行政边界对城市群交界地区土地利用变化的影响——以通州—武清—廊坊地区为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

由于各地资源禀赋差异和各级政府之间的复杂关系，城市群交界地区不可避免地存在经济社会发展上的矛盾和不平衡。已有研究揭示了行政边界效应在省域、城市群等不同尺度均普遍存在，且在不同阶段影响土地利用变化的程度大小不一，但多将行政边界转化为虚拟变量而非空间地理要素，不足以理解中微观尺度各种因素之间的复杂相互作用。论文旨在利用1985—2020年的中国年度土地覆盖数据集，以区县为单元，运用质心迁移、核密度分析和Logistic回归方法，分析京津冀典型城市群交界地区“通州—武清—廊坊(通武廊)地区”不透水面(ISA)的扩张机理并测度行政边界效应的影响。结果显示：① 不同行政区因资源禀赋和所处发展阶段的不同，城市用地扩张的速度和主要时期存在一定的差异；② 由于要素的高度流动，地理邻近的行政区城市扩张驱动要素表现出一定的相似性；③ 在不同区域分工水平下，行政界线的边界效应对城市用地扩张的影响表现出一定差异性。通过“强—弱”管控提高通武廊地区各要素协调水平，减少行政边界对地方之间资源整合的负面影响，对于实现京津冀城市群协同发展具有重要作用。

关键词: 城市扩张, 边界效应, 驱动要素, 跨区管控, 京津冀城市群

Abstract:

Due to the differences in resource endowments and the complex relationship between governments at all levels, there are inevitable conflicts and imbalances in socialeco development in the cross-boundary regions of urban agglomerations. Scholars have revealed that the administrative boundary effect is common in different scales such as provincial and urban agglomeration, and its influence on land use change varies in different development stages. However, previous studies have mostly transformed administrative boundaries into virtual variables rather than as spatial geographical elements, which is insufficient for understanding the complex interactions between various factors at the meso and micro scales. This study analyzed the expansion mechanism of impervious surface area (ISA) in Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang (TWL)—a typical cross-boundary region of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration—by using China's Land-Use/Cover Datasets from 1985 to 2020. Taking districts and counties as the units of analysis, we used centroid migration, kernel density analysis, and Logistic regression methods to measure the impact of administrative boundaries. The results show that: 1) The speed and main period of urban land expansion in different administrative regions varied due to different resource endowments and development stages. 2) Due to the high mobility of factors, the driving forces of urban expansion in geographically adjacent administrative regions showed some similarities. 3) Under different levels of regional collaboration, the influence of the administrative boundaries on urban land expansion also varied. Improving the coordination level of various elements in the TWL area through "strong-weak" control and reducing the negative impact of administrative boundaries on local resource integration play an important role in realizing the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

Key words: urban expansion, boundary effect, driving force, interregional regulation, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

詹子歆, 戴林琳. 行政边界对城市群交界地区土地利用变化的影响——以通州—武清—廊坊地区为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(12): 2271-2285.

ZHAN Zixin, DAI Linlin. Influence of administrative boundary on land use change in the cross-boundary area of urban agglomerations: A case study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(12): 2271-2285.

