基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.007

地理科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 420-432.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2020.03.007

基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例

宁思雨¹, 黄晶¹, 汪志强¹, 王慧敏^1,^2,^*()

1.河海大学管理科学研究所,南京 211100
2.河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210098

收稿日期:2019-02-02 修回日期:2019-05-09 出版日期:2020-03-28 发布日期:2020-05-28
通讯作者: 王慧敏
作者简介:宁思雨(1994— ),女,江苏徐州人,硕士生,主要从事洪涝灾害风险管理研究。E-mail: nhawking@hotmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(71601070);国家自然科学基金项目(91846203);国家自然科学基金项目(41877526)

Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model: A case study of Hubei Province

NING Siyu¹, HUANG Jing¹, WANG Zhiqiang¹, WANG Huimin^1,^2,^*()

1.Management Science Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Received:2019-02-02 Revised:2019-05-09 Online:2020-03-28 Published:2020-05-28
Contact: WANG Huimin
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(71601070);National Natural Science Foundation of China(91846203);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41877526)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

洪涝灾害对产业系统造成的经济影响既有直接经济损失也有间接经济损失,而间接经济损失远远高于直接经济损失,研究间接经济损失对灾害风险控制具有重要意义。论文基于投入产出模型,利用2016年湖北省洪涝灾害直接经济损失数据,从产业关联视角计算不同洪涝淹没水深下的产业部门间接经济损失。研究结果表明：① 随着淹没水深增加,不同产业部门受洪涝灾害冲击引起的直接经济损失与间接经济损失相应增加。② 大部分产业部门由于产业关联关系造成的间接经济损失高于直接经济损失;当淹没水深较小时,一些资产较密集的产业部门受洪涝灾害冲击较大,造成的直接经济损失高于间接经济损失。③ 全社会总直接经济损失与间接经济损失呈非线性关系,且间接经济损失随着直接经济损失增加而增加;当淹没水深大于2.093 m时,间接经济损失约是直接经济损失的1.15倍。

关键词: 洪涝灾害, 间接经济损失, 淹没水深, 投入产出模型, 湖北省

Abstract:

Flood disasters cause both direct and indirect economic losses to industrial systems, and indirect economic losses may be much higher than direct economic losses. Studying indirect economic losses is of great significance for disaster risk reduction. Based on the input-output model, this study used the direct economic loss data of flood disasters in Hubei Province in 2016 to evaluate indirect economic losses under different flood water depth, from the perspective of sectorial interconnectedness. The results show that: 1) With the increase of flood water depth, direct economic losses and indirect economic losses increase accordingly. 2) For most industrial sectors, indirect economic losses caused by industrial interconnectedness are higher than direct economic losses. However, when flood water depth is shallow, some industrial sectors with more intensive fixed assets are more affected by flood disasters, resulting in higher direct economic losses. 3) The total indirect economic losses show a nonlinear relationship with the total direct economic losses, but with the same trend. When the flood water depth is greater than 2.093 m, indirect economic losses are about 1.15 times of direct economic losses.

Key words: flood disaster, indirect economic losses, flood water depth, input-output model, Hubei Province

宁思雨, 黄晶, 汪志强, 王慧敏. 基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(3): 420-432.

NING Siyu, HUANG Jing, WANG Zhiqiang, WANG Huimin. Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model: A case study of Hubei Province[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2020, 39(3): 420-432.

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		中间需求				最终需求	总需求
		部门1	部门2	…	部门n	最终需求	总需求
中间投入	部门1	Q₁₁	Q₁₂	…	Q₁_n	Y₁	Q₁
	部门2	Q₂₁	Q₂₂	…	Q₂_n	Y₂	Q₂
	…	…	…	…	…	…	…
	部门n	Q_n₁	Q_n₂	…	Q_nn	Y_n	Q_n
最终产值	劳动报酬	V₁	V₂	…	V_n
	社会纯收入	M₁	M₂	…	M_n
	折旧	D₁	D₂	…	D_n
	小计	Z₁	Z₂	…	Z_n
总投入		Q₁	Q₂	…	Q_n

序号	部门	固定资产	序号	部门	固定资产
1	农业	1086.49	11	房地产业	6063.74
2	采矿业	329.40	12	租赁服务业	806.37
3	制造业	10522.40	13	科学研究和技术服务业	151.87
4	能源供应业	934.69	14	公共设施管理业	3735.20
5	建筑业	475.46	15	其他服务业	139.16
6	交通运输业	2794.23	16	教育	366.66
7	信息业	150.75	17	卫生和社会工作	269.46
8	批发和零售业	725.27	18	文化、体育和娱乐业	323.91
9	住宿和餐饮业	286.04	19	社会保障	309.77
10	金融业	33.00

基于投入产出法的洪涝灾害间接经济损失评估——以湖北省为例

Indirect economic losses of flood disaster based on an input-output model: A case study of Hubei Province

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产业类型	淹没水深
产业类型	0~0.5 m	0.5~1 m	1~2 m	2~3 m	>3 m
农业相关	13	24	55	69	81
工业相关	5	10	15	30	40
建筑业相关	3	5	7	10	20
商业相关	5	10	25	40	50
服务业相关	5	10	15	25	35
家庭财产相关	3	8	30	50	70
房地产业相关	5	15	40	60	80

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