中国新基建发展的时空演变及驱动因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.02.001

地理科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 209-220.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.02.001

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

中国新基建发展的时空演变及驱动因素

张佩¹(), 王姣娥¹^,²^,^*(), 肖凡¹^,²

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2022-06-30 修回日期:2022-10-13 出版日期:2023-02-28 发布日期:2023-02-24
通讯作者: * 王姣娥(1981— )，女，湖南涟源人，研究员，博士生导师，研究方向为交通地理与区域发展研究等。E-mail: wangje@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:张佩(1992— )，男，河南灵宝人，博士，博士后，研究方向为新基建与区域发展。E-mail: zhangpei@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家杰出青年科学基金项目(42225106);中国博士后科学基金项目(2022M713121)

Spatial evolution and determinants of new infrastructure development in China

ZHANG Pei¹(), WANG Jiao'e¹^,²^,^*(), XIAO Fan¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-06-30 Revised:2022-10-13 Online:2023-02-28 Published:2023-02-24
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China for Distinguished Young Scholars(42225106);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Program(2022M713121)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新基建已成为中国现阶段经济转型与高质量发展的重要支撑。为考察中国新基建发展时空演变及其驱动因素，论文基于2013—2020年的省级面板数据，构建新基建发展水平的综合评价指标，进而运用TOPSIS-熵值法和空间计量模型对其进行测度及影响因素分析。结果发现：① 中国新基建发展水平逐年提高，各省域之间的差距呈现出不断缩小的趋势；② 中国新基建发展水平存在着较大的空间异质性，东部地区远高于中部、西部和东北地区，整体时空演化格局呈现出东西扩张态势，重心不断向西南方向移动；③ 新基建发展水平受到多种因素的影响，其中，经济发展水平、金融发展水平、创新基础、城市化进程和人口规模等是关键性驱动因素。论文通过考察中国新基建在时空上的格局演化及其影响因素，希冀为其优化布局与发展提供决策参考。

关键词: 新型基础设施, 信息基建, 融合基建, 创新基建, 发展水平, 中国

Abstract:

New infrastructure has become an important support for China's economic transformation and high-quality development in the new era. In order to investigate the temporal and spatial evolution of China's new infrastructure development and its driving factors, this study first constructed a comprehensive evaluation index of the development level of new infrastructure based on the provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020. Then, it used the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) entropy method and spatial econometric model to measure the development level of new infrastructure and analyze its driving factors. The results show that: 1) The development level of China's new infrastructure has increased year by year, and there is a trend of balanced development among provinces. 2) There is great spatial heterogeneity in the development level of China's new infrastructure. The new infrastructure development level is much higher in the eastern region than the central, western, and northeastern regions. The overall temporal and spatial evolution pattern showed an east-west expansion trend, and the center of gravity continued to move to the southwest. 3) The development level of new infrastructure is affected by many factors, among which the economic development level, financial development level, innovation foundation, urbanization process, and population size are the key driving factors. By examining the evolution of the spatial pattern of China's new infrastructure development level and its influencing factors, this article may provide a decision-making reference for its optimal layout and development.

Key words: new infrastructure, information infrastructure, convergence infrastructure, innovation infrastructure, development level, China

张佩, 王姣娥, 肖凡. 中国新基建发展的时空演变及驱动因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(2): 209-220.

ZHANG Pei, WANG Jiao'e, XIAO Fan. Spatial evolution and determinants of new infrastructure development in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(2): 209-220.

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	四级指标
信息基础设施(N₁)	通信网络基础设施(N₁₁)	5G(N₁₁₁) 物联网(N₁₁₂) 工业互联网(N₁₁₃) 卫星互联网(N₁₁₄)	移动电话基站数量(N₁₁₁₁) 物联网相关企业数量(N₁₁₂₁) 工业互联网相关企业数量(N₁₁₃₁) 卫星互联网相关企业数量(N₁₁₄₁)
	新技术基础设施(N₁₂)	人工智能(N₁₂₁) 云计算(N₁₂₂) 区块链(N₁₂₃)	人工智能相关企业数量(N₁₂₁₁) 云计算相关企业数量(N₁₂₂₁) 区块链相关企业数量(N₁₂₃₁)
	算力基础设施(N₁₃)	数据中心(N₁₃₁) 智能计算中心(N₁₃₂)	数据中心相关企业数量(N₁₃₁₁) 国家超级计算中心数量(N₁₃₂₁)
融合基础设施(N₂)	智慧交通基础设施(N₂₁)	城际高速铁路与城际轨道交通(N₂₁₁) 智慧交通(N₂₁₂)	轨道交通里程(N₂₁₁₁) 智慧交通相关企业数量(N₂₁₂₁)
	智慧能源基础设施(N₂₂)	特高压(N₂₂₁) 充电桩(N₂₂₂) 能源生产和利用设施智能化(N₂₂₃)	特高压相关企业数量(N₂₂₁₁) 充电桩相关企业数量(N₂₂₂₁) 智慧能源相关企业数量(N₂₂₃₁₎
	防疫基建(N₂₃)	医疗IT(N₂₃₁) 智慧城市(N₂₃₂)	智慧医疗相关企业数量(N₂₃₁₁) 智慧生活相关企业数量(N₂₃₂₁)
创新基础设施(N₃)	重大科技基础设施(N₃₁)	重大科技基础设施(N₃₁₁)	重大科技基础设施数量(N₃₁₁₁)
	科教基础设施(N₃₂)	学科研究平台(N₃₂₁)	国家重点实验室数量(N₃₂₁₁)
	产业技术创新基础设施(N₃₃)	产业技术创新基础设施(N₃₃₁)	高新技术特色产业基地数量(N₃₃₁₁)

