地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (7): 1009-1020.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.07.006
马明清1,2(), 袁武3, 葛全胜1, 袁文1,*(
), 杨林生1, 李汉青4, 李萌1,2
收稿日期:
2019-01-18
修回日期:
2019-05-15
出版日期:
2019-07-28
发布日期:
2019-07-28
通讯作者:
袁文
作者简介:
马明清(1994— ),男,新疆伊犁人,硕士生,主要从事时空数据挖掘研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Mingqing MA1,2(), Wu YUAN3, Quansheng GE1, Wen YUAN1,*(
), Linsheng YANG1, Hanqing LI4, Meng LI1,2
Received:
2019-01-18
Revised:
2019-05-15
Online:
2019-07-28
Published:
2019-07-28
Contact:
Wen YUAN
Supported by:
摘要:
“一带一路”倡议已成为中国的基本国际政策,及时掌握沿线国家的社会发展态势,对确保该倡议的稳步推进与顺利实施至关重要。为此,论文将GDELT数据库作为数据来源,获取了“一带一路”沿线25个国家近5 a的英文新闻全文数据,引入主题模型,结合无监督方法(LDA)与监督方法(Labeled LDA)挖掘新闻数据中蕴含的主题,构建社会稳定度模型,分析各国社会发展态势。研究发现:① 沿线国家社会发展态势不均衡,可划分为4类,即稳定型,如阿曼、越南等;较稳定型,如乌兹别克斯坦、伊朗等;较高风险型,如科威特、约旦、巴基斯坦、缅甸;高风险型,如叙利亚、阿富汗等。② 通过新闻主题时空挖掘,可有效发现热点区域,例如论文发现安集延对中亚地区社会发展与稳定具有重要影响。③ 利用监督主题模型,能够发现乌兹别克斯坦经济产业结构,识别出重大社会事件,发现其社会安全风险及变化趋势。采用论文方法可有效挖掘新闻事件时空变化规律,发现各国潜在风险,支撑对沿线国家社会发展态势的实时动态监控,为“一带一路”倡议的实施提供辅助决策支持,具有重要的应用价值。
马明清, 袁武, 葛全胜, 袁文, 杨林生, 李汉青, 李萌. “一带一路”若干区域社会发展态势大数据分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 1009-1020.
Mingqing MA, Wu YUAN, Quansheng GE, Wen YUAN, Linsheng YANG, Hanqing LI, Meng LI. Big data analysis of social development situation in regions along the Belt and Road[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2019, 38(7): 1009-1020.
表1
GDELT事件类型"
事件类型 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
make public statement | appeal | express intent to cooperate | consult | engage in diplomatic cooperation |
engage in material cooperation | provide aid | yield | investigate | demand |
disapprove | reject | threaten | protest | exhibit force posture |
reduce relations | coerce | assault | fight | use unconventional mass violence |
表2
每个主题对应的频率最大的10个主题词"
事件 | 主题词 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
经济活动 | market | company | budget | government | trade | police | economy | security | cash | growth |
政治外交 | government | election | policy | diplomat | force | national | senate | business | presidential | cooperation |
能源活动 | oil | company | economy | gas | policy | energy | supply | pipeline | attack | export |
宗教活动 | religious | religion | Muslim | community | Islamic | freedom | military | force | women | security |
海军活动 | navy | military | force | ship | cooperation | national | security | government | operation | order |
军事活动 | military | army | security | weapon | policy | activity | power | business | defense | government |
军事冲突 | attack | military | force | politics | killed | war | troop | defense | government | weapon |
种族冲突 | army | ethnic | Muslim | police | Buddhist | death | violence | work | refugee | people |
恐怖袭击 | terrorism | terrorist | Muslim | economic | attack | force | killed | civilian | military | bomb |
核制裁 | nuclear | energy | sanction | government | power | oil | force | security | economy | military |
治安问题 | police | court | victim | crime | security | law | book | prison | criminal | politics |
教育活动 | education | school | student | government | stage | university | focus | technology | development | book |
难民活动 | refugee | police | violence | peace | village | dead | civilian | issue | government | crisis |
