中国枢纽机场时间延误成本估算与航线影响分析及中美比较

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.07.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

论文借鉴欧洲控制研究中心以机型为基本单元的延误成本估算模型(简称EC估算模型)及其相关算法,以EC估算模型为基础,补充机型配置比和引入航班执行阶段作为影响参数,估算了24 h中国枢纽机场单位时长延误成本和时间延误总成本,进行了时间延误成本的航线影响分析及中美比较,得到如下结论：① 区域枢纽机场时间延误成本普遍低于复合枢纽机场,但前者中机型单位时长延误成本和登机口成本均高于后者,从中可透视出其分别与中国航线网络中心集聚、航空地理市场(机型配置)需求和航线网络模式应用的密切相关;枢纽机场空中维持成本在时间延误总成本中占比最大,说明中国空中廊道设置存在缺陷。② 枢纽机场间(航线)以及枢纽机场与非枢纽机场之间(航线)时间延误总成本的差异深受航线属性所影响,其根本又在于航空地理市场(机型配置)需求以及空中廊道参与机场位置。③ 中美枢纽机场和枢纽机场间(航线)时间延误成本均有较大差异,主要表现为中国空中维持成本远高于美国,这是由空中廊道特征路径宽度和航迹交叉点数量2个因素造成的。

关键词: 时间延误成本, 枢纽机场, EC估算模型, 空中廊道, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the European Control (EC) estimation model and using aircraft configuration ratio and flight stages as impact parameters, this study estimated the time delay cost and the total time delay cost of Chinese hub airports in 24 hours with the improved EC estimation model. Then the air routes effect of time delay cost was analyzed and a comparison with the United States was carried out. The conclusions are as follows: 1) Time delay cost of the compound hub airports is generally higher than that of the regional hub airports while per minute delay cost and gating cost of regional hub airports are higher. This is caused by the centrality of the network structure of air routes, the need of aero geographic market, and the influence on the transmission efficiency of the aviation network in China. The air maintenance cost of hub airports accounts for the largest proportion of the total cost of time delay, which indicates that there are defects in the configuration of air corridors in China. 2) The spatial heterogeneity of the total cost of time delay between hub airports (air routes) and hub airport to non-hub airport (air routes) is caused by air route attributes, which are determined by the joint action of geographic market demand and the location of participating airports in air-corridors in the sky. The specific performance is affected by the difference of clustering levels: the hub and non-hub airports (air routes) generally exist in the low level, and the hub airports (air routes) basically exist in the high level. There is a significant difference in the total cost of time delay between the compound hub airports and the regional hub airports. The three routes in the fifth level clustering connect PEK, SHA, CAN, which is dominated by the aero geographic market, and the total cost of time delay accounts for 9.22% of the total cost of all routes in 24 hours. Among the total cost of time delay between hub airport and non-hub airport (air routes), PEK-SZX is the highest, followed by SHA-NKG. 3) The difference in time delay cost of hub airports and air routes between China and the United States is mainly manifested in the different proportion of the flight stages, which is determined by the width of characteristic path and the number of track intersections in air corridors in the sky.

Key words: time delay cost, hub airports, EC estimation model, air corridors, China

杜欣儒, 路紫, 李仁杰, 董雅晴, 高伟. 中国枢纽机场时间延误成本估算与航线影响分析及中美比较[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(7): 1160-1171.

DU Xinru, LU Zi, LI Renjie, DONG Yaqing, GAO Wei. Estimation of time delay cost of hub airports in China, air routes effect and comparison with the United States[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(7): 1160-1171.

