地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 554-566.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.04.002
收稿日期:
2021-08-02
修回日期:
2021-10-19
出版日期:
2022-04-28
发布日期:
2022-06-28
作者简介:
王俊松(1983— ),女,安徽亳州人,副教授,主要从事经济地理方向研究。E-mail: jswang@re.ecnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
Received:
2021-08-02
Revised:
2021-10-19
Online:
2022-04-28
Published:
2022-06-28
Supported by:
摘要:
演化经济地理强调与本地的技术关联对技术演化的影响,在建设科技创新中心的过程中,向复杂技术的升级需要充分考虑本地技术结构及演化特点。论文以北京、上海和深圳3个国际科技创新中心建设城市为例,将复杂性和关联性纳入研究框架,比较分析技术关联和复杂性对城市技术演化的影响。研究发现,北京、上海和深圳的技术结构、技术关联度、复杂性和演化路径存在明显的差异。上海的技术关联度较高,而复杂度偏低;深圳的技术关联度最低,技术复杂度最高;北京居中。从演化趋势看,北京经历了明显的向复杂技术演化的过程;深圳的整体技术复杂度上升幅度最大,但在2006年以后出现向低复杂度技术多元化发展的趋势;上海的技术复杂度上升幅度最小。计量分析表明,与本地技术关联越强的技术越有利于成为3个城市下一阶段的优势技术,但复杂度高的技术更容易成为北京下一阶段的优势技术,对上海和深圳的技术演化没有显著影响。未来国际科技创新中心建设需要充分考虑本地技术基础和演化特征,并制定针对性的技术发展策略。
王俊松, 颜燕. 复杂度、关联度与城市技术演化路径——基于北京、上海、深圳的对比分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(4): 554-566.
WANG Junsong, YAN Yan. Complexity, relatedness and urban technology evolutionary path: A comparative study of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen in China[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(4): 554-566.
表2
计量回归结果
变量 | 北京 | 上海 | 深圳 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |||
xt-1 | 0.070*** | 0.070*** | 0.028 | 0.028 | 0.063** | 0.063** | ||
(0.025) | (0.025) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.028) | (0.028) | |||
relate_density | 0.074*** | 0.074*** | 2.673*** | 2.673*** | 2.100*** | 2.100*** | ||
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.598) | (0.598) | (0.461) | (0.461) | |||
complexity | 3.891*** | 3.891*** | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.017 | 0.017 | ||
(0.349) | (0.349) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |||
ln Techstock | 0.203*** | 0.115*** | 0.113** | |||||
(0.026) | (0.041) | (0.050) | ||||||
ln PGDP | -0.270*** | -0.138** | 0.079 | |||||
(0.040) | (0.058) | (0.069) | ||||||
时间虚拟变量 | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | ||
技术大类虚拟变量 | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
常量 | -0.447*** | 0.377 | -0.336*** | 0.076 | -0.040 | -2.299* | ||
(0.046) | (0.327) | (0.089) | (0.429) | (0.039) | (1.344) | |||
样本量 | 1854 | 1854 | 1854 | 1854 | 1854 | 1854 | ||
R2 | 0.234 | 0.234 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 0.223 | 0.223 |
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