外商直接投资技术溢出空间效应及其变化——基于中国地级市的实证研究

doi:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.12.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

FDI(外商直接投资)对内资企业的技术溢出效应是国内外研究的重要话题,但相关文献多为静态研究。本文认为FDI的技术溢出存在时间效应,即FDI对内资企业的技术溢出或挤出效应,随着FDI进入东道国的时间推移而变化。利用2003-2007年中国工业企业数据库,以通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业为例,对城市面板数据建立门槛回归模型,研究FDI技术溢出效应随时间变化的动态过程。结果表明,随着FDI进入东道国的时间推移,技术溢出效应的变化呈扁S曲线：初始,FDI对内资企业表现为明显的挤出效应;3~4年后,逐渐由挤出效应向溢出效应转变;随着时间的进一步推移,溢出效应减缓下降,最终表现为不明显的溢出或挤出效应。此外,对不同所有制的内资企业,FDI技术溢出效应随时间变化的动态过程不同。

关键词: FDI技术溢出效应, 时间效应, 门槛回归模型, 地级市城市面板, 中国

Abstract:

Foreign direct investment (FDI) technology spillover is an important topic in China and abroad, but most research do not address the temporal change of such effects. This paper argues that there is a temporal dimension of the effect of FDI technology spillover. FDI effects on domestic enterprises change between spillover and crowding out over time. Using a prefecture level city panel dataset of the communication equipment, computer, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2007, we made an empirical study on the dynamic process of FDI technology spillover and found that the process is a lying S curve: at the initial stage of FDI entering the host country, there was a significant crowding out effect. In 3 to 4 years after the initial stage, the effect gradual shifted to spillover. With time, spillover slowed and declined, eventually reached a point where there was no significant spillover or crowding out. In addition, the process of FDI technology spillover varied for domestic enterprises of different ownership types.

Key words: FDI technology spillover, temporal change of effect, threshold regression model, prefecture-level city panel data, China

中图分类号:

F125.7

季颖颖, 郭琪, 贺灿飞. 外商直接投资技术溢出空间效应及其变化——基于中国地级市的实证研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(12): 1614-1623.

Yingying JI, Qi GUO, Canfei HE. Spatial effects of foreign direct investment technology spillover and its changes: empirical study based on panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2014, 33(12): 1614-1623.

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LN_TFP	所有内资企业		民营企业		国有企业
FDI	-0.068^***	-0.066^**	-0.028^*	-0.028^*	0.226^***	0.262^***
AGE	-0.007	-0.028^*	-0.001	-0.003	-0.096^***	-0.351^***
AGE²	0.000	0.003^*	0.000	0.000	0.005^***	0.039^***
AGE³		-0.000^*		-0.000		-0.001^***
LN_RD	0.005^**	0.005^**
GAP	-0.027^***	-0.027^***
EXP	0.016	0.015
LN_RD_M			0.001	0.001
GAP_M			-0.025^***	-0.025^***
EXP_M			0.034^**	0.034^**
LN_RD_G					0.024^***	0.023^***
GAP_G					-0.089^***	-0.089^***
EXP_G					0.213^***	0.218^***
SYS	-0.073^***	-0.070^***	-0.055^***	-0.055^***	0.201^***	0.245^***
_cons	2.285^***	2.335^***	2.450^***	2.455^***	2.341^***	2.848^***
r2	0.301	0.308	0.268	0.268	0.500	0.559
r2_w	0.301	0.308	0.268	0.268	0.500	0.559
F	11.137	10.012	13.464	11.741	44.733	49.518

模型	所有内资企业			民营企业		国有企业		循环次数
模型	F值		P值		F值	P值	F值	P值
单一门槛	7.290**	0.030		8.886**	0.030	33.248***	0.000	100
双重门槛	9.609**	0.020		7.094*	0.060	47.413***	0.010	100
三重门槛	3.044	0.130		3.390	0.130	29.845***	0.000	100

	所有内资企业	民营企业	国有企业
单一门槛模型：	2.932	4.500	2.857
	[2.600, 2.932]	[3.750, 8.750]	[2.600, 11.379]
双重门槛模型：
门槛1	3.400	6.965	11.315
	[3.048, 3.600]	[4.750, 11.875]	[3.000, 11.379]
门槛2	2.932	4.500	2.857
	[2.600, 2.932]	[3.750, 4.662]	[2.600, 3.000]
三重门槛模型：	7.484	7.333	3.075
	[4.000, 12.000]	[2.250, 11.875]	[3.075, 3.075]

	所有内资企业			民营企业			国有企业
	单一门槛		双重门槛		单一门槛	双重门槛	单一门槛	双重门槛
FDI_D1	-0.066^*	-0.071^*		-0.028^*	-0.009		-0.539^***	-0.640^***
FDI_D2	0.019	0.077^***		0.000	0.022^**		0.075	0.084
FDI_D3		0.008			0.000			-0.519^***
LN_RD	0.007^***	0.007^***
GAP	-0.053^***	-0.051^***
EXP	0.037^**	0.035^**
LN_RD_M				0.002^*	0.002^*
GAP_M				-0.019^***	-0.019^***
EXP_M				0.033^***	0.031^***
LN_RD_G							0.042^***	0.027^**
GAP_G							-0.059^**	-0.057^***
EXP_G							0.422^***	0.467^***
SYS	-0.013	-0.011		-0.046^***	-0.042^***		0.162^*	0.179^*
_cons	2.188^***	2.192^***		2.427^***	2.423^***		1.954^***	1.964^***
r2	0.293	0.309		0.194	0.208		0.566	0.612
F	22.57	20.81		12.12	11.31		68.24	70.53