图/表 8

图1

图2

表1

图3

图4

表2

表3

图5

参考文献 61

[1]	郑艳婷. 中国城市群的空间模式: 分散性区域集聚的理论背景、形成机理及最新进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(2): 339-352. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.02.014
	[ Zheng Yanting. Spatial pattern of China's urban agglomerations: Theoretical background, formation mechanisms, and latest progress of research of dispersed regional concentration. Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(2): 339-352. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.02.014
[2]	方创琳. 新发展格局下的中国城市群与都市圈建设[J]. 经济地理, 2021, 41(4): 1-7.
	[ Fang Chuanglin. China's urban agglomeration and metropolitan area construction under the new development pattern. Economic Geography, 2021, 41(4): 1-7. ] doi: 10.2307/141854
[3]	方创琳. 京津冀城市群协同发展的理论基础与规律性分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(1): 15-24. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.002
	[ Fang Chuanglin. Theoretical foundation and patterns of coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban agglomeration. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36(1): 15-24. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.01.002
[4]	Chen L, Xu L Y, Yang Z F. Inequality of industrial carbon emissions of the urban agglomeration and its peripheral cities: A case in the Pearl River Delta, China[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2019, 109: 438-447.
[5]	Vicuna M, Orellana A, Truffello R, et al. Urban integration and quality of urban life: Dilemmas in metropolitan contexts[J]. Revista INVI, 2019, 34: 17-47. doi: 10.4067/S0718-83582019000300017
[6]	郭庆宾, 骆康, 刘承良. 长江经济带城市群要素集聚能力差异的比较研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(4): 542-552. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.002
	[ Guo Qingbin, Luo Kang, Liu Chengliang. A comparative study on the differences of factors aggregating ability among urban agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(4): 542-552. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.002
[7]	Bao W K, Yang Y Y, Zou L L. How to reconcile land use conflicts in mega urban agglomeration? A scenario-based study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2021, 296: 113168. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113168. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113168
[8]	Ma W Q, Jiang G H, Chen Y H, et al. How feasible is regional integration for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface? Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region in China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2020, 92: 104433. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104433. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104433
[9]	孙阳, 姚士谋, 张落成. 长三角城市群“空间流”层级功能结构: 基于高铁客运数据的分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(11): 1381-1387. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.008
	[ Sun Yang, Yao Shimou, Zhang Luocheng. Functional structure of spatial flow in the Yangtze River Delta: Analysis of passenger based data for the high speed railway. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(11): 1381-1387. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2016.11.008
[10]	Bittencourt T A, Mariana G, Eduardo M. Cumulative (and self-reinforcing) spatial inequalities: Interactions between accessibility and segregation in four Brazilian metropolises[J]. Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science, 2021, 48(7): 1989-2005. doi: 10.1177/2399808320958426
[11]	Musterd S, Hochstenbach C, Boterman W. Ripples of structural economic transformation: The changing social geographies of Dutch metropolitan regions[J]. Applied Geography, 2020, 116: 102151. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102151. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102151
[12]	王桀, 张琴悦. 边界效应概念再议及其在旅游研究中的应用与发展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(5): 905-921. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.05.013
	[ Wang Jie, Zhang Qinyue. Revisiting the concept of border effect and its application and development in tourism research. Progress in Geography, 2022, 41(5): 905-921. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.05.013
[13]	Gong J Z, Hu Z R, Chen W L, et al. Urban expansion dynamics and modes in metropolitan Guangzhou, China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2018, 72: 100-109. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.025
[14]	Pan H Y, Tong X H, Xu X, et al. Updating of land cover maps and change analysis using Globeland30 product: A case study in Shanghai Metropolitan Area, China[J]. Remote Sensing, 2020, 12(19): 3147. doi: 10.3390/rs12193147. doi: 10.3390/rs12193147
[15]	Kuang W H, Chi W F, Lu D S, et al. A comparative analysis of megacity expansions in China and the US: Patterns, rates and driving forces[J]. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2014, 132: 121-135. doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.08.015
[16]	刘美, 杜国明, 于凤荣, 等. 哈尔滨城乡梯度建设用地结构变化及不透水面遥感监测分析[J]. 遥感技术与应用, 2020, 35(5): 1206-1217.
	[ Liu Mei, Du Guoming, Yu Fengrong, et al. Remote sensing monitoring and analysis of urban-rural gradient construction land and impervious surface in Harbin. Remote Sensing Technology and Application, 2020, 35(5): 1206-1217. ]
[17]	余斌, 刘明华, 朱丽霞, 等. 城市群的边界效应与边界地区发展[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(6): 666-672. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.06.666
	[ Yu Bin, Liu Minghua, Zhu Lixia, et al. The border effect and the development of border region between conurbations. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(6): 666-672. ] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.06.666
[18]	任以胜, 陆林, 朱道才. 区域协调发展战略下的行政边界研究框架[J]. 经济地理, 2019, 39(3): 29-36, 47.
	[ Ren Yisheng, Lu Lin, Zhu Daocai. The research framework of administrative border under the regional coordinated development strategy. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(3): 29-36, 47. ]
[19]	王成龙, 刘慧, 张梦天. 基于结构方程模型的京津冀城市用地行政边界效应分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2016, 31(7): 1127-1137.
	[ Wang Chenglong, Liu Hui, Zhang Mengtian. The analysis of border effect of urban land based on structural equation modeling: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(7): 1127-1137. ]
[20]	任以胜, 陆林, 虞虎. 新安江流域行政区经济非均衡性的行政边界效应[J]. 经济地理, 2020, 40(9): 46-52.
