城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.006

地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 2258-2270.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.006

城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例

徐少杰¹^,²(), 王开泳¹, 王甫园¹^,^*(), 赵彪³

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
3.中国社会科学院中国边疆研究所，北京 100101

收稿日期:2021-11-19 修回日期:2022-10-08 出版日期:2022-12-28 发布日期:2022-12-31
通讯作者: *王甫园(1988— )，男，湖南新化人，副研究员，主要研究方向为区域发展与旅游地理。 E-mail: wangfy@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:徐少杰(1997— )，男，河南南阳人，博士生，主要研究方向为行政区划与城市地理。E-mail: xusj.19s@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41771173);国家自然科学基金项目(41901181);国家自然科学基金项目(42230510);国家社科基金社科学术社团主题学术活动资助项目(22STA021)

Economic effects evaluation and mechanism analysis of urban administrative center relocation: A case study of Qingdao City

XU Shaojie¹^,²(), WANG Kaiyong¹, WANG Fuyuan¹^,^*(), ZHAO Biao³

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Institute of Chinese Borderland Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2021-11-19 Revised:2022-10-08 Online:2022-12-28 Published:2022-12-31
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771173);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901181);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230510);National Social Science Foundation for Social Science Academic Societies Theme-based Academic Activities Funding Project(22STA021)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市行政中心迁移是地方政府进行空间治理的重要手段，对城市经济发展具有深远的影响。论文以青岛市为案例，选取1988—2010年城市面板数据，采用合成控制法探究城市行政中心迁移的经济效应并分析背后的作用机制。结果表明：① 城市行政中心迁移可以提高以GDP对数值为衡量单位的城市经济效益，但经济增长效应具有滞后性；② 青岛城市行政中心迁移后，城市经济在短期内仍有惯性表现，城市行政中心迁移的经济增长效应在政策实施的第6年开始显现，整个城市的经济发展阶段可分为投资建设、缓慢增长、快速增长和趋于稳定4个阶段；③ 青岛城市行政中心迁移所带来的经济增长效应可以从政府引导效应、投资驱动效应和要素驱动效应3个方面去理解。研究不仅证明了城市行政中心迁移对城市经济的促进效应，也为地方政府评估行政中心迁移方案提供了重要参考。

关键词: 行政中心迁移, 经济效应, 合成控制法, 行政区划调整, 青岛

Abstract:

Urban administrative center relocation is an important means for local governments to carry out spatial governance. Scientifically based and well-planned urban administrative center relocation has a profound impact on urban economic growth. Taking Qingdao City as a case, this study used the urban panel data from 1988 to 2010 and the synthetic control method to explore the economic effect of urban administrative center relocation and analyze the underlying mechanism. The results show that: 1) The relocation of urban administrative center can improve urban economic performance measured by the logarithm of GDP, but the economic growth effect is lagged. 2) After the relocation of Qingdao's urban administrative center, the urban economic performance showed inertia in the short term. The economic growth effect of the relocation of urban administrative center began to appear in the sixth year of the implementation of the policy. The economic development of the whole city can be divided into four stages: investment and construction, slow growth, rapid growth, and stabilization. 3) The economic growth effect brought by the relocation of Qingdao's urban administrative center can be understood from three aspects: government-led effect, investment-driven effect, and factor-driven effect. This study not only proves the promotion effect of urban administrative center relocation on urban economy, but also provides an important reference for local governments to evaluate the relocation scheme of administrative centers.

Key words: relocation of administrative center, economic effect, synthetic control method, administrative division adjustment, Qingdao City

徐少杰, 王开泳, 王甫园, 赵彪. 城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(12): 2258-2270.

XU Shaojie, WANG Kaiyong, WANG Fuyuan, ZHAO Biao. Economic effects evaluation and mechanism analysis of urban administrative center relocation: A case study of Qingdao City[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(12): 2258-2270.

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变量	真实青岛	合成青岛	差距
PFAI	0.1749	0.1947	0.0198
PTCG	0.4170	0.4893	0.0723
PAFC	0.0337	0.0395	0.0058
PLFR	0.1304	0.1302	-0.0002
PNCS	0.0030	0.0092	0.0062
ln GDP (1988)	14.1701	14.1673	-0.0028
ln GDP (1989)	14.2568	14.2601	0.0033
ln GDP (1990)	14.3357	14.3358	0.0001
ln GDP (1991)	14.4838	14.4829	-0.0009
ln GDP (1992)	14.7324	14.7324	0
ln GDP (1993)	15.2372	15.2368	-0.0004

变量	系数	标准差	t值	P值
x₁	1.223	0.467	2.62	0.031
x₂	1.057	0.909	1.16	0.278
x₃	1.009	0.297	3.40	0.009
x₄	1.343	0.288	4.67	0.002
x₅	-0.639	0.155	-4.12	0.003
x₆	1.129	0.196	5.76	<0.001
x₇	-3.860	1.101	-3.51	0.008
x₈	2.382	0.493	4.83	0.001
常数	1.394	0.486	2.87	0.021
R²	0.977		Prob > F

城市行政中心迁移的经济效应评估与作用机制分析——以青岛市为例

Economic effects evaluation and mechanism analysis of urban administrative center relocation: A case study of Qingdao City

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