模总量效应是造成SO2、粉尘等大气污染物排放量增加的主要原因;技术效率效应是造成污染物排放总量减少的主要原因;结构减排效应对于污染物减排起到一定作用,但效果并不明显。③ 就空间格局来说,淄博、莱芜、枣庄等地区地均SO2排放量较高,菏泽、临沂等鲁西、鲁南地区相对较低;济南、淄博、莱芜、烟台和枣庄等鲁中、鲁东以及鲁南地区地均粉尘排放量较大。针对上述研究结果,提出制定差别化区域政策、优化工业布局、创新环境管理措施、实施大气环境信息公开等相关对策。

关键词: SO2, 大气污染, 粉尘, 工业增长, 山东省, 时空格局

Abstract: Economic growth is considered to be leading causes of ecological crisis. With rapid industrialization and urbanization, environmental problems inevitably have become the important factors that affect regional sustainable development. Recently, the spatio-temporal pattern of environmental pollution caused by industrial development and economic growth became a hot topic in geography. In this paper, we took Shandong Province as an example, selected SO2 and dust as two indicators of atmospheric pollution, and used LMDI model, decomposition model and geographic (spatial) analysis to investigate the spatio-temporal pattern of industrial growth and atmospheric pollution in Shandong Province from 1991 to 2011, and drew conclusions as follows. (1) SO2 emission showed a trend of a downward-upward cycle, followed by a second downward-upward cycle, with the inflection points in 1997, 2002, and 2005, respectively, and, generally speaking, the dust increased first and then decreased, with the inflection point in 1997. The two atmospheric pollutants basically changed from relatively decoupled to absolutely decoupled, indicating an overall improvement of the atmospheric environment. (2) The results of the overall total amount and annual amounts of pollutants indicate that the overall scale of industrial and economic activities is the main cause of atmospheric pollution with SO2 and dust, the effect of technical efficiency is the main reason for the reduction of total pollutants, and the structure effect played certain, but limited, roles in the reduction of pollutants. So adjustment of industrial structures, especially reducing the pollution-intensive industries, is the main approach to pollution control. (3) Overall pattern of SO2 and dust pollution suggested that the situation of pollution control was getting better. SO2 emissions per unit area are high mainly in Laiwu, Zibo, Zaozhuang and other areas, and relatively low in Heze, Linyi and other western and southern areas. Dust emissions per unit area are mainly high in Ji'nan, Zibo, Laiwu, Yantai and Zaozhuang of the middle, southern, and western areas. Based on the above research results, we propose that different regional policies need to be implemented, industrial layout optimized, environmental management measures innovated, environmental information disclosure, in addition to other relevant countermeasures. In order to solve the current atmospheric\ environmental problems, this research is of practical significance for the establishment of atmospheric environmental governance and the mechanism of sustainable regional development in Shandong Province, and promotion of the coordination between regional economic growth and environmental protection.

Key words: atmospheric pollution, dust, industrial growth, Shandong Province, SO2, spatio-temporal pattern