中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.001

地理科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (3): 361-370.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2022.03.001

• 研究论文 • 下一篇

中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析

孙斌栋¹^,²^,³(), 王言言¹^,²^,³, 张志强¹, 李琬¹^,²^,³^,^*()

1. 华东师范大学中国行政区划研究中心,上海 200241
2. 崇明生态研究院,上海 202162
3. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 200241

收稿日期:2021-06-08 修回日期:2021-09-22 出版日期:2022-03-28 发布日期:2022-05-28
通讯作者: *李琬(1990— ),女,河南周口人,博士后,主要从事城市和区域空间结构研究。E-mail: lw1436@163.com
作者简介:孙斌栋(1970— ),男,河北阜平人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事城市地理与经济地理研究。E-mail: bdsun@re.ecnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA068);国家自然科学基金项目(42071210);国家自然科学基金项目(41901184);国家自然科学基金项目(42001183)

The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law

SUN Bindong¹^,²^,³(), WANG Yanyan¹^,²^,³, ZHANG Zhiqiang¹, LI Wan¹^,²^,³^,^*()

1. Research Center for China Administrative Division, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
2. Institute of Eco-Chongming, Shanghai 202162, China
3. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

Received:2021-06-08 Revised:2021-09-22 Online:2022-03-28 Published:2022-05-28
Supported by:
Major Program of National Social Science Foundation of China, No(17ZDA068);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(42071210);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(41901184);National Natural Science Foundation of China, No(42001183)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鉴于以往研究较少关注城市规模分布形态的规模差异性和城市规模分布演化与城市增长模式之间的关联,论文基于1953—2010年中国6次人口普查数据,选择了全部城市(包含地级市市区和县级市)和地级市(地级市市区)2种样本组,对中国城市位序规模分布的形态特征、演变趋势及其与Gibrat定律间的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,中国的城市规模分布主体符合Zipf定律的线性分布,但两端即小城市和超大城市因规模不足而偏离线性分布,这一现象也得到全球各国证据的支持;从演化角度来看,中国城市规模分布在早期逐渐分散化并偏离Zipf定律,但从2000年开始转而向符合Zipf定律的方向回归,其中大城市率先在1990年就开始了转向,与这一阶段城市人口随机增长表现出耦合性,从而验证了Zipf定律和Gibrat定律的逻辑一致性。该发现对于促进中国城市规模分布高质量发展具有重要启示。

关键词: 城市规模分布, Zipf定律, 位序规模法则, Gibrat定律, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the data of permanent residents from six national population census of China over the period 1953-2010, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the size heterogeneity of city size distribution and the relationship between the evolution of city size distribution and city growth model, to which little attention was paid in previous studies. We selected all cities (including prefecture-level cities and county-level cities) and prefecture-level cities (city propers) alone as samples, and empirically analyzed the morphological characteristics and evolution trends of urban rank-size distribution in China and its relationship with Gibrat's Law. The results show that the main body of city size distribution in China conforms to the linear distribution of Zipf's Law. However, the two ends of the city size distribution spectrum, namely small cities and megacities, deviate from the linear distribution due to insufficient sizes. This phenomenon is not unique to China, but supported by evidence from other countries of the world. From the perspective of evolution, the city size distribution in China gradually dispersed and deviated from Zipf's Law in the early stage. However, from 2000, it began to return to the direction in line with Zipf's Law, with big cities taking the lead in 1990, which shows the coupling with the random growth of urban population in this stage and verifies the logical consistency between Zipf's Law and Gibert's Law. The findings of this study have important implications for promoting the high-quality development of city size distribution in China.

Key words: city size distribution, Zipf's Law, rank-size rule, Gibrat's Law, China

孙斌栋, 王言言, 张志强, 李琬. 中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(3): 361-370.

SUN Bindong, WANG Yanyan, ZHANG Zhiqiang, LI Wan. The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2022, 41(3): 361-370.

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样本	指标	1953年	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
所有城市	帕累托指数	0.876	0.933	0.927	1.05	1.243^***	1.166^***
	标准误	-0.097	-0.103	-0.085	-0.07	-0.068	-0.064
	城市数量	163	165	236	455	663	656
地级市	帕累托指数	0.935	1.130	1.090	1.250^*	1.268^**	1.169^*
	标准误	-0.140	-0.183	-0.144	-0.129	-0.111	-0.098
	城市数量	89	76	114	188	263	287

城市规模排位	1953年	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
Top50	1.211	1.586	1.865	2.035	1.622	1.592
Top89	1.136	1.377	1.609	2.188	1.741	1.484
Top100	1.116	1.331	1.552	2.220	1.773	1.489
Top150	1.002	1.081	1.354	2.250	1.880	1.537
Top200	—	—	1.170	2.168	1.914	1.577
Top300	—	—	—	1.905	1.953	1.611
Top400	—	—	—	1.581	1.914	1.608
Top500	—	—	—	—	1.819	1.561
Top600	—	—	—	—	1.627	1.438

样本	指标	1964年	1982年	1990年	2000年	2010年
所有城市	帕累托指数	0.981	1.296^**	2.086^***	1.866^***
	标准误	0.109	0.143	0.192	0.124
	城市数量	163	165	236	455
地级市	帕累托指数		1.482^**	1.706^***	1.526^***	1.269^**
	标准误		0.250	0.226	0.157	0.111
	城市数量		76	114	188	263

年均增长率	基期年份
年均增长率	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000
g53_64	-0.254^***
g53_82	-0.322^***
g53_90	-0.393^***
g53_00	-0.404^***
g53_10	-0.351^***
g64_82	-0.147^***	-0.165^***
g64_90		-0.218^***
g64_00		-0.245^***
g64_10		-0.247^***
g82_90	-0.153^***	-0.093^***	-0.228^***
g82_00			-0.292^***
g82_10			-0.269^***
g90_00	-0.100^**	-0.061^*	-0.109^***	-0.127^***
g90_10				-0.130^***
g00_10	0.020	0.030	0.025	0.022	0.021

年均增长率	基期年份
年均增长率	1953	1964	1982	1990	2000
g53_64	-0.203^***
g53_82	-0.266^***
g53_90	-0.314^***
g53_00	-0.247^***
g53_10	-0.238^***
g64_82	-0.121^***	-0.138^***
g64_90		-0.149^***
g64_00		-0.072^*
g64_10		-0.061
g82_90	-0.096^*	-0.020	-0.107^**
g82_00			-0.133
g82_10			-0.202^*
g90_00	0.037	0.056	0.013	-0.020
g90_10				-0.066
g00_10	0.012	0.062^**	0.012	-0.010	-0.021

中国城市规模分布的形态和演化与城市增长模式——基于Zipf定律与Gibrat定律的分析

The form and evolution of city size distribution and urban growth model in China: An analysis based on Zipf’s Law and Gibrat’s Law

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