面向可持续发展的水—能源—粮食纽带关系系统解析及其研究框架

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.014

地理科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 173-184.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2023.01.014

面向可持续发展的水—能源—粮食纽带关系系统解析及其研究框架

郝林钢¹^,²(), 于静洁¹^,²^,^*(), 王平¹^,², 韩春辉³

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室，北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.华北水利水电大学水资源学院，郑州 450046

收稿日期:2022-06-15 修回日期:2022-09-17 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-03-28
通讯作者: *于静洁(1964— )，女，吉林四平人，博士，研究员，博士生导师，主要研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail: yujj@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:郝林钢(1991— )，男，河南新乡人，博士生，主要研究方向为水文水资源。E-mail: haolg.20b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20040302);国家自然科学基金项目(52109017)

Analysis of the water-energy-food nexus system for sustainable development and its research framework

HAO Lingang¹^,²(), YU Jingjie¹^,²^,^*(), WANG Ping¹^,², HAN Chunhui³

1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Received:2022-06-15 Revised:2022-09-17 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-03-28
Supported by:
Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20040302);National Natural Science Foundation of China(52109017)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水资源、能源、粮食安全是实现可持续发展的重要支撑，与可持续发展各目标存在紧密联系。论文基于水—能源—粮食纽带关系(WEF nexus)系统相关的理论、方法与应用等最新研究成果，根据研究对象的时空尺度，考虑系统物质、能量、信息交换，重新解析了WEF nexus系统的定义与组成、内部相互作用过程、输入与输出、影响因素；阐明了气候变化对水、能源、粮食3个子系统及其纽带关系，以及不同类别人类活动对WEF nexus系统的正面和负面影响。进一步分析了水、能源、粮食与可持续发展目标的关联性，以“研究主题—学科理论—技术方法—实践应用”为主线，提出了面向可持续发展的WEF nexus系统研究框架及其3个核心研究内容：WEF nexus系统内部纽带关系和总体状态评估、系统变化的驱动因素识别和系统的外部性影响分析。最后，针对WEF nexus系统跨学科分析的需求，基于纽带关系的理论研究与应用不足的现状、系统时空边界的多样性特点，剖析了多学科交叉与融合研究的具体思路；提出了基于纽带关系的综合性分析指标与计算方法的研究设想；指出了多尺度研究成果耦合应用的必要性和方式。研究可为WEF nexus系统的基础理论与应用实践提供新的视角，为全球与区域可持续发展目标的分析提供思路和方法借鉴。

关键词: 可持续发展, 水—能源—粮食纽带关系, 系统解析, 研究框架, 学科交叉

Abstract:

The securities of water, energy, and food are three sustainable development goals (SDGs) and have close interactions with other SDGs. Based on the recent studies of the theory, methodology, and application of the water-energy-food nexus (WEF nexus) system, this study analyzed the WEF nexus system in terms of its definition and composition, internal interaction processes, inputs and outputs, and influencing factors. In the process of analysis, the characteristics of the spatial and temporal scales of the research object were taken into account, and the inputs and outputs of the WEF nexus system were clarified from the perspective of the material, energy, and information flows. This study also illustrates the positive and negative impacts of climate change on the water, energy, and food subsystems and their interactions, as well as the impacts of human activities on the WEF nexus system. Furthermore, a research framework of the WEF nexus system covering research themes-disciplinary theories-technical methods-practical applications was proposed, according to the interactions of the WEF nexus system and other SDGs. The introduced framework illustrates three research topics: 1) Linkages within the WEF nexus system and the overall state. 2) The drivers of system change. 3) The influences of the system on socioeconomic development, ecological and environmental protection, and so on. At last, this study highlights the urgent need for interdisciplinary analysis of WEF nexus systems due to the insufficient research and application of nexus relationships and the diversity of spatial and temporal boundaries. The research perspectives based on comprehensive analysis indicators and calculation methods of nexus relationships are presented, and the necessity and ways of coupled application of multi-scale research results is introduced. This study provides a new insight into the research on the basic theory and application of the WEF nexus system, as well as some guidance on the analytical ideas and methods of global and regional sustainable development goals.

Key words: sustainable development, water-energy-food nexus, system analysis, research framework, interdisciplinary

郝林钢, 于静洁, 王平, 韩春辉. 面向可持续发展的水—能源—粮食纽带关系系统解析及其研究框架[J]. 地理科学进展, 2023, 42(1): 173-184.

HAO Lingang, YU Jingjie, WANG Ping, HAN Chunhui. Analysis of the water-energy-food nexus system for sustainable development and its research framework[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2023, 42(1): 173-184.