医疗健康 | health | ministry | medical | program | disease | hospital | trial | aid | vaccine | doctor |
航空活动 | flight | oil | airplane | transport | tourism | airport | business | government | police | enable |
旅游业 | tourism | tourist | travel | hotel | development | festival | culture | business | service | official |
毒品犯罪 | drug | crime | regional | transnational | cooperation | organized | meeting | illicit | map | medical |
人权侵犯 | right | human | prison | government | year | activist | political | authority | torture | court |
航天活动 | space | flight | air | aerospace | business | craft | security | government | force | oil |
表3
“一带一路”沿线国家新闻主题频率统计"
国家 | 主题频率/% | 总数 | ||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
经济 活动 | 政治 外交 | 能源活动 | 宗教 活动 | 海军活动 | 军事 活动 | 军事 冲突 | 种族 冲突 | 恐怖 袭击 | 核制裁 | 治安 问题 | 教育 活动 | 难民 活动 | 医疗 健康 | 航空活动 | 旅游业 | 毒品活动 | 人权 侵犯 | 航天活动 | ||
阿富汗 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - | 1.0 | - | 0.9 | 75.4 | - | 15.3 | - | - | - | 4.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 524935 |
巴基斯坦 | 15.3 | 9.0 | 2.8 | - | - | 3.8 | - | - | 55.1 | - | 11.1 | 2.6 | - | 0.3 | - | - | - | - | - | 1186574 |
伊朗 | 18.1 | 22.0 | 16.5 | - | 5.3 | 8.8 | - | - | 9.1 | 20.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 693298 |
阿联酋 | 62.6 | 6.5 | 14.3 | - | - | - | 2.7 | - | - | - | 2.0 | 5.4 | - | - | 6.5 | - | - | - | - | 171177 |
卡塔尔 | 38.2 | 8.9 | 13.4 | - | - | 34 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.5 | - | - | 5.0 | - | - | - | - | 139151 |
叙利亚 | - | 7.2 | - | 10.0 | - | - | 50.9 | - | 4.4 | - | - | - | 27.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1168732 |
沙特 | 21.6 | 26.2 | 13.9 | 10.0 | - | 17.7 | - | - | 10.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 438969 |
阿曼 | 85.5 | - | 4.0 | - | - | 3.7 | - | - | - | - | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | 6.3 | - | - | - | 50571 |
也门 | 1.8 | 26.3 | - | - | - | - | 53.8 | - | 10.8 | - | - | - | 5.1 | 2.2 | - | - | - | - | - | 162086 |
伊拉克 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 9.6 | 6.1 | - | - | 50.4 | - | 24.8 | - | - | - | 6.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 508338 |
科威特 | 28.8 | 1.0 | 15.6 | 0.5 | - | 9 | - | - | 23.5 | - | 17.6 | 0.8 | - | - | - | 3.2 | - | - | - | 75319 |
约旦 | 20.3 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 12.6 | - | 21.6 | - | - | 11.4 | - | - | 3.7 | 22.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 124865 |
印度尼西亚 | 37.1 | 5.8 | 18.1 | 11.8 | - | - | - | - | 9.3 | - | 17.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 350920 |
老挝 | 36.3 | 31.3 | - | - | - | 8.6 | - | - | - | - | 14.6 | 0.9 | - | - | - | 4.0 | 4.3 | - | - | 29458 |
马来西亚 | 56.5 | 24.3 | 0.8 | 6.6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.7 | 3.7 | - | - | - | 0.4 | - | - | - | 453574 |
泰国 | 37.3 | 19.8 | - | - | - | 10.5 | - | - | - | - | 2.0 | - | 4 | - | - | 22.9 | 3.5 | - | - | 257293 |
缅甸 | 9.9 | 11.3 | - | - | - | 14.1 | - | 39.6 | - | - | - | 1.9 | 23.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 79334 |
菲律宾 | 34.9 | 14.1 | - | 17.9 | - | - | - | - | 12.8 | - | 20.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 179572 |
越南 | 73.3 | - | - | - | - | 4.3 | - | - | - | - | 2.7 | 9.4 | - | - | 3.8 | 6.5 | - | - | - | 439741 |
