地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 804-814.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.05.009

• 犯罪地理专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时空临近重复效应的犯罪热点特征及成因分析——以北京市抢劫案件为例

郭雅琦, 陈鹏*()   

  1. 中国人民公安大学警务信息工程与网络安全学院,北京 102600
  • 收稿日期:2019-10-12 修回日期:2020-02-25 出版日期:2020-05-28 发布日期:2020-07-28
  • 通讯作者: 陈鹏 E-mail:chenpeng@ppsuc.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:郭雅琦(1996— ),女,河南郑州人,硕士生,主要从事犯罪地理、文本挖掘方面的研究。E-mail:hnpyagyq@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    北京市自然科学基金项目(9192022);社会安全风险感知与防控大数据应用国家工程实验室主任基金项目;中国人民公安大学2019年拔尖人才培养专项资助硕士研究生科研创新项目(2019ssky002)

Formation and feature analyses of crime hotspots using near repeat principle: A case study of robbery in Beijing

GUO Yaqi, CHEN Peng*()   

  1. Institute of Information Engineering of Policing and Cyber Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 102600, China
  • Received:2019-10-12 Revised:2020-02-25 Online:2020-05-28 Published:2020-07-28
  • Contact: CHEN Peng E-mail:chenpeng@ppsuc.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of Beijing(9192022);National Engineering Laboratory Director Fund for Social Security Risk Perception and Prevention and Control of Large Data Applications;Top Talents Training Specialized Subsidy for Scientific Research and Innovation Projects of Master's Graduates of People's Public Security of China in 2019(2019ssky002)

摘要:

时空临近重复效应是犯罪活动的一种重要时空特征。为深入研究犯罪热点的特征及其形成原因,论文以北京市内城六区2012—2014年抢劫案件为例,通过核密度估计、时空临近重复计算及定义时空临近重复案件链等方法分析了犯罪热点的案件构成,并从犯罪人因素和环境因素等方面对犯罪热点内的案件特征结构进行了分析。结果表明:北京市内城六区的抢劫案件存在有“a”“b”“c”三个主要的空间热点,并且热点内的大部分案件均具有显著的时空临近重复效应;其中热点“a”位于双井、劲松一带,热点“c”位于南四环大红门桥一带,且2个热点内案件的犯罪人特征在一致性程度上高于环境类特征,表明热点的形成源于犯罪人在热点区域内重复作案的可能性较大;而热点“b”位于东南三环的分钟寺地区,热点内案件的环境类特征在一致性程度上高于犯罪人特征,表明该热点的形成为不同犯罪人在热点区域内集中作案的可能性较高。研究对警务部门开展针对性的犯罪打击和防控有一定的支撑作用。

关键词: 时空临近重复效应, 犯罪热点, Simpson指数, 案件链, 北京

Abstract:

As a significant spatiotemporal characteristic of crimes, repeat and near repeat pattern has received much interest in criminology research. The purpose of this study was to explore the formation process and features of crime hotspots by using near repeat principle. Robbery cases in six districts of Beijing inner city from 2012 to 2014 were used to examine the extent to which repeats and near repeats spatially intersect robbery hotspots. All the case chains within crime hotspots satisfying repeat and near repeat principle were screened out. From this, by dividing the case characteristics into criminal factors and environmental factors, the characteristics of case chains were analyzed to describe the features and formation of hotspots. The results suggest that there were three main crime hotspots in the six districts of Beijing inner city, namely "a", "b", "c", and most of the cases located within the hotspots were repeats and near repeats. The hotspot "a" was located in Shuangjing and Jinsong, and the hotspot "c" was located in Dahongmen Bridge. The characteristics of the criminal factors of these two hotspots were more consistent than that of the environmental factors, which indicates that the formation of the hotspots were more likely to originate from the repeated crimes committed in the area by criminals. The hotspot "b" was located in Fenzhongsi area by the southeastern third ring road. The characteristics of the environmental factors of this hotspot were more consistent than that of the criminal factors, which indicates that the formation of the hotspot was more likely to originate from different criminals committing crimes in this area. The research findings presented in this article can aid decision making on crime prevention and detection in policing.

Key words: near repeat principle, crime hotspot, Simpson index, case chain, Beijing