地理科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (3): 345-352.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.03.004

• 产业发展与区域经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

新疆区域基础设施与经济耦合的关联分析

杨莉1,2|杨德刚1|张豫芳1,2|乔旭宁1,2|唐宏1,2|王国刚1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所|乌鲁木齐 830011; 2. 中国科学院研究生院|北京 100049
  • 出版日期:2009-05-25 发布日期:2010-08-08
  • 通讯作者: 杨德刚,研究员 E-mail:dgyang@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:杨莉(1983-)|女|四川广安人|硕士生|主要从事区域发展与区域规划研究。E-mail:yangli---lili@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院西部计划“塔里木河流域社会经济跨越式发展与生态安全”(KZCX2-XB2-03-03)

Grey Associative Analysis of Infrastructure System and Economic Development Coupling in Xinjiang

YANG Li1,2, YANG Degang1, ZHANG Yufang1,2, QIAO Xuning1,2, TANG Hong1,2, WANG Guogang1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China|
    2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Online:2009-05-25 Published:2010-08-08

摘要:

本文以新疆为例,运用灰色关联分析法构建出区域基础设施与经济交互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,定性与定量相结合揭示出新疆基础设施与经济发展耦合的主要影响因素及耦合机制,并分别从时空角度分析耦合度的时序演变规律和空间分布特点。研究结果表明:(1)基础设施与经济发展各要素之间的耦合是复杂的,总体上表现在基础设施对经济发展的支撑、反馈作用和经济发展对基础设施的促进作用两个方面。通过关联度计算遴选出作用于经济的10项基础设施指标和影响基础设施的6项经济指标,它们较为全面地反映了系统交互耦合的机制;(2)交通运输、邮电通信与人均GDP的关联性最强,进一步建立作用关系模型,得出交通运输、邮电通信的基本建设投入对人均GDP的弹性为0.264。(3)基础设施和经济发展耦合度的时序变动表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,且空间各异,根据耦合度大小并结合区域经济发展与基础设施建设的实际情况,将新疆15个地州市划分为经济发展超前型、趋近协调型、同步协调型和低水平耦合型等4种类型,总体而言以同步协调型为主。

关键词: 基础设施;经济;灰色关联分析;关联度;耦合度;新疆

Abstract:

Taking Xinjiang as a case analysis, based on the panel and serial statistical data, the main factors of infrastructure system and economic development coupling, temporal-spatial distribution of the coupling degrees have been researched. The results show: (1) Through grey associative degree analysis, it can be seen that the transport infrastructure and post﹠telecommunication services are the main momentums for infrastructure system to affect economic development. Furthermore, the paper selects ten items of infrastructure system and six items of economic development to reveal the coupling mechanism of infrastructure system and economic development. (2) The infrastructure system is very important for economic growth. Deducting an effects-relationship model and the elasticity of transport infrastructure and post﹠telecommunication services to economic growth is 0.264. (3) There exist significant phases and undulatory characteristics for the temporal evolvement of infrastructure system and economic development coupling, and its spatial distribution is different. According to the coupling degree distributions and the level of infrastructure system and regional economic development, the 15 prefectures, autonomous prefectures and cities in Xinjiang can be divided into four types, i.e., the economic development surpassing infrastructure, tending to be harmony, harmony and low-level coupling. The harmony type is dominant, reaching 50%.

Key words: associative degree; coupling degree, grey associative analysis, infrastructure;economic development, Xinjiang