地理科学进展

地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (11): 2123-2134.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.11.011

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

盗窃者犯罪出行距离的特征及其影响因素——基于居住社区、作案社区及出行物理障碍的综合考虑

黎家琪(), 宋广文*(), 肖露子, 张学炜   

  1. 广州大学地理科学与遥感学院，公共安全地理信息分析中心，广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-29 修回日期:2022-06-10 出版日期:2022-11-28 发布日期:2023-01-28
  • 通讯作者: *宋广文(1991— )，男，广东廉江人，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，主要研究方向为时空行为与犯罪地理分析。E-mail: songgwen@gzhu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:黎家琪(1999— )，女，广东佛山人，硕士生，主要研究方向为时空行为与犯罪地理分析。E-mail: LiJQ@e.gzhu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42171218);国家自然科学基金项目(41901177);国家自然科学基金项目(42001171);广东省自然科学基金项目(2019A1515011065)

Characteristics and influencing factors of thieves’ travel distance: A comprehensive consideration of residential community, target community, and physical barriers to travel

LI Jiaqi(), SONG Guangwen*(), XIAO Luzi, ZHANG Xuewei   

  1. Center of GeoInformatics for Public Security, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2022-03-29 Revised:2022-06-10 Online:2022-11-28 Published:2023-01-28
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171218);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901177);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001171);Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2019A1515011065)

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摘要：

从犯罪出行距离的角度研究犯罪行为，有助于更好地理解犯罪发生的机理。已有研究主要探讨作案社区的特征对犯罪者出行距离的影响，尚未综合考虑作案地、居住社区与作案社区差异及出行物理障碍(physical barrier)影响。论文以中国南方某特大城市为例，构建考虑个体层与作案社区层特征的多层线性回归模型，探究盗窃者犯罪出行距离的影响因素。研究发现：① 相比作案社区层，个体层的变量对犯罪出行距离的影响更大；② 出行物理障碍变量会提高模型的解释力，犯罪出行跨越的物理障碍越多，则出行距离越远，且它会影响作案社区中地铁、超市、银行对犯罪出行距离的作用；③ 居住社区与作案社区之间的环境差异对犯罪出行距离有影响，居住社区中的公交站、学校、超市越多，地铁站越少，犯罪者的出行距离越近。研究结论可以为犯罪者的地理画像与警务防控提供理论支撑。

关键词: 犯罪出行距离, 盗窃者, 出行过程, 个体特征, 作案社区

Abstract:

Understanding criminal behavior from the perspective of journey to crime (JTC) is of great significance for that it can help better reveal the mechanism of crime occurrence and crime prediction. However, limited by the access to criminal data, seldom research in China has focused on journey to crime so far. Existing studies mainly discussed the impact of the characteristics of the target community on offender's journey to crime, and few studies comprehensively considered the integrated impact of the residential community, the target community, and physical barriers during the journey to crime. To fill theses gaps, this study applied a multilevel linear regression model based on data of 4119 thief trips in ZG City, one of the bustling metropolises in China, to explore the influencing factors of journey-to-crime distances at the levels of individual layer and target community layer. The results show that: 1) Compared with the target community layer, the individual layer (including factors of personal socioeconomic attributes, crime location selection preference, physical barriers of travel, as well as differences between residential and target communities) has a greater impact on the journey-to-crime distance. The older the offender is, the shorter the distance of their journey to crime will be, while the effect of gender of offenders is not significant. 2) The physical barriers during the journey to crime have a strong explanatory power for the model. The more barriers the offenders have to travel pass, the longer distance of their journey to crime will be. Besides, the barriers will affect the effects of subways, supermarkets, and banks in the target community on the journey-to-crime distance. 3) The difference in facilities between the residential community and the target community has an impact on the journey-to-crime distance. More bus stops, schools, and supermarkets and fewer subway stations in the residential community than those in the target communities will lead to shorter distance of journey to crime. These findings shed some light on the criminal geographic profiling and crime prevention and control.

Key words: journey to crime, thief, physical barriers in criminal travel, individual characteristics, target community