	[ Ren Yisheng, Lu Lin, Yu Hu. Administrative border effect of economy non-equilibrium in the Xin'an River Basin. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(9): 46-52. ] doi: 10.2307/142173
[21]	曾冰. 边界效应与省际边界区经济发展: 基于新经济地理视角[J]. 财经科学, 2015(9): 87-97.
	[ Zeng Bing. Border effect and economic development of the provincial border region: From the prospective of new economic geography. Finance & Economics, 2015(9): 87-97. ]
[22]	Castanho R A. The relevance of political engagement and transparency in cross-border cooperation (CBC) environments: Analyzing border cities in Europe[J]. Lex Localis: Journal of Local Self-Government, 2020, 18(3): 487-502. doi: 10.4335/18.3.487-502(2020)
[23]	Oliveras González X. Iniciativas de planificación territorial transfronteriza en Matamoros-Brownsville (México-Estados Unidos)[J]. Investigaciones Geográficas, 2016, 89: 154-167.
[24]	朱惠斌. 联合跨界合作演进特征及驱动机制研究[J]. 人文地理, 2014, 29(2): 90-95.
	[ Zhu Huibin. Cross-border cooperation evolution feature and driving mechanism research. Human Geography, 2014, 29(2): 90-95. ]
[25]	刘浩, 马琳. 京津冀交界地区的空间管控分析[J]. 地域研究与开发, 2020, 39(3): 36-40.
	[ Liu Hao, Ma Lin. Space governances in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei border region. Areal Research and Development, 2020, 39(3): 36-40. ]
[26]	叶超, 赵江南, 张清源, 等. 跨界治理的理论重构: 以长江三角洲地区为例[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(3): 363-372. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.03.001
	[ Ye Chao, Zhao Jiangnan, Zhang Qingyuan, et al. Reconstructing the theory of cross-border governance: Taking the Yangtze River Delta as a case. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2022, 42(3): 363-372. ] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.03.001
[27]	Röder A, Pröpper M, Stellmes M, et al. Assessing urban growth and rural land use transformations in a cross-border situation in Northern Namibia and Southern Angola[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015, 42: 340-354. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.08.008
[28]	Zhao C H, Jensen J, Zhan B. A comparison of urban growth and their influencing factors of two border cities: Laredo in the US and Nuevo Laredo in Mexico[J]. Applied Geography, 2017, 79: 223-234. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.12.017
[29]	Hampton M P. Enclaves and ethnic ties: The local impacts of Singaporean cross-border tourism in Malaysia and Indonesia[J]. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, 2010, 31(2): 239-253. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9493.2010.00393.x
[30]	Idler A, Hochmüller M. Covid-19 in Colombia's borderlands and the western hemisphere: Adding instability to a double crisis[J]. Journal of Latin American Geography, 2020, 19(3): 280-288.
[31]	孙久文, 王邹. 新时期京津冀协同发展的现状、难点与路径[J]. 河北学刊, 2022, 42(3): 142-151.
	[ Sun Jiuwen, Wang Zou. Current situation, difficulties and path of coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in the new era. Hebei Academic Journal, 2022, 42(3): 142-151. ]
[32]	谢中起, 臧红松, 彭建交. 京津冀交界地区环境治理难题与对策[J]. 生态经济, 2017, 33(4): 149-153.
	[ Xie Zhongqi, Zang Hongsong, Peng Jianjiao. Environmental governance posers and countermeasures on cross border regions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Ecological Economy, 2017, 33(4): 149-153. ]
[33]	李国平, 宋昌耀. 京津冀交界地区跨区管控研究: 以通州—武清—廊坊北三县为例[J]. 区域经济评论, 2017(1): 52-59, 2.
	[ Li Guoping, Song Changyao. Research on interregional regulation in the border of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region: A case study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang. Regional Economic Review, 2017(1): 52-59, 2. ]
[34]	Dai L L, Zhan Z X, Shu Y S, et al. Land use change in the cross-boundary regions of a metropolitan area: A case study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang[J]. Land, 2022, 11(2): 153. doi: 10.3390/land11020153. doi: 10.3390/land11020153
[35]	胡一凡. 京津冀大气污染协同治理困境与消解: 关系网络、行动策略、治理结构[J]. 大连理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 41(2): 48-56.
	[ Hu Yifan. Difficulties of air pollution cooperative governance in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the solution paths: Relation network, action strategy and governance structure. Journal of Dalian University of Technology (Social Sciences), 2020, 41(2): 48-56. ]
[36]	焦利民, 李泽慧, 许刚, 等. 武汉市城市空间集聚要素的分布特征与模式[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(8): 1432-1443. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201708008
	[ Jiao Limin, Li Zehui, Xu Gang, et al. The characteristics and patterns of spatially aggregated elements in urban areas of Wuhan. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(8): 1432-1443. ] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201708008
[37]	黄春华, 吕靖童, 王志远, 等. 洞庭湖生态经济区城乡建设用地演变特征及驱动因素[J]. 科学技术与工程, 2021, 21(33): 14062-14073.
	[ Huang Chunhua, Lv Jingtong, Wang Zhiyuan, et al. Characteristics and driving factors of urban and rural construction land in Dongting Lake eco-economic zone. Science Technology and Engineering, 2021, 21(33): 14062-14073. ]
[38]	周素红, 吴智刚. 快速城市化地区跨行政边界的城市增长模式探析[J]. 城市发展研究, 2009, 16(6): 53-58.
	[ Zhou Suhong, Wu Zhigang. Study on models for urban growth in the inter-border administrative area association with acceleration of urbanization. Urban Development Studies, 2009, 16(6): 53-58. ]
[39]	劳洁英, 王成, 王金亮, 等. 1986—2018年广州市建设用地扩张及其影响因素研究[J]. 测绘科学, 2021, 46(9): 199-206, 223.
	[ Lao Jieying, Wang Cheng, Wang Jinliang, et al. Study on construction land expansion and its impacting factors in Guangzhou during 1986-2018. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 2021, 46(9): 199-206, 223. ]
[40]	厉静文, 董锁成, 李宇, 等. 中蒙俄经济走廊土地利用变化格局及其驱动因素研究[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(11): 3073-3091. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210860
	[ Li Jingwen, Dong Suocheng, Li Yu, et al. The pattern and driving factors of land use change in the China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(11): 3073-3091. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210860
[41]	夏方舟, 李洋宇, 严金明. 产业结构视角下土地财政对经济增长的作用机制: 基于城市动态面板数据的系统GMM分析[J]. 经济地理, 2014, 34(12): 85-92.
	[ Xia Fangzhou, Li Yangyu, Yan Jinming. The relationship between land finance and economic growth under the industrial structure perspective: Based on dynamic panel data analysis with SYS-GMM methods. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(12): 85-92. ]
[42]	郭志勇, 顾乃华. 制度变迁、土地财政与外延式城市扩张: 一个解释我国城市化和产业结构虚高现象的新视角[J]. 社会科学研究, 2013(1): 8-14.
