地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 443-453.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.009

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下中国玉米生产潜力变化特征

周美君1, 李飞1,2,*(), 邵佳琪1, 杨海娟1   

  1. 1.西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
    2.陕西省地表过程与环境承载力重点实验室,西安 710127
  • 收稿日期:2019-04-09 修回日期:2019-10-14 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2020-05-28
  • 通讯作者: 李飞 E-mail:lifei@nwu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:周美君(1996— ),女,陕西榆林人,硕士生,主要从事生态系统服务权衡研究。E-mail: 979530303@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41701094);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2018JQ4024)

Change characteristics of maize production potential under the background of climate change in China

ZHOU Meijun1, LI Fei1,2,*(), SHAO Jiaqi1, YANG Haijuan1   

  1. 1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
    2.Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Xi'an 710127, China
  • Received:2019-04-09 Revised:2019-10-14 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2020-05-28
  • Contact: LI Fei E-mail:lifei@nwu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701094);Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(2018JQ4024)

摘要:

玉米作为中国第一大粮食作物,探究其生产潜力在气候变化背景下的时空变化特征对中国有效应对气候变化具有重要意义。论文结合全球农业生态区模型、极点对称模态分解方法和集对分析方法,探讨了中国玉米生产潜力的周期性波动特征及长期变化趋势,进而分析了其空间格局演变过程。结果表明:1960—2010年间,中国玉米生产潜力呈增加趋势,由1960年代的9.10亿t增至2000年代的9.45亿t左右。在年际尺度上,中国玉米生产潜力主要以准3 a和准5 a的周期进行波动;在年代际尺度上,存在准10 a和准20 a的波动周期。其中,准3 a的周期波动是中国玉米生产潜力长时间变化的最主要特征,这主要是受年降水量变化的影响。从空间格局来看,中国玉米生长适宜区主要集中在加格达奇—锡林浩特—临河—西宁—天水—中甸沿线以东;1960—2000年间,玉米生产潜力界线在中国东北部和临河—西宁沿线发生了较为明显的移动。华北平原、辽河平原、四川盆地等地区的玉米单产潜力变化趋势具有较强的一致性,松嫩平原、三江平原、关中盆地、长江中下游平原等地区的玉米单产潜力变化过程与上述地区恰好相反。在这2类地区,玉米单产潜力的变化均较显著,但变化方向在年代际尺度上具有交替性。

关键词: 玉米生产潜力, 周期性, 空间格局, 气候变化, 中国

Abstract:

Maize is China's largest food crop. Exploring the temporal and spatial characteristics of maize production potential in the context of climate change is of great significance for China to effectively adapt to climate change. This study combined global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) model, extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) method, and set-pair analysis method to explore the periodic fluctuation characteristics and long-term trend of maize production potential in China and analyzed the process of spatial pattern change. The results show that China's maize production potential increased during 1960-2010, from 910 million tons in the 1960s to 945 million tons in the 2000s. On the interannual scale, China's maize production potential mainly fluctuated in the quasi-three-year and quasi-five-year periods; on the interdecadal scale, there were quasi-10-year and quasi-20-year fluctuation periods. The quasi-three-year periodic fluctuation was the most important feature of the long-term change of maize production potential, which was mainly affected by the change of annual precipitation. Spatially, maize growing areas were mainly concentrated in the region east of Jiagedaqi-Xilinhot-Linhe-Xining-Tianshui-Zhongdian. During the 1960s-2000s, the maize production potential boundary moved in the northeastern part of China and along the Linhe-Xining line. The trend of change of maize production potential in the North China Plain, Liaohe Plain, and Sichuan Basin showed strong consistency; however, the change process in the Songnen Plain, Sanjiang Plain, Guanzhong Basin, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was the opposite of the above. In both types of regions, the changes in maize production potential were significant, and the direction of change was alternating on the interdecadal scale.

Key words: maize production potential, periodic fluctuations, spatial pattern, climate change, China