城市住房负担对上海流动人口居留意愿的影响

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.11.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

居留意愿被认为是影响流动人口居留决策的重要因素，而大城市不断增加的住房负担，日益成为制约流动人口居留意愿和行为的关键因素。鉴于既有研究中关于住房负担对流动人口居留意愿影响及其群体差异性考虑的不足，论文以上海为例，基于2012年和2017年流动人口动态监测调查问卷数据，采用二元Logistic回归模型，分析流动人口居留意愿的影响因素及其变化，并探讨住房负担对流动人口居留意愿与决策行为的影响。研究发现：① 房租收入比增加对于流动人口的居留意愿具有明显抑制作用，特别是低教育程度和低技术职业群体更加敏感；② 房价/房租的快速增长加重流动人口的住房负担，增加其实际居留难度，流动人口“想留不能留”将可能迫使其产生居留意愿的改变；③ 城市住房负担持续增加率先对较低劳动技能群体产生“驱离”效应，而压力进一步加剧则将导致更多流动人口迁出或被迫降低生活质量。建议城市政府为流动人口尽量提供更具包容性、可支付和多元化的住房。

关键词: 流动人口, 住房负担, 居留意愿, 房价, 上海

Abstract:

Settlement intention affects the settlement decision of the floating population in cities, and the increasing housing burden has gradually become a key factor restricting the settlement decision of floating population. In view of the relative deficiency of existing research on how housing burden affects the settlement intention of floating population and differences between groups, this study took Shanghai Municipality as an example and used the data in 2012 and 2017 collected from the migrant population dynamic monitoring survey (CMDS) in Shanghai and a binary Logistic regression model to analyze the influencing factors and changes of the floating population's settlement intention, and examined the influence of housing burden on settlement intention and decision of the floating population. The results show that: 1) The increase of housing price to income ratio has a significant negative effect on the floating population's settlement intention, and the groups with lower education level and lower employment status suffer a more significant effect. 2) The rapid growth of housing price increases the housing burden of the floating population, increases their settlement difficulty, and forces them to change their settlement intention and decision. 3) Housing burden will lead to the "driving out" effect on the floating population with lower skills, while the increasing pressure will lead to more people moving out or reduce the quality of life. It is recommended that governments should provide more inclusive, affordable, and diversified housing for the floating population to share the development achievements, so as to promote the ultimate realization of the development goals of "houses are for living in, not for speculation" and common prosperity.

Key words: floating population, housing burden, settlement intention, housing prices, Shanghai Municipality

叶玲, 王捷凯, 宋伟轩. 城市住房负担对上海流动人口居留意愿的影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(11): 2073-2085.

YE Ling, WANG Jiekai, SONG Weixuan. The impact of urban housing burden on settlement intention of floating population in Shanghai[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(11): 2073-2085.

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变量类型	变量名称	测量指标
被解释变量	居留意愿	不愿意、没想好=0；愿意=1
住房负担指标	租金^*	低水平=0；中低水平=1；中水平=2；中高水平=3；高水平=4
住房负担指标	租金收入比	平均每月住房支出/平均每月总收入
社会属性指标	性别	男=0；女=1
	受教育程度	小学及以下=0；初中=1；高中/中专=2；大专及以上=3
	就业身份	农林牧副渔与无固定职业=0；一般服务业与自营劳动者=1；生产、运输、建筑等职业=2；国家机关、事业单位及专业技术人员=3
	户口性质	农业=0；非农业=1
	婚姻状况	未婚或单身=0；已婚=1
	融入本地人意愿	不同意=0；同意=1
	城镇职工医疗保险	没有=0；拥有=1

	变量	2012年				2017年
	变量	β	标准误差	显著性	exp(β)	β	标准误差	显著性	exp(β)
性别	(男)
性别	女	-0.159	0.062	0.010^*	0.853	-0.184	0.108	0.088	0.832
受教育程度	(小学及以下)			0.002^**				0.046^*
	初中	-0.170	0.090	0.059	0.843	0.164	0.147	0.264	1.178
	高中/中专	-0.266	0.111	0.016^*	0.766	0.524	0.190	0.006^**	1.689
	大专及以上	-0.528	0.137	<0.001^***	0.59	0.265	0.212	0.211	1.303
婚姻状况	(未婚或单身)
婚姻状况	已婚	0.482	0.073	<0.001^***	1.619	0.349	0.139	0.012^*	1.417
就业身份	(农林牧渔水利与无固定职业)			0.014^*				0.025^*
	一般服务业与自营劳动者	-0.021	0.186	0.910	0.979	0.052	0.226	0.817	1.054
	生产、运输、建筑等职业	-0.217	0.185	0.241	0.805	0.461	0.211	0.029^*	1.586
	机关事业单位及技术人员	0.057	0.190	0.765	1.059	0.312	0.212	0.141	1.366
租金	(低水平)			<0.001^***				<0.001^***
	中低水平	0.417	0.081	<0.001^***	1.518	0.037	0.161	0.820	1.037
	中水平	0.782	0.103	<0.001^***	2.186	0.618	0.171	<0.001^***	1.856
	中高水平	1.229	0.135	<0.001^***	3.417	1.066	0.228	<0.001^***	2.903
	高水平	1.537	0.213	<0.001^***	4.650	0.920	0.272	0.001^**	2.510
租金收入比	连续变量	-0.987	0.320	0.002^**	0.373	-1.291	0.625	0.039^*	0.275
融入本地人意愿	(不愿意)
融入本地人意愿	愿意	1.345	0.113	<0.001^***	3.837	1.070	0.163	<0.001^***	2.916
城镇职工医疗保险	(无)
城镇职工医疗保险	有	0.201	0.067	0.003^**	1.222
常量		-0.425	0.233	0.068	0.654	-0.087	0.301	0.772	0.916
-2log likelihood		6049.527				2394.914
Hosmer-Lemeshow Test		0.290				0.503