	[ Guo Zhiyong, Gu Naihua. Institutional change, land finance and extended urban expansion: A new perspective to explain the phenomenon of China's urbanization and the inflated industrial structure. Social Science Research, 2013(1): 8-14. ]
[43]	徐博, 王珺卓. 地方政府收入结构变化对土地利用行为的影响研究[J]. 中国土地科学, 2009, 23(9): 15-19.
	[ Xu Bo, Wang Junzhuo. Local government revenue structure changes and their influences on land-use behavior. China Land Science, 2009, 23(9): 15-19. ]
[44]	乔伟峰, 吴菊, 戈大专, 等. 快速城市化地区土地利用规划管控建设用地扩张成效评估: 以南京市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(11): 2666-2680. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180713
	[ Qiao Weifeng, Wu Ju, Ge Dazhuan, et al. Evaluating the controlling effectiveness of land-use planning on construction land expansion under the rapid urbanization: A case study of Nanjing City. Geographical Research, 2019, 38(11): 2666-2680. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020180713
[45]	董黎明, 林坚. 土地利用总体规划的思考与探索[M]. 北京: 中国建筑工业出版社, 2010.
	[ Dong Liming, Lin Jian. Thinking and exploring of integrated land-use planning. Beijing, China: China Architecture & Building Press, 2010. ]
[46]	刘桃菊, 陈美球. 中国耕地保护制度执行力现状及其提升路径[J]. 中国土地科学, 2020, 34(9): 32-37, 47.
	[ Liu Taoju, Chen Meiqiu. The status-quo and improvement path for the implementation of cultivated land protection policy in China. China Land Science, 2020, 34(9): 32-37, 47. ]
[47]	王艳松, 桑玲玲, 章远钰. 我国耕地保护责任考核制度的发展与完善[J]. 中国土地, 2020(11): 24-25.
	[ Wang Yansong, Sang Lingling, Zhang Yuanyu. Development and improvement of assessment system of cultivated land protection responsibility in China. China Land, 2020(11): 24-25. ]
[48]	刘秀杰, 万成伟, 叶裕民. 京津冀协同发展的制度困境与对策建议: 以通州与北三县协同发展为例[J]. 城市发展研究, 2019, 26(11): 5-10.
	[ Liu Xiujie, Wan Chengwei, Ye Yumin. The institutional dilemma and countermeasures for the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei: A case study of the coordinated development of Tongzhou District and three northern counties of Langfang. Urban Development Studies, 2019, 26(11): 5-10. ]
[49]	楼梦醒, 冯长春. 京津冀地区城市建设用地变化及差异化驱动力研究[J]. 城市发展研究, 2018, 25(9): 23-28, 41.
	[ Lou Mengxing, Feng Changchun. Study on the change of urban construction land and the different driving force in Beijing-Tianjin-and Hebei region. Urban Development Studies, 2018, 25(9): 23-28, 41. ]
[50]	李孝永, 匡文慧. 京津冀1980—2015年城市土地利用变化时空轨迹及未来情景模拟[J]. 经济地理, 2019, 39(3): 187-194, 200.
	[ Li Xiaoyong, Kuang Wenhui. Spatio-temporal trajectories of urban land use change during 1980-2015 and future scenario simulation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(3): 187-194, 200. ]
[51]	闫东升, 孙伟, 王玥, 等. 长江三角洲人口分布演变、偏移增长及影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(12): 2068-2082. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.12.009
	[ Yan Dongsheng, Sun Wei, Wang Yue, et al. Change in distribution and growth shifts of population in the Yangtze River Delta and influencing factors. Progress in Geography, 2020, 39(12): 2068-2082. ] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.12.009
[52]	陈哲, 欧名豪, 李彦. 现行政管理体制下的“两规”衔接[J]. 城市问题, 2010(11): 76-81.
	[ Chen Zhe, Ou Minghao, Li Yan. Connection between "Two-Planning" in the context of current administration system. Urban Problems, 2010(11): 76-81. ]
[53]	朱红波. 建设用地指标分配的博弈分析[J]. 国土资源, 2005(5): 34-35.
	[ Zhu Hongbo. Game analysis of index allocation of construction land. Land & Resources, 2005(5): 34-35. ]
[54]	王雨, 张京祥. 区域经济一体化的机制与效应: 基于制度距离的空间发展解释[J]. 经济地理, 2022, 42(1): 28-36.
	[ Wang Yu, Zhang Jingxiang. The mechanism and effect of regional integration: An explanation of spatial development based on institutional distance. Economic Geography, 2022, 42(1): 28-36. ]
[55]	王成龙, 刘慧, 张梦天. 行政边界对城市群城市用地空间扩张的影响: 基于京津冀城市群的实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(1): 173-183. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201601015
	[ Wang Chenglong, Liu Hui, Zhang Mengtian. The influence of administrative boundary on the spatial expansion of urban land: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(1): 173-183. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201601015
[56]	邓羽. 城市空间扩展的自组织特征与规划管控效应评估: 以北京市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(2): 353-362. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201602012
	[ Deng Yu. Self-organization characteristics of urban extension and the planning effect evaluation: A case study of Beijing. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(2): 353-362. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201602012
[57]	Leck H, Simon D. Local authority responses to climate change in South Africa: The challenges of transboundary governance[J]. Sustainability, 2018, 10(7): 5242. doi: 10.3390/su10072542. doi: 10.3390/su10072542
[58]	刘浩, 马琳, 谭金欣, 等. 区域协同发展进程中的跨区空间管控问题[J]. 管理现代化, 2019, 39(4): 87-90.
	[ Liu Hao, Ma Lin, Tan Jinxin, et al. Interregional space governance in China's coordinated development process. Modernization of Management, 2019, 39(4): 87-90. ]
[59]	张颖诗, 冯艳芬, 郭冠华, 等. 近30年中国典型城市群建设用地扩张的时空特征及其对比: 以京津冀城市群和粤港澳大湾区为例[J]. 华南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 54(1): 79-90.
	[ Zhang Yingshi, Feng Yanfen, Guo Guanhua, et al. The spatio-temporal characteristics of construction land expansion in China's typical urban agglomerations in recent 30 years: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban agglomeration and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area. Journal of South China Normal University (Natural Science Edition), 2022, 54(1): 79-90. ]
[60]	廖谌婳, 封志明, 李鹏, 等. 中老缅泰交界地区土地利用变化信息挖掘与国别对比[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(11): 1785-1797.
	[ Liao Chenhua, Feng Zhiming, Li Peng, et al. Information detecting and inter-national comparison of land use changes in the border region of China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand. Journal of Natural Resources, 2015, 30(11): 1785-1797. ]
[61]	李宇, 孟丹, 叶海鹏, 等. 俄罗斯典型城市扩张时空格局与驱动机制: 基于遥感决策融合与多元离散回归模型[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(11): 2967-2985. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210115
	[ Li Yu, Meng Dan, Ye Haipeng, et al. Spatiotemporal pattern and driving forces of typical Russian cities: Based on remote sensing decision fusion and multiple discrete regression model. Geographical Research, 2021, 40(11): 2967-2985. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210115