柬埔寨 | 49.9 | 2.5 | - | - | - | 2.6 | - | - | - | - | 8.1 | 11.0 | 9.7 | - | - | 16.2 | - | - | - | 181195 |
哈萨克斯坦 | 36.2 | 21.4 | 20.2 | - | - | 12.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9.7 | 60362 |
吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 31.8 | 32.7 | 12.6 | - | - | 11.6 | 11.3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 22472 |
乌兹别克斯坦 | 17.0 | 40.8 | 3.3 | 8.0 | - | 13.8 | - | - | 12 | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4.1 | - | 12574 |
塔吉克斯坦 | 27.3 | 22.4 | 1.7 | 19.5 | - | 14.4 | - | - | 14.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 16438 |
土库曼斯坦 | 18.4 | 7.9 | 29.6 | 9.1 | - | 24.8 | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | - | 9.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | 18399 |
表7
部分主题对应的主题词及概率"
事件 | 主题词1 | 主题词2 | 主题词3 | 主题词4 | 主题词5 | 主题词6 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
主题词 | 概率 | 主题词 | 概率 | 主题词 | 概率 | 主题词 | 概率 | 主题词 | 概率 | 主题词 | 概率 | ||||||
政治选举 | election | 0.043 | electoral | 0.029 | republic | 0.023 | commission | 0.021 | district | 0.016 | democratic | 0.015 | |||||
反恐 | terrorism | 0032 | member | 0.021 | security | 0.016 | combating | 0.014 | extremism | 0.014 | terrorist | 0.013 | |||||
旅游开发 | tourism | 0.057 | tourist | 0.020 | development | 0.016 | travel | 0.015 | tour | 0.014 | hotel | 0.012 | |||||
人权侵犯 | human right | 0.042 | government | 0.017 | freedom | 0.013 | activist | 0.011 | political | 0.010 | authority | 0.010 | |||||
种植业 | cotton | 0.034 | agriculture | 0.021 | agriculture | 0.021 | farmer | 0.017 | work | 0.014 | machinery | 0.011 | |||||
纺织工业 | cotton | 0.076 | textile | 0.060 | industry | 0.030 | enterprise | 0.025 | fiber | 0.016 | export | 0.012 | |||||
矿产开发 | mining | 0.043 | mineral | 0.037 | resource | 0.030 | gold | 0.026 | company | 0.018 | copper | 0.014 | |||||
能源贸易 | gas | 0.108 | pipeline | 0.043 | oil | 0.035 | ton | 0.027 | energy | 0.026 | economic | 0.018 |
[1] | 杜德斌, 马亚华. 2015. “一带一路”: 中华民族复兴的地缘大战略[J]. 地理研究, 34(6): 1005-1014. |
[Du D B, Ma Y H.2015. One Belt and One Road: The grand geo-strategy of China's rise. Geographical Research, 34(6): 1005-1014. ] | |
[2] | 杜庆昊. 2016. “一带一路”战略面临的安全风险和对策建议[J]. 实事求是, (6): 29-33. |
[Du Q H.2016. Security risks and countermeasures for the the Belt and Road Initiative. Seek Truth From Facts, (6): 29-33. ] | |
[3] | 国家发展改革委, 外交部, 商务部. 2015. 推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动 [M]. 北京: 外交出版社. |
[National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Commerce of China. 2015. Vision and actions on jointly building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-century maritime Silk Road. Beijing, China: Foreign Languages Press. ] | |
[4] | 刘倩. 2018. 南亚恐怖主义与“一带一路”沿线的海外利益保护[J]. 印度洋经济体研究,(5): 55-78, 139-140. |
[Liu Q.2018. South Asia terrorism and overseas interest protection along the Belt and Road. Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review,(5): 55-78, 139-140. ] | |
[5] |
刘卫东. 2015. “一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J]. 地理科学进展, 34(5): 538-544.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.001 |
[Liu W D.2015. Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes. Progress in Geography, 34(5): 538-544. ]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.05.001 |
