地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 2271-2285.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.007
收稿日期:
2022-05-09
修回日期:
2022-07-21
出版日期:
2022-12-28
发布日期:
2022-12-31
通讯作者:
*戴林琳(1981— ),女,江苏淮安人,博士,副教授,主要从事城乡可持续发展、国土空间规划研究。E-mail: linlindai@pku.edu.cn作者简介:
詹子歆(1998— ),男,浙江台州人,硕士生,主要从事城市与区域规划、国土空间规划研究。E-mail: zhanzixin@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2022-05-09
Revised:
2022-07-21
Online:
2022-12-28
Published:
2022-12-31
Supported by:
摘要:
由于各地资源禀赋差异和各级政府之间的复杂关系,城市群交界地区不可避免地存在经济社会发展上的矛盾和不平衡。已有研究揭示了行政边界效应在省域、城市群等不同尺度均普遍存在,且在不同阶段影响土地利用变化的程度大小不一,但多将行政边界转化为虚拟变量而非空间地理要素,不足以理解中微观尺度各种因素之间的复杂相互作用。论文旨在利用1985—2020年的中国年度土地覆盖数据集,以区县为单元,运用质心迁移、核密度分析和Logistic回归方法,分析京津冀典型城市群交界地区“通州—武清—廊坊(通武廊)地区”不透水面(ISA)的扩张机理并测度行政边界效应的影响。结果显示:① 不同行政区因资源禀赋和所处发展阶段的不同,城市用地扩张的速度和主要时期存在一定的差异;② 由于要素的高度流动,地理邻近的行政区城市扩张驱动要素表现出一定的相似性;③ 在不同区域分工水平下,行政界线的边界效应对城市用地扩张的影响表现出一定差异性。通过“强—弱”管控提高通武廊地区各要素协调水平,减少行政边界对地方之间资源整合的负面影响,对于实现京津冀城市群协同发展具有重要作用。
詹子歆, 戴林琳. 行政边界对城市群交界地区土地利用变化的影响——以通州—武清—廊坊地区为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(12): 2271-2285.
ZHAN Zixin, DAI Linlin. Influence of administrative boundary on land use change in the cross-boundary area of urban agglomerations: A case study of Tongzhou-Wuqing-Langfang[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(12): 2271-2285.
表1
1985—2020年通武廊地区城市ISA扩张
时段 | 基期年面积/km2 | 目标年面积/km2 | 扩张规模/km2 | 扩张速度/(km2/a) | 扩张强度/% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1985—1990年 | 1081.95 | 1205.92 | 123.96 | 24.79 | 2.29 |
1990—1995年 | 1205.92 | 1407.24 | 201.32 | 40.26 | 3.34 |
1995—2000年 | 1407.24 | 1634.90 | 227.66 | 45.53 | 3.24 |
2000—2005年 | 1634.90 | 1816.22 | 181.32 | 36.26 | 2.22 |
2005—2010年 | 1816.22 | 2079.43 | 263.21 | 52.64 | 2.90 |
2010—2015年 | 2079.43 | 2456.59 | 377.16 | 75.43 | 3.63 |
2015—2020年 | 2456.59 | 2611.62 | 155.03 | 31.01 | 1.26 |
表2
通武廊地区全域驱动因素Logistic回归结果
因子编号 | 变量 | 回归系数 | 标准误差 | Wald | 显著性 | OR值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X1 | 距行政边界距离 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 18.197 | <0.0001 | 1.002 |
X2 | 灯光指数 | 0.074 | 0.001 | 3259.540 | <0.0001 | 1.076 |
X3 | 人口密度 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 19.142 | <0.0001 | 1.003 |
X4 | 非农产业占比 | 0.806 | 0.147 | 30.051 | <0.0001 | 2.238 |
X5 | 一般财政预算支出 | -0.001 | 0.000 | 78.209 | <0.0001 | 0.999 |
X6 | 距公路距离 | -0.278 | 0.009 | 888.837 | <0.0001 | 0.757 |
X7 | 距铁路距离 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 25.383 | <0.0001 | 1.007 |
X8 | 距水系距离 | -0.040 | 0.004 | 86.283 | <0.0001 | 0.960 |
常量 | -2.282 | 0.143 | 253.273 | <0.0001 | 0.102 |
表3
通州、武清、廊坊驱动因素Logistic回归结果
地区 | 变量 | 回归系数 | 标准误差 | Wald | 显著性 | OR值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
通州区 | 距行政边界距离 | 0.054 | 0.004 | 168.271 | <0.0001 | 1.055 |
灯光指数 | 0.038 | 0.002 | 324.012 | <0.0001 | 1.039 | |
人口密度 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.202 | 0.653 | 1.000 | |
距公路距离 | -0.347 | 0.050 | 47.850 | <0.0001 | 0.707 | |
距铁路距离 | -0.019 | 0.007 | 7.274 | 0.007 | 0.982 | |
距水系距离 | 0.023 | 0.028 | 0.670 | 0.413 | 1.024 | |
常量 | -1.600 | 0.076 | 443.441 | <0.0001 | 0.202 | |
武清区 | 距行政边界距离 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 16.201 | <0.0001 | 1.013 |
灯光指数 | 0.123 | 0.004 | 1065.399 | <0.0001 | 1.131 | |
人口密度 | -0.005 | 0.002 | 8.461 | 0.004 | 0.995 | |
距公路距离 | -0.280 | 0.036 | 60.926 | <0.0001 | 0.756 | |
距铁路距离 | -0.025 | 0.007 | 14.033 | <0.0001 | 0.976 | |
距水系距离 | 0.103 | 0.027 | 14.595 | <0.0001 | 1.109 | |
常量 | -2.285 | 0.069 | 1090.293 | <0.0001 | 0.102 | |
廊坊市 (除北三县) | 距行政边界距离 | -0.002 | 0.001 | 13.530 | <0.0001 | 0.998 |
灯光指数 | 0.064 | 0.002 | 859.938 | <0.0001 | 1.066 | |
人口密度 | 0.013 | 0.001 | 79.975 | <0.0001 | 1.013 | |
距公路距离 | -0.273 | 0.011 | 633.278 | <0.0001 | 0.761 | |
距铁路距离 | 0.020 | 0.002 | 118.661 | <0.0001 | 1.020 | |
距水系距离 | -0.070 | 0.005 | 224.457 | <0.0001 | 0.932 | |
常量 | -1.480 | 0.036 | 1648.112 | <0.0001 | 0.228 | |
廊坊市 北三县 | 距行政边界距离 | -0.008 | 0.003 | 5.132 | 0.023 | 0.992 |
灯光指数 | 0.080 | 0.004 | 398.174 | <0.0001 | 1.084 | |
人口密度 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 12.242 | <0.0001 | 1.006 | |
距公路距离 | -0.404 | 0.026 | 233.257 | <0.0001 | 0.667 | |
距铁路距离 | -0.026 | 0.004 | 45.615 | <0.0001 | 0.974 | |
距水系距离 | 0.020 | 0.014 | 1.989 | 0.158 | 1.020 | |
常量 | -1.149 | 0.093 | 151.996 | <0.0001 | 0.317 |
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