地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1609-1618.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.10.001

• 研究论文 •    下一篇

中国主要经济区的近期气候变化特征评估

张学珍1,2(), 郑景云1,2, 郝志新1,2,*()   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院大学,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2020-02-21 修回日期:2020-06-04 出版日期:2020-10-28 发布日期:2020-12-28
  • 通讯作者: 郝志新
  • 作者简介:张学珍(1981— ),男,山东济宁人,研究员,主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail: xzzhang@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603301);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)子课题(XDA19040101);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4)

Climate change assessments for the main economic zones of China during recent decades

ZHANG Xuezhen1,2(), ZHENG Jingyun1,2, HAO Zhixin1,2,*()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-02-21 Revised:2020-06-04 Online:2020-10-28 Published:2020-12-28
  • Contact: HAO Zhixin
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0603301);The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Class A)(XDA19040101);Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2017-4)

摘要:

论文在中国《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》基础上,根据2012年以来的最新研究成果和中国气候公报,综合评估了环渤海经济区、长江经济带、华南经济圈和东北经济区的近期气候变化特征。主要结论有:① 1961—2018年,环渤海经济区、长江经济带、华南经济圈和东北经济区的平均气温上升趋势分别达0.35 ℃/10 a、0.20 ℃/10 a、0.20 ℃/10 a和0.33 ℃/10 a;尽管在1998—2014年间这些区域均出现了增暖趋缓特征,但除东北经济区外,环渤海经济区、长江经济带和华南经济圈均在2014年之后突破了其前最暖年的年均气温记录。② 1961—2018年各经济区(圈、带)的降水趋势变化虽均低于1 mm/10 a,但其间年际和年代际波动显著;2012—2018年降水虽总体偏多,但时空差异较大,其中东北经济区2013年和长江经济带2016年降水为1961年以来最多,而辽宁2014年降水却为1961年以来最少。③ 2014—2018年,各经济区(圈、带)最高气温超历史极值或极端阈值(发生概率≤10%的分位值)的极端高温事件频发,同时环渤海和东北经济区的区域性跨季连旱和极端特大暴雨等事件的发生频率增多,长江经济带暴雨日数偏多,华南经济区受台风影响呈加重态势;长江经济带和东北经济区在增暖同时也出现了多次大范围的极端低温事件。

关键词: 中国经济区, 气候变化, 极端气候事件

Abstract:

On the basis of the Third National Report on Climate Change of China and using the latest scientific literature on climate change of China since 2012 and China climate bulletins, this study assessed the climate changes of four national-level economic zones of China—the Bohai Economic Rim (BER), the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), the South China Economic Zone (SCEZ), and the Northeast China Economic Zone (NEEZ)—during recent decades. The main conclusions are: 1) Annual temperature increased at a rate of 0.35 ℃/10 a, 0.20 ℃/10 a, 0.20 ℃/10 a, and 0.33 ℃/10 a for the BER, YREB, SCEZ, and NEEZ, respectively, over the period 1961 to 2018. Although there was a climate warming slowdown in these regions during 1998-2014, the annual temperature after 2014 broke the warmest records for the BER, YREB, and SCEZ. 2) Precipitation changes over the period 1961 to 2018 were lower than 1 mm/10 a for each region, but there were significant inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations. Precipitation during 2012-2018 were mostly more than normal, but with large spatiotemporal variability. The precipitation of NEEZ in 2013 and precipitation of YREB in 2016 respectively reached the highest values since 1961, but precipitation of Liaoning Province in 2014 reached the lowest since 1961. 3) During 2014-2018, there were more frequent extreme heat events in each region, whose maximum temperature broke historical heat extremes or exceeded the extreme high temperature threshold, that is, the 9th decile. Meanwhile, there were increases in the frequency of inter-seasonal droughts and extreme rainstorms in the BER and NEEZ; and there were more rainstorm days in the YREB and more severe impacts of typhoons in the SCEZ. There were also extensive extreme low temperature events in the context of climate warming in the YREB and NEEZ.

Key words: economic zones of China, climate change, extreme climate events