|
[6] | 马丽蓉. 2018. “一带一路”沿线伊斯兰支点国家建设及其安全风险防范研究[J]. 世界宗教文化, (1): 14-19. |
[Ma L R.2018. Research on the construction of Islamic fulcrum countries along the Belt and Road and its security risk prevention. The World Religious Cultures, (1): 14-19. ] | |
[7] | 施国庆, 张锐连, 彭胜平, 等. 2017. 中国-巴基斯坦经济走廊投资社会风险探究[J]. 河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 19(1): 59-64, 90. |
[Shi G Q, Zhang R L, Peng S P, et al.2017. Social risks of investment in China-Pakistan economic corridor. Journal of Hohai University (Philosophy and Social Sciences), 19(1): 59-64, 90. ] | |
[8] | 宋长青, 葛岳静, 刘云刚,等. 2018. 从地缘关系视角解析“一带一路”的行动路径[J]. 地理研究, 37(1): 3-19. |
[Song C Q, Ge Y J, Liu Y G, et al.2018. Undertaking research on the Belt and Road Initiative from the geo-relation perspective. Geographical Research, 37(1): 3-19. ] | |
[9] | 王伟, 李佳静, 瓮佳佳. 2015. 一种基于网络敏感信息挖掘的量化社会稳定分析技术框架[J]. 计算机工程与科学, (6):1214-1220. |
[Wang W, Li J J, Weng J J.2015. Asocial stability analysis system based on web sensitive information mining. Computer Engineering & Science, (6): 1214-1220. ] | |
[10] | 薛力. 2015. 中国“一带一路”战略面对的外交风险[J]. 国际经济评论,(2): 68-79, 65. |
[Xue L.2015. Diplomatic risks facing China's the Belt and Road strategy. International Economic Review,(2): 68-79, 65. ] | |
[11] | 杨思灵. 2015. “一带一路”倡议下中国与沿线国家关系治理及挑战[J]. 南亚研究,(2): 15-34, 154-155. |
[Yang S L.2015. The management of China's relations with its neighbors and its chanllenges under the Initiative of One Belt One Road. South Asian Studies,(2): 15-34, 154-155. ] | |
[12] | 阎耀军. 2004. 社会稳定的计量及预警预控管理系统的构建[J]. 社会学研究, (3): 1-10. |
[Yan Y J.2004. Construction of social stability measurement and early warning pre-control management system. Sociological Research, (3): 1-10. ] | |
[13] | 俞成勇, 邱红霞, 许文飞. 2013. “社会稳定指数”量化社会稳定: 建立社会稳定“气象报告”的构想[J]. 公安学刊(浙江警察学院学报),(5): 19-22, 28. |
[Yu C Y, Qiu H X, Xu W F.2013. "Social stability index" quantifies social stability: Conception of establishing social stability "Meteorological report". Public Security Science Journal (Journal of Zhejiang Police College),(5): 19-22, 28. ] | |
[14] | 张明. 2015. 直面“一带一路”的六大风险[J]. 国际经济评论, (4): 38-41. |
[Zhang M.2015. Facing the six risks of the Belt and Road. International Economic Review, (4): 38-41. ] | |
[15] | 赵亚博, 刘晓凤, 葛岳静. 2017. “一带一路”沿线国家油气资源分布格局及其与中国合作中的相互依赖关系[J]. 地理研究, 36(12): 2305-2320. |
[Zhao Y B, Liu X F, Ge Y J.2017. Analysis of the oil and gas resource distribution pattern along the Belt and Road and the interdependence relationship with China. Geographical Research, 36(12): 2305-2320. ] | |
[16] | 中国出口信用保险公司. 2017. 国家风险分析报告 [M]. 北京: 中国财政经济出版社. |
[China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation. 2017. The year book of country risk. Beijing, China:China Financial & Economic Publishing House. ] | |
[17] | 朱庆芳, 吴寒. 2001. 社会指标体系 [M]. 北京: 中国社会科学出版社. |
[Zhu Q F, Wu H.2001. Social indicator system . Beijing,China: China Social Sciences Press. ] | |
[18] | Blei D M, Ng A Y, Jordan M I.2003. Latent dirichlet allocation[J]. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 3: 993-1022. |
[19] |
Bodas-Sagi D J, Labeaga J M.2016. Using GDELT data to evaluate the con dence on the Spanish government energy policy[J]. International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, 3(6): 38-43.
