地理科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 877-885.doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2009.06.007

• 生态与环境变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

自然灾害的影响及间接经济损失评估方法

吴吉东1,2|李 |宁1,3|胡爱军1,2|崔维佳1,2|张 |鹏1,2|温玉婷1,2   

  1. 1. 民政部/教育部 减灾与应急管理研究院|北京 100875; |2. 北京师范大学 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室|
    北京 100875; |3. 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学)|北京 100875
  • 出版日期:2009-11-25 发布日期:2009-11-25
  • 通讯作者: 李宁(1958-),女,江苏镇江人,教授,主要从事自然灾害风险研究。 E-mail:ningli@ires.cn
  • 作者简介:吴吉东(1981-)|男|河南西峡人|博士生|主要从事自然灾害损失评估研究。E-mail: wjdong@ires.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40771008);国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC29B05, 2008BAK50B08)

Economic Impact of Natural Disaster and Indirect Economic Loss Estimation Methods

WU Jidong1,2, LI Ning1,3, HU Aijun1,2, CUI Weijia1,2, ZHANG Peng1,2|WEN Yuting1,2   

  1. 1. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs &|Ministry of Education,
    Beijing 100875, China; |2. Key Laboratory of |Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,
    Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; |
    3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2009-11-25 Published:2009-11-25

摘要:

灾害的损失受灾前经济发展水平、灾种差异、灾后恢复重建策略、灾害管理水平和灾害保险体系完善程度等复杂因素的影响,加上基础数据精度、获取难度和校验的不确定性,目前还没有有效的灾害间接经济损失评估方法。而已有间接经济损失评估方法存在不足:首先,评估对灾害间接经济损失的构成、时空维界定模糊;其次,评估模型假设太多往往偏离灾后实际经济状况;最后,模型对灾害扰动的动态影响机制考虑不足,往往忽视灾后经济系统的弹性和部门生产容量的动态变化特征。因此,在进行灾害损失评估时应注意灾害对经济影响的动态机理,结合不同灾害类型对经济影响的特点和当地的经济发展状况,合理设置相关参数,使模型更切合实际,从而更合理有效的评估灾害造成的间接损失。

关键词: 自然灾害;经济影响;间接经济损失;直接经济损失;评估方法

Abstract:

Disaster loss is related to the pre-disaster economic development level, disaster types, post-disaster recovery strategies, disaster management ability and disaster insurance system perfection, combined with basic data accuracy, access difficulty and uncertainty of calibration, there is no effective indirect economic loss assessment methods until now. The present indirect loss estimation methods have some deficiencies: First, the definition of indirect economic losses composition, the spatial and temporal dimension of disasters were vague; secondly, the model assumptions are too much deviation from the actual economic situation in post-disaster; and finally, the model tended to ignore the dynamic changes characteristics of the post-disaster economic system flexibility and production capacity of the industrial sectors. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the dynamic mechanism of disasters impact on the economic, and set the relevant parameters reasonable so that the model is more realistic to reflect the real disaster impact, and estimate the indirect economic losses caused by disasters well for decision-making.

Key words: direct economic lossestimation methods, economic impact, indirect economic loss, natural disaster