地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (4): 629-635.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.04.021

• 气候变化与降水 • 上一篇    

湖南省区域干旱模糊评价

张剑明1,2|黎祖贤3|章新平2|张健2|邵泽峰4   

  1. 1. 株洲市气象局|株洲 412003； 2. 湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院|长沙 410081；
    3. 湖南省气象局|长沙 410007；4. 湖南省高速公路管理局|长沙 410005
  • 出版日期:2009-07-25 发布日期:2009-07-25
  • 作者简介:张剑明(1982-)|男|湖南长沙人|硕士研究生|主要从事环境演变与自然灾害研究。E-mail: zhaolanxiai@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40871094；40871043)；湖南省重点学科建设项目

A Fuzzy Evaluation of the Regional Drought in Hunan Province

ZHANG Jianming1,2, LI Zuxian3, ZHANG Xinping2, ZHANG Jian2, SHAO Zefeng4   

  1. 1. Meteorological Bureau of Zhuzhou, Zhuzhou 412003, Hunan, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China|
    3. Hunan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Changsha 410007, China;
    4. Hunan Provincial Expressway Management Bureau, Changsha 410005, China
  • Online:2009-07-25 Published:2009-07-25

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被引次数

31 | 3

摘要：

本文采用湖南省80个地面气象站点1970-2005年的月降水、蒸发资料，河道来水量资料和农作物受旱面积资料，运用模糊综合评价、M-K突变及小波分析等方法分析了湖南省36年来区域干旱的时间变化特征。选用降水距平百分率、蒸发降水比、河道来水量和农业受旱面积组成区域干旱评级指标体系，将干旱分为由湿润到特大干旱9个等级，建立模糊综合评价模型，确定旱涝的等级。在1970-2005年期间，特大干旱年共发生了5年，严重干旱年发生了2年，中等干旱年发生了6年，轻度干旱发生了3年。过去36年湖南省综合干旱指标呈微弱增加趋势，其中1970年代和1990年代处于湿润时期，1980年代处于干旱时期，进入21世纪后有变干的趋势。综合指标于1990年代初有一个由干向湿的转变过程，且存在3年、6年和16年三个时间特征尺度。2005年之后小波系数仍将是负值，表明未来若干年湖南将仍处于干旱期，之后可能进入一个湿润期。

关键词: 湖南省；干旱；模糊评价；变化趋势

Abstract:

China's water issues are mainly manifested in threats of floods and drought disasters, shortage of water resources and deterioration of the eco-environment of the 21st century. Among the three problems, the shortage of water resources has become the important restrict factor for the sustainable development of society and economy. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the degree of the drought of a district and work out the drought preparedness plans. Using data of annual precipitation and evaporation, river runoff and drought disaster affected cropping areas, the temporal distribution of regional drought in Hunan Province during 1960-2005 is analyzed by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, M-K test, wavelet analysis, abrupt change analysis, cluster analysis, EOF and REOF. In addition, the responses between regional drought-flood in Hunan Province and global change are studied.
(1)Using an appropriate evaluation system, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established, and the level of regional drought-flood was identified.
(2)The results showed that the composite indicator in Hunan Province has a weak increasing trend in the past 36 years, of which the 1970s and 1990s were in flood periods, the 1980s were in drought period. There was a decreasing trend upon entering the 21st century, and there was an abrupt change from dry to wet in the early 1990s. Generally, the composite indicator presented variations of three periods. In the late 2000s, Hunan Province will be in a period of drought, after that it will be in a period of flood.

Key words: changing trend, fuzzy evaluation, Hunan Province;drought