中国旅游经济韧性的时空演化及影响机理研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.03.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旅游经济韧性涉及旅游业高质量发展。论文利用1998—2020年中国旅游发展相关数据，在定量测度省域旅游经济韧性的基础上，分析其时空演化特征并揭示影响机理。结果表明：1998—2020年中国旅游经济具有较强的韧性，个别年份的特殊事件没有从根本上改变旅游经济长期向好的趋势。中国旅游经济韧性时空演化具有不稳定性与空间集聚性特征，空间马尔科夫链模型分析结果表明，旅游经济韧性向高值区演化的概率较高，不同水平的旅游经济韧性总体上呈集聚分布。利用地理探测器分析区域旅游经济韧性的影响机理，交互主导因子的q值总体上大于单个影响因子的最大值，说明旅游经济韧性的影响总体上是“合力”作用的结果。东部地区旅游经济韧性总体上与旅游业内部要素关系密切，属于“内生驱动型”，中西部地区旅游经济韧性与外部社会经济要素关系密切，总体上属于“外生驱动型”，促进内外循环对提升区域经济韧性具有重要的作用。旅游经济韧性时空演化机制研究可为客观认识旅游业高质量发展以及区域旅游面对风险挑战提供理论依据与决策参考。

关键词: 旅游经济, 韧性, 空间马尔科夫链, 高质量发展

Abstract:

Tourism economic resilience involves high-quality development of tourism. By using the relevant data of tourism development in the Chinese mainland from 1998 to 2020 and based on the quantitative measurement of provincial tourism economic resilience, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of tourism economic resilience and revealed the mechanism of impact. The main conclusions of the study are as follows: China's tourism economy has strong resilience from 1998 to 2020, and the special events in individual years have not fundamentally changed the long-term positive trend. The temporal and spatial evolution of China's tourism economic resilience has the characteristics of instability and spatial agglomeration. The results of the spatial Markov chain model show that the probability of evolution of tourism economic resilience to high-value areas is high, and the tourism economic resilience at different levels generally presents agglomeration distribution. The mechanism of impact of regional tourism economic resilience was analyzed by using geographical detectors. The value of interactive leading factor q is generally greater than the maximum value of a single influencing factor, and this reflects that the impact on tourism economic resilience is generally from "resultant force". In general, the tourism economic resilience of the eastern region is closely related to the internal factors of the tourism industry, which indicates an endogenous driving type. The tourism economic resilience of the central and western regions is closely related to the external socioeconomic factors, which belongs to an exogenous driving type. Promoting the internal and external circulations of the economy plays an important role in improving the regional economic resilience. The research on the temporal and spatial evolution mechanism of tourism economic resilience provides a theoretical basis and decision-making reference for an objective understanding of the high-quality development of tourism and the risks and challenges faced by regional tourism.

Key words: tourism economy, resilience, spatial Markov chain model, high-quality development

方叶林, 王秋月, 黄震方, 吴燕妮. 中国旅游经济韧性的时空演化及影响机理研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(3): 417-427.

FANG Yelin, WANG Qiuyue, HUANG Zhenfang, WU Yanni. Spatial and temporal evolution of tourism economic resilience and mechanism of impact in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(3): 417-427.

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空间滞后	t_i时期韧性区域	n	t_i+1时期韧性区域
空间滞后	t_i时期韧性区域	n	低值区	中值区	高值区
1	低值区	20	<0.001	0.008	0.992
	中值区	34	<0.001	0.100	0.900
	高值区	176	0.058	0.198	0.744
2	低值区	19	<0.001	0.103	0.897
	中值区	51	0.017	0.237	0.746
	高值区	160	0.049	0.238	0.713
3	低值区	25	<0.001	0.094	0.906
	中值区	48	0.077	0.123	0.800
	高值区	180	0.049	0.257	0.694

探测因子	全国	东部	中部	西部
旅游资源丰富度(ZY)	0.354	0.285	0.564	0.400
旅游业固定资产(GD)	0.254	0.161	0.438	0.302
旅游从业人员(RY)	0.387	0.144	0.402	0.174
区域经济(EC)	0.321	0.461	0.401	0.491
交通状况(TR)	0.201	0.153	0.421	0.224
市场因素(MA)	0.358	0.435	0.592	0.350
城镇化(UR)	0.386	0.612	0.385	0.231
产业结构高级化(IG)	0.315	0.197	0.182	0.416
产业结构合理化(IH)	0.208	0.597	0.102	0.405
主导交互因子	GD∩IG	ZY∩GD	TR∩MA	EC∩IG
主导交互因子q值	0.705	0.786	0.727	0.754