图/表 8

图1

表1

中国枢纽机场6种机型配置比及3个航班执行阶段单位时长延误成本"

机型/座位容量 (成本标准值/(€/min))^*		A319/122 (0.6/2.6/7.1)	A320/158 (0.6/2.6/7.7)	A321/185 (0.7/3.0/9.5)	B737-800/162 (0.5/2.9/7.8)	A333/370 (1.8/4.5/27.6)	B777-300ER/300 (0.6/10.6/14.2)
PEK	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	2.93 0.12/0.47/1.26	17.59 0.70/2.81/8.09	23.28 0.93/4.19/13.27	23.62 0.71/4.02/11.10	20.34 2.24/13.02/33.76	12.24 0.49/3.30/10.40
SHA	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	1.09 0.04/0.17/0.47	21.68 0.87/3.47/9.98	21.68 0.87/3.90/12.36	39.78 1.19/6.76/18.70	12.48 1.37/7.99/20.72	3.28 0.13/0.88/2.78
PVG	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	3.47 0.14/0.55/1.49	30.11 1.20/4.82/13.85	24.09 0.96/4.34/13.73	25.36 0.76/4.31/11.92	6.20 0.68/3.97/10.30	10.77 0.43/2.91/9.15
CAN	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	6.13 0.25/0.98/2.64	23.24 (0.93/3.72/10.69	15.63 0.63/2.81/8.91	43.03 1.29/7.31/20.22	7.12 0.78/4.56/11.82	4.85 0.19/1.31/4.12
CKG	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	19.12 0.76/3.06/8.22	51.39 2.06/8.22/23.64	13.94 0.56/2.51/7.95	13.94 0.42/2.37/6.55	1.2 0.13/0.76/1.98	0.40 0.02/0.11/0.34
CTU	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	14.77 0.59/2.36/6.35	33.86 1.35/5.42/15.57	24.58 0.98/4.42/14.01	19.87 0.60/3.38/9.34	6.67 0.73/4.27/11.07	0.26 0.01/0.07/0.22
WUH	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	4.55 0.18/0.73/1.95	21.21 0.85/3.39/9.76	6.44 0.26/1.16/3.67	66.29 1.99/11.27/31.16	0.76 0.08/0.48/1.26	0.76 0.03/0.20/0.64
CGO	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	2.16 0.09/0.35/0.93	23.74 0.95/3.80/10.92	3.24 0.13/0.58/1.85	70.50 2.12/11.99/33.14	0.36 0.04/0.23/0.60	0 0/0/0
SHE	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	4.33 0.17/0.69/1.86	47.99 1.92/7.86/22.07	14.86 0.59/2.67/8.47	31.58 0.95/5.37/14.84	0.62 0.07/0.40/1.03	0.62 0.02/0.17/0.53
XIY	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	10.03 0.40/1.61/4.31	38.19 1.53/6.11/17.57	15.86 0.63/2.85/9.04	34.95 1.05/5.94/16.43	0.97 0.11/0.62/1.61	0 0/0/0
KMG	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	5.99 0.24/0.96/2.58	26.65 1.07/4.26/12.26	3.31 0.13/0.60/1.88	62.40 1.87/10.61/29.33	1.65 0.18/1.06/2.74	0 0/0/0
URC	配置比/% 延误成本/(€/min)	19.71 0.79/3.16/8.50	24.42 0.98/3.91/11.23	15.12 0.60/2.72/8.62	37.21 1.12/6.33/17.49	2.33 0.26/1.49/3.86	1.16 0.05/0.31/0.99

表1

图2

图3

表2

表3

图4

图5

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美国					中国
航线	时间延误成本				航线	时间延误成本
航线	登机口	滑行	空中维持	总计	航线	登机口	滑行	空中维持	总计
DEN-CLT	14499	71972	76086	162557	PEK-KMG	16547	62979	169572	249098
LAX-JFK	43668	167542	156062	267272	PEK-SHA	29592	34487	173140	337219
SFO-DEN	22719	52593	31354	106666	PEK-CAN	17641	68828	241567	328036
ATL-DFW	50207	70232	27704	148143	PEK-CTU	24352	59329	248979	332660
CLT-ORD	30354	111835	187679	229868	PEK-XIY	47983	41140	133639	222762
JFK-CLT	23588	265200	45255	334043	CTU-CAN	21095	29069	201833	251997
JFK-SFO	27699	125408	156253	309360	CTU-SHA	40611	56130	145523	242264
ATL-DEN	55128	145523	6169	206820	CTU-WUH	29554	55115	75821	160490
ATL-PHL	35457	174688	35380	245525	KMG-XIY	11007	14764	181690	207461
LAX-ORD	11536	11823	17632	130991	CAN-SHA	28323	44707	91317	164347