时段	基期年面积/km²	目标年面积/km²	扩张规模/km²	扩张速度/(km²/a)	扩张强度/%
1985—1990年	1081.95	1205.92	123.96	24.79	2.29
1990—1995年	1205.92	1407.24	201.32	40.26	3.34
1995—2000年	1407.24	1634.90	227.66	45.53	3.24
2000—2005年	1634.90	1816.22	181.32	36.26	2.22
2005—2010年	1816.22	2079.43	263.21	52.64	2.90
2010—2015年	2079.43	2456.59	377.16	75.43	3.63
2015—2020年	2456.59	2611.62	155.03	31.01	1.26

因子编号	变量	回归系数	标准误差	Wald	显著性	OR值
X₁	距行政边界距离	0.002	0.001	18.197	<0.0001	1.002
X₂	灯光指数	0.074	0.001	3259.540	<0.0001	1.076
X₃	人口密度	0.003	0.001	19.142	<0.0001	1.003
X₄	非农产业占比	0.806	0.147	30.051	<0.0001	2.238
X₅	一般财政预算支出	-0.001	0.000	78.209	<0.0001	0.999
X₆	距公路距离	-0.278	0.009	888.837	<0.0001	0.757
X₇	距铁路距离	0.007	0.001	25.383	<0.0001	1.007
X₈	距水系距离	-0.040	0.004	86.283	<0.0001	0.960
	常量	-2.282	0.143	253.273	<0.0001	0.102