变量	符号	名称	测算方法	单位
因变量	New	新基建发展水平	综合测算指标	—
自变量	PGDP	经济发展水平	人均GDP	万元
	AIS1	产业结构高度化	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值	—
	AIS2	产业结构合理化	借鉴袁航等^[29]采用Theil测算	—
	FD	金融发展水平	年末全部金融机构各项贷款余额/GDP	—
	INNO	创新基础	研发人员全时当量	万人
	UP	城镇化进程	城镇人口比重	%
	POP	人口规模	总人口	亿人

检验方法	结果
LM_spatial_error	3.137^*
LM_spatial_lag	5.417^**
Hausman	86.49^***
LR_sar	31.55^***
LR_sem	18.04^**
Wald_spatial_error	17.65^**
Wald_spatial_lag	17.13^**

变量	时间固定效应(M1)	个体固定效应(M2)	混合固定效应(M3)
PGDP	0.036^*** (<0.01)	0.102^*** (<0.01)	0.071^*** (<0.01)
AIS1	0.017^*** (<0.01)	0.020^* (0.07)	0.027^*** (0.01)
AIS2	0.145^*** (<0.01)	0.044 (0.18)	0.006 (0.83)
FD	0.035^*** (<0.01)	-0.002 (0.83)	-0.016^** (0.02)
INNO	0.004^*** (<0.01)	0.006^*** (<0.01)	0.006^*** (<0.01)
UP	0.194^*** (<0.01)	-0.540^*** (<0.01)	-0.671^*** (<0.01)
POP	0.077^*** (<0.01)	0.952^*** (<0.01)	0.964^*** (<0.01)
W*PGDP	0.048^** (0.04)	0.022 (0.49)	0.003 (0.93)
W*AIS1	-0.005 (0.59)	-0.036^** (0.05)	0.010 (0.60)
W*AIS2	0.043 (0.33)	0.140^* (0.05)	0.031 (0.64)
W*FD	0.026^** (0.04)	-0.002 (0.90)	-0.056^*** (<0.01)
W*INNO	0.003^*** (<0.01)	0.003^** (0.03)	0.004^*** (<0.01)
W*UP	-0.165^*** (<0.01)	0.988^*** (<0.01)	0.366^*** (0.01)
W*POP	-0.066^*** (<0.01)	-0.031 (0.91)	0.350 (0.16)
ρ	-0.323^*** (<0.01)	-0.012 (0.89)	-0.431^*** (<0.01)
sigma2_e	0.001^*** (<0.01)	<0.001^*** (<0.01)	<0.001^*** (<0.01)
样本数	248	248	248
R²	0.815	0.237	0.192
地区数	31	31	31

变量	直接效应	间接效应	总效应
PGDP	0.035^**	0.028	0.063^***
PGDP	(0.01)	(0.13)	(<0.01)
AIS1	0.017^***	-0.008	0.009
AIS1	(<0.01)	(0.33)	(0.22)
AIS2	0.149^***	-0.002	0.147^***
AIS2	(<0.01)	(0.96)	(<0.01)
FD	0.034^***	0.011	0.045^***
FD	(<0.01)	(0.26)	(<0.01)
INNO	0.004^***	0.002^***	0.006^***
INNO	(<0.01)	(<0.01)	(<0.01)
UP	0.213^***	-0.184^***	0.028
UP	(<0.01)	(<0.01)	(0.36)
POP	0.084^***	-0.074^***	0.010
POP	(<0.01)	(<0.01)	(0.57)

中国新基建发展的时空演变及驱动因素

Spatial evolution and determinants of new infrastructure development in China

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