图/表 8

表1

表2

图1

表3

气候变化对水—能源—粮食纽带关系系统的影响

影响对象	正面影响	负面影响
水资源	• 部分地区降水量增加，提高水资源可供给量	• 水温升高和溶解氧减少，降低水体自净能力，影响水质、水资源供给和水生生态系统 • 极端事件增加，洪水或干旱期间污染物的聚集，增加水污染和病原体污染风险 • 影响水资源可利用量及其分布^[23]，增加全球干旱面积
能源	• 北冰洋和西伯利亚及格陵兰等地区的冻土层解冻可能会增加可供开采的石油、天然气资源^[24] • 气候变暖降低供暖能源需要 • 冰川融化提供新的能源贸易路线	• 洪水和风暴等极端事件会破坏化石能源开采、发电厂等能源基础设施 • 寒区多年冻土层解冻会损坏石油和天然气管道 • 气候变暖增加降温的能源需要
粮食	• 高纬度地区，气候变暖增加作物处于温度适宜范围的时间，玉米、小麦和甜菜等作物的产量可能增加 • 气温回暖，作物生长期延长，霜冻时间缩短，大气CO₂浓度升高，提高作物产量^[26]	• 种植业：低纬度地区，气温增加超过作物的温度适应范围，玉米和小麦等作物的产量降低；极端天气频发，增加农作物的气候变化脆弱性，降低农作物的产量和质量^[25] • 畜牧业：温度、降水、大气CO₂浓度等变化会提高越冬期间病原体的成活率，对动物健康、牧草和饲料作物产生不良影响^[26] • 渔业和水产养殖业：深海海洋膨胀、高温和旋风等极端事件影响海洋生态系统，威胁捕捞渔业和水产养殖业
纽带关系	• 水—能源：气温升高可能导致部分地区融雪径流增加，水电潜力增加 • 能源—粮食：部分地区，气候变暖会增加用来发电和其他可替代燃料生产的生物质材料数量 • 水—粮食：干旱地区的气候暖湿化、降水增加，可提高农业水资源供给量	• 水—能源：部分地区，干旱加剧可能降低水电潜力 • 能源—粮食：部分地区，气候变暖会减少用于发电和其他可替代燃料生产的生物质材料数量 • 水—粮食：气温升高，作物和牲畜需水量增加

表3

表4

图2

图3

图4

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类别	空间边界	时间步长	相关文献
产品	生产场地	全生命周期	[20]
家庭	WEF供给与消费的入口和出口	计量周期(日、月、季节等)	[9]
农田	农田边界	生长季节	[10]
流域	流域边界	年/月	[12]
城市	行政边界	年	[14]
国家	国界	年	[21]
区域	地理/政治界限	年	[22]
全球	全球国家/地球系统	年	[17]

层面	水资源与能源	水资源与粮食	能源与粮食
物质层面	化石能源开采、加工与运输过程，发电过程消耗水资源；水资源提取、输送、处理与回用过程消耗能源	作物生长、牲畜生存、食品加工与运输耗水	农业机械、生产要素(化肥、农药等)消耗能源；作物可用作生物质能
管理层面	水电资源的开发利用规划与管理	根据水资源时空分布规律，确定耕种面积和类型	协调资源配置，如生物质能资源开发，有利于能源安全，但会损害粮食安全
技术层面	化石能源开采技术提高，火力发电技术升级可降低水耗	种植模式、灌溉技术、作物类型和品种影响粮食生产的水资源消耗	生物质能利用技术升级，提高单位生物资源的产能量

人类活动类别	正面影响	负面影响
经济发展	提高贫困地区居民水资源、能源、粮食的供给水平	可能导致资源需求增加，供需矛盾加剧。如提高农业为主地区的经济发展，可能会进一步增加农业耗水量；不发达地区的经济发展增加人均水资源、能源、粮食需求
人口增多	增加劳动力、加快能源的开发和粮食的生产，促进WEF nexus向好发展	增加水、能源、粮食需求量
科技进步、管理水平提高	提高水资源和能源的单位使用效率；提高作物产量及其对环境的适应性；降低三者间的互相消耗量	科技进步提高生活水平，可能增加资源需求，造成资源浪费；科技进步和管理水平提高会降低某一领域的资源消耗，但总的消耗量可能不降反升，如灌溉效率悖论
土地利用变化	工业用地的增加会加快工业发展、提高能源利用水平，农业用地的增加会提高粮食生产能力，水域的增加会影响气候变化及水循环系统，有利于优化WEF nexus	城镇化加快，工农业用地增加，水资源和能源需求增加
水资源调度、电力调度工程	优化三者可利用量的空间分布关系	不合理调度导致资源压力转移
国际贸易	提高全球综合效益	导致三者在发达地区集聚，加剧欠发达地区资源压力

面向可持续发展的水—能源—粮食纽带关系系统解析及其研究框架

Analysis of the water-energy-food nexus system for sustainable development and its research framework

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