基于地缘位势模型的中国与南高加索三国地缘关系探讨

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.11.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

特殊的地理位置与突出的资源禀赋优势致使南高加索三国向来为多个文明交汇和大国博弈的地区，探究中国与其地缘关系的演变对双方的经济与地缘合作具有重要意义。论文在国际关系学权力理论的基础上，构建地缘位势模型刻画2000—2020年中国与南高加索三国的地缘关系演变特征。研究发现：①2000—2020年中国在南高加索三国的地缘位势呈现出逐年上升趋势与“三阶段”演变特征，即2000—2005年为低位稳定阶段，2006—2012年为起步增长阶段，2013—2020年为快速增长阶段。②从2000—2020年地缘位势平均值、增长速度与增长幅度3个方面看均呈现出中国—亚美尼亚>中国—阿塞拜疆>中国—格鲁吉亚的空间特征。截至2020年，中—亚地缘位势最高；从地缘位势时序特征看，中国—亚美尼亚起步水平低，后期快速上升；中国—阿塞拜疆起步水平高，后期波动上升；中国—格鲁吉亚起步水平低，后期均匀上升。③影响双方地缘关系演变的驱动因素分为正向驱动力与负向驱动力。正向驱动力包括地缘区位、地缘经济、地缘文化与地缘外交，其中地缘区位是本底力，地缘经济是主导力，地缘文化是潜在力，地缘外交是根源力。负向驱动力一方面包括南高加索三国内部地缘政治的欠稳定性因素与地缘文化的强分裂性因素，另一方面包括中国对南高加索三国地缘外交的难介入性因素与地缘经济的弱竞争性因素。两类驱动系统的内部各要素相互作用，共同影响双方地缘关系的演变。

关键词: 地缘位势, 地缘关系, 权力, 南高加索三国

Abstract:

Due to their geographical location and outstanding resource endowments, the South Caucasus countries have always been an area where multiple civilizations meet and great powers play games. It is of great significance to explore the evolution of China's geo-relationship with them for the future cooperation in economic development and political strategies. Based on the power theory of international relations, this study constructed a geo-potential model to describe the evolution characteristics of the geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus countries from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that: 1) The geo-potential between China and the South Caucasus countries from 2000 to 2020 showed an upward trend year by year and experienced three development stages. In the period from 2000 to 2005 the geo-potential was low and stable, the period from 2006 to 2012 was the initial growth stage, and the period from 2013 to 2020 was a period of rapid growth. 2) In terms of the average geo-potential in 20 years, growth rate, and growth range, the spatial trend is China-Armenia > China-Azerbaijan > China-Georgia. As of 2020, the geo-potential of China-Armenia was the highest; In terms of the temporal changes of geo-potential, China-Armenia started at a low level and rose rapidly in the later period; China-Azerbaijan started at a high level and fluctuated in the later period; China-Georgia started at a low level and rose evenly in the later period. 3) The driving mechanisms that affected the evolution of these geo-relationships can be divided into positive mechanism and negative mechanism. The positive driving forces include geo-location, geo-economy, geo-culture, and geo-diplomacy. Geo-location is the background force, geo-economy is the dominant force, geo-culture is the potential force, and geo-diplomacy is the root force. The negative driving forces include, on the one hand, the unstable internal geo-politics and the strong divide of the internal geo-culture in the region, and on the other hand, the difficulty of intervention of China's geo-diplomacy and the weakness of competition of China's geo-economy. The internal elements of the two driving systems interact with each other and jointly affect the evolution of the geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus region.

Key words: geo-potential model, geo-relationship, power, South Caucasus

巴士奇, 牛雪利, 姚宇阳, 陈瑛. 基于地缘位势模型的中国与南高加索三国地缘关系探讨[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(11): 2135-2151.

BA Shiqi, NIU Xueli, YAO Yuyang, CHEN Ying. Geo-relationship between China and the South Caucasus region based on the geo-potential model[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(11): 2135-2151.

