地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 587-601.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.03.014

• 研究综述 • 上一篇    下一篇

复合极端事件及其危险性评估研究进展

方建1,2(), 陶凯1,2, 牟莎1,2, 方佳毅3, 杜士强4   

  1. 1.华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，武汉 430079
    2.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院，武汉 430079
    3.杭州师范大学遥感与地球科学研究院，杭州 311121
    4.上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院，上海 200234
  • 收稿日期:2022-07-29 修回日期:2022-11-21 出版日期:2023-03-28 发布日期:2023-03-27
  • 作者简介:方建(1988— )，男，安徽安庆人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为全球变化与灾害风险。E-mail: fj20061028@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42077441);国家自然科学基金项目(42001096)

Progress of research on compound extreme event and hazard assessment

FANG Jian1,2(), TAO Kai1,2, MU Sha1,2, FANG Jiayi3, DU Shiqiang4   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
    3. Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, School of Information Science and Technology, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, China
    4. School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
  • Received:2022-07-29 Revised:2022-11-21 Online:2023-03-28 Published:2023-03-27
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(42077441);National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(42001096)

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摘要：

近年来频发的极端天气气候事件引起了广泛关注，其灾害过程往往源自多个因素的相互作用，给区域安全和风险防范带来诸多挑战。论文结合文献计量，在系统梳理复合极端事件相关研究的基础上，重点阐述了复合极端事件的概念内涵、类型特征和主要驱动因素，并归纳了复合事件时空关联分析和危险性评估的主要方法。结果表明：① 近年来研究的事件类型丰富多样，不同时空关联、不同要素组合类型事件的研究不断涌现；② 研究内容体系日益完善，概念特征、关联关系、成因机制和危险性评估的研究持续推进；③ 研究技术手段不断发展，以Copula为核心的联合概率统计建模实现由二维向多维、由静态向动态发展，以耦合水文水动力学模型和海洋模式为代表的数值模拟精细度不断提高。但在部分重难点问题方面仍需进一步深入研究，包括时间继发型和空间异地型复合事件复杂时空关联结构的诊断建模，天气系统、大尺度环流因子和人类活动多因素对复合事件综合影响的研究，复合事件危险性情景及多维联合概率分析等。此外，未来亟需探究气候变化下复合事件边缘分布和关联结构的非平稳变化及其对复合事件风险的影响。

关键词: 极端天气气候事件, 复合极端事件, 时空关联关系, 驱动因素, 危险性评估

Abstract:

In recent years, the frequent extreme weather and climate events have attracted wide attention. Their disastrous process often stems from the interaction of multiple factors, which brings many challenges to regional security and risk prevention. Starting from a bibliometric analysis, this article systematically reviewed the progress of research on compound extreme events by focusing on the conceptual features, classification, and driving factors of such events, and summarizing the main methods for the spatial-temporal dependance analysis and hazard assessment of compound events. The review found that: 1) The research on compound extreme events has developed rapidly in recent years, and the types of events studied have become increasingly rich and diverse. 2) The research system has been established and increasingly improved, with significant advance in the research on the conceptual characteristics, dependance, causative mechanism, and risk assessment. 3) The research techniques were constantly evolving. Statistical modeling for joint probability based on Copula has developed from two-dimensional to multidimensional, and from static to dynamic; the precision of numerical simulations represented by the coupled hydrological-hydrodynamic and ocean models has been continuously improved. But further in-depth studies are still needed, especially for some key and difficult problems, such as diagnosing and modeling the complex dependance structure of temporally and spatially compounding events, the synthetic effect of weather system, large-scale circulation and human activity impact on the formation of compound events, hazard scenarios and multidimensional joint probability analysis of compound events, and so on. In addition, it is urgent to explore the non-stationary changes of the marginal distribution and dependance structure of compound events under climate change and their impact on the risk of compound events in the future.

Key words: extreme weather/climate events, compound extreme events, spatio-temporal dependance, drivers, hazard assessment