地理科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 1047-1055.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.08.012

• 旅游与文化地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

1982年以来中国旅游业对第三产业的关联带动性分析

苏建军1,2, 孙根年2, 王丽芳1   

  1. 1. 运城学院经济管理系,运城 044000;
    2. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安 710062
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-01 修回日期:2011-02-01 出版日期:2011-08-25 发布日期:2011-08-25
  • 通讯作者: 孙根年(1961-),男,西安人,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为旅游经济运行与危机管理。E-mail: gnsun@snnu.edu.cn E-mail:gnsun@snnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:苏建军(1975-),男,陕西扶风人,硕士,副教授,研究方向为旅游经济发展。E-mail: sujj752005@126.com

Driving and Pulling Simulation of Tourism on the Tertiary Industry in China since 1982

SU Jianjun1,2, SUN Gennian2, WANG Lifang1   

  1. 1. Department of Economic & Management Yun Cheng University, Yun Cheng 044000, China;
    2. College of Tourism & Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710062, China
  • Received:2010-10-01 Revised:2011-02-01 Online:2011-08-25 Published:2011-08-25

摘要: 中国旅游业发展对第三产业增长具有强大的辐射作用和波及效应。本文建立了一个新的理论模型和分析框架,采用1982-2008 年时间序列数据,利用非平稳时间序列分析方法、Granger 因果关系检验法和弹性系数分析法,系统分析了旅游业发展对第三产业增长及各部门的关联带动性。研究发现:①从时间序列数据分析看,旅游业发展与第三产业增长之间存在着长期均衡稳定的关系;入境旅游与第三产业之间存在单向格兰杰因果关系;国内旅游与第三产业存在双向格兰杰因果关系,即旅游业发展对第三产业增长有正向促进作用,其中,入境旅游对第三产业增长的带动性要高于国内旅游。国内旅游与入境旅游具有某种相互推动作用。②从弹性分析看,入境旅游对第三产业及各部门的弹性系数分别为1.090079、1.024949、1.047349、1.110070、1.044185、1.139565 和1.177425;国内旅游对第三产及各部门的弹性系数分别为0.789943、0.744285、0.759301、0.806053、0.755764、0.826966 和0.855732,入境旅游对第三产业及各部门增长的贡献度高于国内旅游的,这可能与长期重视入境旅游发展的政策有关。

关键词: Granger因果检验, 弹性系数, 第三产业, 关联性, 旅游业, 中国

Abstract: Tourism has a great effect on the growth of the tertiary industry. With a theoretical model and a framework for analysis, the paper uses non-stationary time series, Granger causality and elasticity coefficient methods and time series data from 1982 to 2008, and analyzes the linkage relationship between tourism development and the growth of tertiary industry. The results can be obtained as follows. (1) Time-series data shows that there is a long term linkage relationship between them. In addition, a single-direction Granger causality relation is found between inbound tourist and tertiary industry. Domestic tourism and tertiary industry also have Granger causality relations. Tourism development promotes the growth of tertiary industry, and inbound tourism development has greater effect on the tertiary industry than the domestic tourism. Inbound tourism and domestic tourism have certain impetus to each other. (2) The elasticity coefficients of inbound tourism to tertiary industry and the sectors of tertiary industry are 1.090079, 1.024949, 1.047349, 1.110070, 1.044185, 1.139565 and 1.177425 respectively, and the elasticity coefficients of domestic tourism to tertiary industry and the sectors of tertiary industry are 0.789943, 0.744285, 0.759301, 0.806053, 0.755764, 0.826966 and 0.855732 respectively. Inbound tourism development contributes to tertiary industry more than domestic tourism.

Key words: China, elasticity coefficient, Granger causality tests, linkage relationship, tertiary industry, tourism