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地缘重量	权重	一级指标	权重	二级指标	权重
硬实力S_h	0.5	基本硬实力S₁₁	0.225	人口数量 S₁₁₁ (亿人)	0.545
				国土面积 S₁₁₂ (km²)	0.455
		经济硬实力S₁₂	0.375	GDP总量 S₁₂₁ (亿美元)	0.350
				人均GDP S₁₂₂ (美元)	0.300
				进出口贸易总额 S₁₂₃ (亿美元)	0.350
		军事硬实力S₁₃	0.325	中央财经国防支出 S₁₃₁ (亿美元)	0.675
				武装部队数量 S₁₃₂ (人)	0.325
		科技硬实力S₁₄	0.075	R&D人员全时当量 S₁₄₁ (人)	0.345
				R&D经费投入 S₁₄₂ (亿美元)	0.355
				科学技术成果项 S₁₄₃ (个)	0.300
软实力S_s	0.5	文化软实力S₂₁	0.409	知识产权进出口使用费 S₂₁₁ (亿美元)	0.366
				双向申请专利数 S₂₁₂ (个)	0.342
				科学文献被他国引用次数 S₂₁₃ (次)	0.110
				文化产品进出口总额 S₂₁₄ (亿美元)	0.182
		社会软实力S₂₂	0.319	出入境游客数量 S₂₂₁ (人)	0.408
				出入境留学生数量 S₂₂₂ (人)	0.410
				中国国际移民存量 S₂₂₃ (人)	0.182
		政策软实力S₂₃	0.272	管制质量评价 S₂₃₁(低=1至高=100)	0.325
				政治稳定性与非暴乱评价 S₂₃₂(低=1至高=100)	0.275
				政府效率评价 S₂₃₃(低=1至高=100)	0.225
				腐败控制评价 S₂₃₄(低=1至高=100)	0.175

流动要素	指标	权重
硬实力流动要素	f₁中国对南高三国直接投资存量(美元)	0.25
硬实力流动要素	f₂中国与南高三国贸易总额(美元)	0.25
软实力流动要素	f₃南高三国与中国双向专利申请数量(个)	0.25
软实力流动要素	f₄南高三国赴华留学生数量(人)	0.25

统计特征值	阶段	格鲁吉亚	亚美尼亚	阿塞拜疆	三国总体
平均值	2000—2020年	5.95	12.17	7.80	8.64
	2000—2005年	0.12	0.14	0.41	0.23
	2006—2012年	2.02	3.91	3.98	3.30
	2013—2020年	13.76	28.41	16.68	19.62
平均增速	2000—2020年	1.21	2.20	1.39	1.60
	2000—2005年	0.05	0.05	0.16	0.09
	2006—2012年	0.67	1.11	1.06	0.94
	2013—2020年	2.69	4.53	3.08	3.43
变化幅度	2000—2020年	24.23	43.96	27.75	31.98
	2000—2005年	0.26	0.33	0.81	0.44
	2006—2012年	4.01	6.64	6.36	5.67
	2013—2020年	18.80	31.70	21.54	24.01

年份	中—格		中—亚		中—阿
年份	ED	地缘经济关系	ED	地缘经济关系	ED	地缘经济关系
2000	-1.12	激烈竞争型	-0.19	竞合型	1.31	紧密合作型
2002	-1.22	激烈竞争型	-0.01	竞合型	1.23	紧密合作型
2004	-0.81	潜在竞争型	1.41	紧密合作型	-0.60	潜在竞争型
2006	-0.23	竞合型	-1.10	激烈竞争型	1.32	紧密合作型
2008	0.42	竞合型	-1.38	激烈竞争型	0.96	潜力合作型
2010	0.80	潜力合作型	-1.41	激烈竞争型	0.61	潜力合作型
2012	1.36	紧密合作型	-1.02	激烈竞争型	-0.33	竞合型
2014	0.77	潜力合作型	0.64	潜力合作型	-1.41	激烈竞争型
2016	-0.80	潜在竞争型	1.41	紧密合作型	-0.61	潜在竞争型
2018	-1.24	激烈竞争型	1.20	紧密合作型	0.04	竞合型
2020	-0.96	潜在竞争型	1.38	紧密合作型	-0.42	竞合型