地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 290-298.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.03.005

• 气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

1960-2005年澜沧江流域极端降水变化特征

李斌1,2, 李丽娟1, 李海滨3, 梁丽乔1, 李九一1,2, 柳玉梅1,2, 曾宏伟1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京100101;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院，北京100049;
    3. 普林斯顿大学，新泽西州，08540
  • 收稿日期:2010-04-01 修回日期:2010-07-01 出版日期:2011-03-25 发布日期:2011-03-25
  • 通讯作者: 李丽娟(1961-)，女，吉林人，研究员，主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:lilj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李斌(1982-)，男，博士生，主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail: lib.07b@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    科技部科技基础性工作专项(2008FY110300-01)；欧盟第六框架项目(SWITCH-018530).

Changes in Precipitation Extremes in Lancang River Basin, 1960-2005

LI Bin1,2, LI Lijuan1, LI Haibin3, LIANG Liqiao1, LI Jiuyi1,2, LIU Yumei1,2, ZENG Hongwei1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Princeton University, USA
  • Received:2010-04-01 Revised:2010-07-01 Online:2011-03-25 Published:2011-03-25

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摘要： 极端降水事件是气候变化的一个重要方面。澜沧江流域纵贯13 个纬度，最大相对高差近5000 m，跨6 种气候带，是全球少见的南北向大江，它在气候、水文、地理、生态学等多方面都具有重要的科学研究价值。自1960 年以来，流域经历了显著的气温上升。探讨在气候变暖背景下这一复杂流域的极端降水变化具有重要意义。本文利用澜沧江流域及其周边35 个气象站1961-2005 年的日降水资料，分析了小于5 mm、5～10 mm、10～50 mm以及大于50 mm 4 个不同量级降水的降水量、降水日数和日平均降水强度的变化趋势。并计算了每种量级降水占总降水量的百分比及降水频率。结果表明，各量级各项指标均存在明显的区域变化特征，流域总体上极端降水频率的增加态势明显。对典型地区站点分析表明，极端降水的增加可能与气候系统随机性变强有关。

关键词: 降水, 澜沧江流域, 强度, 趋势

Abstract: Extreme precipitation is an important aspect of climate change. According to the estimation using the latest climate models, the extreme precipitation events will become frequent in a warming world. Significant increases of the very heavy precipitation and decreases of light and moderate precipitations have indeed been observed over most land areas of the globe in the last few decades. The Lancang River, with a relative altitude difference of about 5000 m, flows through 13 latitudes and 6 climatic zones. It is rarely seen in the world and has important scientific values for climatology, hydrology, geography and ecology. Since 1960, the basin has experienced a significant increase in temperature like most parts of the world. Studying the changes of extreme precipitation events in the basin in the context of global warming is of great importance.
Based on a daily precipitation dataset of 35 meteorological observation stations distributed in and around the Lancang River basin, trends of precipitation amounts, precipitation days and daily precipitation intensity during a 45-year period (1961-2005) of 4 different classes ranging from less than 5, 5-10, 10-50 and larger than 50 mm were analyzed, and the precipitation frequency and the proportion of precipitation amount of each precipitation class were calculated. The result showed that all the indexes varied spatially, and for the basin as a whole, the frequency of the extreme events increased obviously. Analysis of a typical station indicated that the increase of extreme precipitation and the randomness of the climatic system might be closely related with each other.

Key words: intensity, precipitation, trend