关键词: 安徽省, 标准差椭圆, 经济重心, 县域经济, 演化

Abstract: By selecting per capita GDP of every county in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2010, comprehensively using the methods of G index, economic gravity centre, standard deviational ellipses and G(1, 1) prediction model, this article analyzes and forecasts the evolution of county economy, and, combined with the rank-size principle, analyzes the mechanism of spatial differences. Generally speaking, the county economy of Anhui Province presents a weak clustering distribution trend and shows a spatial pattern of "low in the north and south but high in the middle" and "low in the west but high in the east". The scope of economic gravity centre is 117.569°~ 117.598°E, 31.672°~31.760°N, and has the trend moving to the southeast. The change of standard deviational ellipses is very small; basically the core is capital economic circle, covering the most areas of Wanjiang City Belt. The spatial distribution of county economy presents a "northwest-southeast" pattern, and has the trend changing to "north-south" pattern. The county economy meets the rank-size principle and performs a low-level decentralized equilibrium pattern. Regional resources endowments and location, the development of central cities, and policies are the main reasons that cause the spatial differences.

Key words: Anhui Province, county economy, economic gravity centre, evolution, standard deviational ellipse