地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 306-312.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.03.007

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960-2009 年新疆渭干河流域蒸发皿蒸发量变化特征

卢磊1,2, 乔木1, 周生斌1, 唐金3, 闫俊杰1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，乌鲁木齐830011;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院，北京100049;
    3. 新疆农业大学，乌鲁木齐830052
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-01 修回日期:2011-01-01 出版日期:2011-03-25 发布日期:2011-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 乔木，男，研究员，主要从事环境遥感和干旱区生态恢复研究。
  • 作者简介:卢磊(1984-)，男，硕士研究生，研究方向为环境遥感与恢复生态。E-mail: lulei2010@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    新疆维吾尔自治区“十一五”重大专项(200733144-1)。

Characteristics of Pan Evaporation Changes During 1960-2009 in Weigan River Basin, Xinjiang

LU Lei1,2, QIAO Mu1, ZHOU Shengbin1, TANG Jin3, YAN Junjie1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
  • Received:2010-10-01 Revised:2011-01-01 Online:2011-03-25 Published:2011-03-25

PDF (PC)

赞

被引次数

41 | 2

摘要： 根据新疆气象局地面观测资料，整理出渭干河流域1960-2009 年蒸发皿蒸发量资料，运用线性趋势估计、距平与累积距平、滑动t 检验、小波分析、灰色预测等方法，对蒸发皿蒸发量的变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征及未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明：①50 年来，渭干河流域蒸发皿蒸发量有升有降，总体上呈波动式减少的趋势，其变化倾向率为-19.72 mm/10a，通过了0.05 的显著性检验。累积距平曲线的变化趋势显示，年蒸发皿蒸发量以1987 年和2004 年为转折点，前期偏多，中期偏少，后期偏多。②年蒸发皿蒸发量在1987 年发生了由多到少的突变，在2004 年发生了由少到多的突变，突变类型比较复杂，是均值突变和转折突变两种突变类型的组合。③蒸发皿蒸发量在50a 的时间序列中存在8a、17a 和20a 的周期。在8a 的时间尺度上，年蒸发皿蒸发量序列经历了7 个偏多期和6 个偏少期；在17a 的时间尺度上，经历了2 个偏多期和2 个偏少期；在20a 的时间尺度上，经历了1 个偏少期和2 个偏多期。④利用建立的灰色预测GM(1，1)模型对渭干河流域蒸发皿蒸发量进行了预测，发现模型的可靠性高，预测结果准确，年蒸发皿蒸发量在未来3年将出现增加的趋势。

关键词: 变化趋势, 灰色预测, 渭干河流域, 小波分析, 蒸发皿蒸发量

Abstract: Based on the ground observations by the Xinjiang Bureau of Meteorology, the trend，periods and abrupt change of pan evaporation were analyzed in Weigan River Basin with methods of linear analysis, annual anomalies, abrupt t test, wavelet analysis and grey forecasting. The results indicated that as a whole, the annual pan evaporation trend was decreasing in the Weigan River Basin during the given 50 years. The average change was -19.72 mm/10a, which passed the significance test at 0.05 level. The results also showed the annual pan evaporation changes during 1987-2004, which had a high period before 1987, a low period 1987-2003 and a high period after 2004. The annual pan evaporation had presented abrupt changes during 1987-2004. The change type was complex, which included mean value changes and transition changes. There were obvious periods of 8, 17 and 20 years for the annual pan evaporation series during the given 50 years in the Weigan River Basin. At the scale of 8 years, there were 7 high value periods and 6 low value periods. At the scale of 17 years, there were 2 high value periods and 2 low value periods. At the scale of 20 years, there were 2 high value periods and 1 low value periods. The predicted amount of pan evaporation from the established grey dynamic model indicates that the dependability of the established grey dynamic model is very high and the predicted result has nicety. The annual pan evaporation will be increasing in the next three years.

Key words: change trend, grey forecasting, pan evaporation, wavelet analysis, Weigan River Basin