地区	变量	回归系数	标准误差	Wald	显著性	OR值
通州区	距行政边界距离	0.054	0.004	168.271	<0.0001	1.055
	灯光指数	0.038	0.002	324.012	<0.0001	1.039
	人口密度	0.000	0.001	0.202	0.653	1.000
	距公路距离	-0.347	0.050	47.850	<0.0001	0.707
	距铁路距离	-0.019	0.007	7.274	0.007	0.982
	距水系距离	0.023	0.028	0.670	0.413	1.024
	常量	-1.600	0.076	443.441	<0.0001	0.202
武清区	距行政边界距离	0.013	0.003	16.201	<0.0001	1.013
	灯光指数	0.123	0.004	1065.399	<0.0001	1.131
	人口密度	-0.005	0.002	8.461	0.004	0.995
	距公路距离	-0.280	0.036	60.926	<0.0001	0.756
	距铁路距离	-0.025	0.007	14.033	<0.0001	0.976
	距水系距离	0.103	0.027	14.595	<0.0001	1.109
	常量	-2.285	0.069	1090.293	<0.0001	0.102
廊坊市 (除北三县)	距行政边界距离	-0.002	0.001	13.530	<0.0001	0.998
	灯光指数	0.064	0.002	859.938	<0.0001	1.066
	人口密度	0.013	0.001	79.975	<0.0001	1.013
	距公路距离	-0.273	0.011	633.278	<0.0001	0.761
	距铁路距离	0.020	0.002	118.661	<0.0001	1.020
	距水系距离	-0.070	0.005	224.457	<0.0001	0.932
	常量	-1.480	0.036	1648.112	<0.0001	0.228
廊坊市北三县	距行政边界距离	-0.008	0.003	5.132	0.023	0.992
	灯光指数	0.080	0.004	398.174	<0.0001	1.084
	人口密度	0.006	0.002	12.242	<0.0001	1.006
	距公路距离	-0.404	0.026	233.257	<0.0001	0.667
	距铁路距离	-0.026	0.004	45.615	<0.0001	0.974
	距水系距离	0.020	0.014	1.989	0.158	1.020
	常量	-1.149	0.093	151.996	<0.0001	0.317