“双碳”目标下长江中游城市群生态福利绩效演变及驱动机制研究

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.004

地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (12): 2231-2243.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.12.004

“双碳”目标下长江中游城市群生态福利绩效演变及驱动机制研究

朱媛媛¹^,²(), 张瑞¹^,², 顾江³, 高喆¹^,²^,^*()

1.华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室，武汉 430079
2.湖北省发展和改革委员会/华中师范大学武汉城市圈研究院，武汉 430079
3.商务印书馆有限公司，北京 100710

收稿日期:2022-05-28 修回日期:2022-07-19 出版日期:2022-12-28 发布日期:2022-12-31
通讯作者: *高喆(1985— )，男，湖北武汉人，博士，讲师，研究方向为城市地理学、城市与区域规划。E-mail: gaozhe@ccnu.edu.cn
作者简介:朱媛媛(1985— )，女，河南兰考人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为区域发展与城乡规划、文化地理学。E-mail: zhuyy990@ccnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42071170);国家自然科学基金项目(42001188);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(创新资助项目)(2022CXZZ001)

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of ecological well-being performance in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

ZHU Yuanyuan¹^,²(), ZHANG Rui¹^,², GU Jiang³, GAO Zhe¹^,²^,^*()

1. Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation of Hubei Province, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
2. Academy of Wuhan Metropolitan Area, Hubei Development and Reform Commission & Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
3. The Commercial Press Co., Ltd., Beijing 100710, China

Received:2022-05-28 Revised:2022-07-19 Online:2022-12-28 Published:2022-12-31
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071170);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001188);Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Innovative Funding Projects)(2022CXZZ001)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态福利绩效是探析自然生态与人类福利关系、衡量生态文明建设的重要工具。论文运用Super-SBM模型测度2005—2020年长江中游城市群市域尺度生态福利绩效，在识别其时空演变特征的基础上，运用面板Tobit模型探讨驱动生态福利绩效演变的因子，最后在“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下揭示其演变的驱动机制。研究发现： ① 2005—2020年长江中游城市群生态福利绩效呈现出“缓慢衰退→波动→快速发展”的演变特征；② 长江中游城市群生态福利绩效总体上呈“核心—外围”态势，武汉城市圈、环长株潭城市群、环鄱阳湖城市群交界处“中部塌陷”特征明显；③ 长江中游城市群生态福利绩效时空演变是在技术进步、环境规制、产业结构、人口集聚、发展共享、对外开放等多因子循环累积和共同推动下形成的，存在内源转化与外源驱动双重作用路径，并且与碳排放强度密切相关。在“双碳”目标下揭示生态福利绩效时空演变及驱动机制，有助于厘清自然生态与人类福利的转化机理以及生态福利绩效与碳排放的作用关系，可为城市群高质量发展和生态文明建设提供参考。

关键词: “双碳”目标, 生态福利绩效, Super-SBM模型, 面板Tobit模型, 长江中游城市群

Abstract:

Ecological well-being performance is an important tool to explore the relationship between ecology and human well-being and measure the ecological civilization construction. Based on the panel data of cities of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2005 to 2020, this study used the super-slacks-based measure (Super-SBM) model to calculate the value of ecological well-being performance of the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and analyzed its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Based on this, factors driving ecological well-being performance were explored by the panel Tobit Model. The driving mechanism of the evolution was revealed under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The study results indicate that: 1) From 2005 to 2020, the ecological well-being performance of the study area showed the characteristics of slow decline→fluctuation→rapid development. 2) The ecological well-being performance of the study area presented a significant core-periphery structure. "Border area collapse" was obvious at the junction of three sub-agglomerations of Wuhan, Poyang Lake, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan. 3) Through circular accumulation and joint promotion, the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological well-being performance of the study area was driven by multiple factors such as technological progress, environmental regulation, industrial structure, population agglomeration, level of sharing the achievements of development, and degree of opening-up. There existed dual driving pathways of endogenous transformation and exogenous driving, which were closely related to carbon emission intensity. Revealing the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of ecological well-being performance under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals will help us understand the transformation mechanism between ecological elements and human well-being, as well as the relationship between ecological well-being performance and carbon emissions. This study may provide a reference for the high-quality development of urban agglomerations and the ecological civilization construction.

Key words: carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, ecological well-being performance, Super-SBM Model, panel Tobit Model, urban agglomerations of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

朱媛媛, 张瑞, 顾江, 高喆. “双碳”目标下长江中游城市群生态福利绩效演变及驱动机制研究[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(12): 2231-2243.

ZHU Yuanyuan, ZHANG Rui, GU Jiang, GAO Zhe. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of ecological well-being performance in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(12): 2231-2243.

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一级指标	二级指标	具体指标
资源消耗投入	土地资源消耗	人均城市建成区面积(km²/人)
	水资源消耗	人均用水量(m³/人)
	能源消耗	人均用电量(kWh/人)
环境破坏投入	废水排放	人均工业废水排放量(t/人)
	废气排放	人均CO₂排放量(t/人)
	固废排放	人均城市生活垃圾清运量(kg/人)
人类福利产出	经济增长福利	人均GDP(元/人)
	社会平等福利	城乡居民收入均等化水平（农村居民人均可支配收入/城镇居民人均可支配收入）
	教育普及福利	平均受教育年限(a)
	医疗健康福利	每万人卫生机构床位数(床/万人)
	环境友好福利	人均公园绿地面积(m²/人)

解释变量	系数	t值
科技创新(TP)	0.007	0.56
环境规制(ER)	0.003^***	5.34
产业结构(IS)	-0.013^***	-7.23
人口密度(PD)	0.072^***	3.30
城乡共享水平(UR)	0.010^***	4.46
对外开放程度(FDI)	0.008	0.65
常数项	0.359^**	2.26

解释变量	系数	t值
碳排放量(CE)	0.005^***	2.61
碳排放强度(CEI)	<-0.001^**	-2.14
常数项	0.563^***	7.85

“双碳”目标下长江中游城市群生态福利绩效演变及驱动机制研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of ecological well-being performance in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

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