地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.016

地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 695-706.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.04.016

地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

熊琛然^1,², 王礼茂^1,^2,^*(), 屈秋实^1,², 向宁^1,², 王博^1,²

^1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
^2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049

收稿日期:2019-04-26 修回日期:2019-09-23 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2020-06-28
通讯作者: 王礼茂
作者简介:熊琛然(1985— ),男,湖南永州人,博士生,主要从事能源经济/地缘政治研究。E-mail: xiongcr.17b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41971163);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010202);国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA041)

Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research

XIONG Chenran^1,², WANG Limao^1,^2,^*(), QU Qiushi^1,², XIANG Ning^1,², WANG Bo^1,²

^1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2019-04-26 Revised:2019-09-23 Online:2020-04-28 Published:2020-06-28
Contact: WANG Limao
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971163);Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010202);Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China(16ZDA041)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

地缘政治风险是影响全球和区域和平、稳定与发展的5大风险之一。如何识别、评估、预测和管理地缘政治风险成为国内外共同关注的问题。国内外学者对地缘政治风险这一术语的定义还不统一。当前地缘政治风险研究,在致险因素分析、风险影响刻画、风险量化与制图等领域都有一些新进展。针对地缘政治风险致险因子的时空差异性和多变性、各致险因子相互影响与反馈机制的复杂性以及地缘政治风险的突发性和不确定性,对致险因素的精准识别,地缘政治风险形成的机理,地缘政治风险监测与模拟等研究成为核心和前沿问题。中国未来地缘政治风险和重要研究方向包括：周边地区地缘政治风险研究;地缘政治风险的定量化与模拟研究;跨学科、大数据、多终端的地缘政治风险集成计算方法与预警服务平台建设;凝炼科学问题,提升对现实地缘政治问题的解释能力。

关键词: 地缘政治, 地缘要素, 风险, 量化与预估, 进展与展望

Abstract:

Geopolitical risk is one of the five categories of risk identified in the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report, with significant effects on the global and regional peace, stability, and development. How to identify, measure, forecast, and manage the impact that geopolitical risks on human well-being are taken into consideration by researchers worldwide. Global scientific researchers have not yet reached a consensus on the definition of geopolitical risks. Geopolitical risk research has made notable progress in the fields of 1) analyzing the causal factors of geopolitical risks; 2) identifying the impact of geopolitical risks; and 3) measuring and mapping geopolitical risks. Considering the fact that challenges come from the spatiotemporal differences and variability of geopolitical risk factors, the complexity of the various risk causing factors on interaction and response mechanisms, and the unpredictability and uncertainty of geopolitical risks, geopolitical risk research has made further progress on the following frontier issues: 1) identification of geopolitical risk causing factors; 2) occurrence mechanism of geopolitical risks; and 3) monitoring and simulation of geopolitical risks. Future directions of geopolitical risk research in China include: 1) research on national geo-security with spatial differentiation, especially forthesurrounding areas of China; 2) quantitative reconstruction and numerical simulation of the geopolitical risks across multiple scales and multiple geo-factors; 3) new computation ways supporting the interaction of other scientific disciplines and the use of big data, and new platform integrating early warning of geopolitical risks; 4) focusing on scientific issues and promoting the ability of theoretical and practical research output in dealing with geopolitical issues.

Key words: geopolitics, geo-factors, risks, assessment and forecast of geopolitical risks, progress and prospect

熊琛然, 王礼茂, 屈秋实, 向宁, 王博. 地缘政治风险研究进展与展望[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(4): 695-706.

XIONG Chenran, WANG Limao, QU Qiushi, XIANG Ning, WANG Bo. Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(4): 695-706.

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[89]	张珣, 李江涛, 张小虎 , 等. 耦合多源地缘要素的地缘环境模拟与预测平台建设[J]. 科技导报, 2018,36(3):55-61.
	[ Zhang Xun, Li Jiangtao, Zhang Xiaohu , et al. Construction of a geopoliticalenvironment simulation and prediction platform coupling multi-source geopolitical environment factors. Science & Technology Review, 2018,36(3):55-61. ]
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学者	典型界定	侧重点
Middeldorp等^[24]	是指国家间或国际组织间的冲突事件对某一国家或区域内的经济具有破坏性影响的状况	强调冲突性及影响
Burrows等^[25]	是指对人类发展福祉具有潜在破坏性的政治经济变动趋势	不明确
Caldara等^[4]	是指战争、恐怖主义行为、国家间冲突等事件对国际关系正常秩序与和平进程的影响	强调冲突性及影响
Neacsu^[26]	是指因国家间冲突和紧张关系、战争、资源争端、恐怖主义行为等地缘政治因素影响一个国家或地区的社会经济活动和行为的事件	强调冲突性及影响
刘文革等^[27]	是指国家或地区因政治动荡、社会动乱、军事冲突、恐怖主义活动等突发性事件,或者因政府治理效率低下、腐败等非突发性政治属性问题而产生的对政治、经济、社会等带来不可估量损失的风险	强调冲突性与和平性及影响

年份	石油生产量 /(百万桶/d)	生产量-国内消费量/(百万桶/d)	石油收入 /10亿美元	政府来自石油的收入占GDP比重/%
2010	4.42	2.55	72.2	—
2011	4.27	2.57	114.8	10.8
2012	3.81	1.90	101.5	6.6
2013	3.60	1.56	61.9	6.5
2014	3.70	1.68	53.7	5.7
2015	3.90	1.95	18.0	3.9

年份/时段	国家	遭毁坏的文化遗产地(部分)	地缘政治事件
2001年	阿富汗	比尤达(Buda) 2处历史纪念碑(1500 a历史)	塔利班武装袭击
2003年	伊拉克	多处古代考古遗址	美国军事入侵
2005年	亚美尼亚	中世纪亚美尼亚公墓、纳西文墓碑	阿塞拜疆-亚美尼亚冲突
2011年	巴林	阿米尔·穆罕默德清真寺(400 a历史)	阿拉伯之春(反政府武装)
2013—2015年	利比亚	古生代遗址	阿拉伯之春(内战)、ISIS袭击
2014—2015年	伊拉克	尼姆鲁德(Nimrud)和哈特拉(Hatra)古代考古遗址、巴什塔皮亚(Bash Tapia)中世纪城堡、摩苏尔(Mosul)文物博物馆等	ISIS袭击
2014年	埃及	伊斯兰艺术博物馆	恐怖袭击
2015—2018年	叙利亚	阿勒颇(Aleppo)历史纪念中心、帕尔米拉(Palmyra)古城遗址、阿因达拉(Ain Dara)神庙	ISIS袭击、内战、土耳其入侵

地缘政治风险研究进展与展望

Progress and prospect of geopolitical risk research

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