doi: 10.9781/ijimai.2016.366 |
[20] | Keertipati S, Savarimuthu B T R, Purvis M, et al.2014. Multi-level analysis of peace and conflict data in GDELT[C]// Proceedings of the MLSDA 2014 2nd Workshop on Machine Learning for Sensory Data Analysis. New York, USA: ACM: 33. |
[21] | Leetaru K, Schrodt P A.2013. GDELT: Gobal data on events, location, and tone, 1979-2012[C]// ISA Annual Convention Vol. 2. San Francisco, USA: Citeseer: 1-49. |
[22] | Ramage D, Hall D, Nallapati R, et al.2009. Labeled LDA: A supervised topic model for credit attribution in multi-labeled corpora[C]// Proceedings of the 2009 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. Singapore: Association for Computational Linguistics: 248-256. |
[23] | Yonamine J E.2013. A nuanced study of political conflict using the global datasets of events location and tone (GDELT) dataset [D]. University Park, USA: The Pennsylvania State University. |
[1] | 杨延杰, 尹丹, 刘紫玟, 黄庆旭, 何春阳, 吴康. 基于大数据的流空间研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(8): 1397-1411. |
[2] | 郭建科, 侯雅洁, 何瑶. “一带一路”背景下中欧港口航运网络的演化特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(5): 716-726. |
[3] | 陈洪星, 杨德刚, 李江月, 武荣伟, 霍金炜. 大数据视角下的商业中心和热点区分布特征及其影响因素分析——以乌鲁木齐主城区为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(5): 738-750. |
[4] | 宋周莺, 虞洋. “一带一路”沿线贸易便利化发展格局研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 355-366. |
[5] | 刘骁啸, 吴康. 功能疏解背景下京津冀中部核心区产业投资网络演化研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(12): 1972-1984. |
[6] | 宋周莺, 祝巧玲. “一带一路”背景下的中国与巴基斯坦的贸易关系演进及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(11): 1785-1797. |
[7] | 杨俊, 由浩琳, 张育庆, 金翠. 从传统数据到大数据+的人居环境研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(1): 166-176. |
[8] | 郑智, 刘卫东, 宋周莺, 叶尔肯·吾扎提, 梁宜. “一带一路”生产网络及中国参与程度[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 951-962. |
[9] | 杜方叶, 王姣娥, 谢家昊, 杜德林. “一带一路”背景下中国国际航空网络的空间格局及演变[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 963-972. |
[10] | 段德忠, 谌颖, 杜德斌. “一带一路”技术贸易格局演化研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(7): 998-1008. |
[11] | 申犁帆, 张纯, 李赫, 王烨, 王子甲. 城市轨道交通通勤与职住平衡状况的关系研究——基于大数据方法的北京实证分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(6): 791-806. |
[12] | 胡伟, 胡志丁, 葛岳静. 中国地缘环境研究进展与思考[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(4): 477-488. |
[13] | 陈艺文,李二玲. “一带一路”国家粮食贸易网络空间格局及其演化机制[J]. 地理科学进展, 2019, 38(10): 1643-1654. |
[14] | 杨喜平, 方志祥. 移动定位大数据视角下的人群移动模式及城市空间结构研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(7): 880-889. |
[15] | 黄洁, 王姣娥, 靳海涛, 金凤君. 北京市地铁客流的时空分布格局及特征——基于智能交通卡数据[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(3): 397-406. |
|