地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 1876-1889.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.12.005

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

犯罪数量与危害的空间分布及建成环境影响——基于北京市刑事案件的纵向研究

张延吉1, 朱春武2,*(), 秦波2   

  1. 1. 福州大学建筑与城乡规划学院,福州350108
    2. 中国人民大学城市规划与管理系,北京100872
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-18 修回日期:2019-05-31 出版日期:2019-12-28 发布日期:2019-12-28
  • 通讯作者: 朱春武
  • 作者简介:张延吉(1989— ),男,上海人,讲师,硕士生导师,研究方向为城市地理学。E-mail: chairman7up@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJCZH258)

Spatial distribution of crime number and harm and the influence of the built environment: A longitudinal research on criminal cases in Beijing

ZHANG Yanji1, ZHU Chunwu2,*(), QIN Bo2   

  1. 1. School of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
    2. Department of Urban Planning and Management, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2018-12-18 Revised:2019-05-31 Online:2019-12-28 Published:2019-12-28
  • Contact: ZHU Chunwu
  • Supported by:
    The Project of Humanities and Social Science Youth Fund of Ministry of Education(19YJCZH258)

摘要:

既有犯罪地理研究存在“重犯罪数量、轻犯罪危害”“多横向分析、少纵向分析”“求本地影响、弃空间依赖”等局限。为此,论文利用2012—2017年北京刑事案件、兴趣点、道路网等3期面板数据,以个案刑罚结果衡量其社会危害性,探究犯罪发生数量与危害程度的空间结构,厘清建成环境对两者的影响异同。研究表明:① 犯罪数量与危害均呈集中集聚格局,但犯罪危害的集中程度高于数量、集聚程度低于数量、稳定程度相对偏弱。② 如防卫空间理论所言,高强度土地利用、多样化城市功能、通达的次干道支路网、邻近诱发地都对犯罪数量和危害发挥正向作用,后者所受影响更大。③ 建成环境的上述影响大多存在空间依赖,3D维度和商业场所具有集聚溢出效应,管制较严的教育科研机构、公园广场、旅馆、公交站、停车场、居民区表现出内低外高式的空间竞争效应。

关键词: 犯罪地理, 犯罪危害, 建成环境, 纵向研究, 北京

Abstract:

Existing criminal geography research has always focused on the number of cases, but neglected their severity. Limited by the availability of data, cross-sectional analysis was more universal than longitudinal, which would cause endogeneity problems. Furthermore, spatial dependence of different independent variables has not been systematically examined. In order to fill these gaps, this study utilized criminal case records, points of interest, and road network data from 2012 to 2017 in Beijing to explore spatial pattern of crime number and its harm, and clarify the role of urban built environment in their forming process. In order to measure the extent of crime harm, criminal penalty by judicial authorities was used as the indicator. First, this research demonstrated that both crime number and crime harm showed geographical concentration and agglomeration. However, concentration extent of crime harm was higher than crime number, but agglomeration extent of crime harm was lower than crime number. The degree of harmspot's stability was weaker than crimespot, therefore geographical analysis of crime number cannot fully reveal the spatial pattern of social harms caused by criminal cases. Second, permeable space postulated by street eyes theory was unable to inhibit criminal activities, while high density land use, diversified urban functions, convenient transport branch networks, and close spatial proximity to crime-prone areas could lead to the increase of crime number and crime harm, which is consistent with the prediction of defensible space theory. Additionally, crime harm was more susceptible to conducive built environment factors. Third, most influences caused by various characteristics of the built environment showed spatial dependence. Specifically, density, diversity, design of road network, as well as commercial place had agglomeration spillover effect, which meant that both local and neighboring environmental elements had positive relationship with native criminal activities. In contrast, local educational institutions, parks, squares, hotels, bus stops, parking lots, and residential areas that were strictly supervised had no effect or negative effect on native criminal activities, but neighboring attractors had significant positive impact on native criminal patterns. Because of this spatial competition effect, security measures should not confine to local areas and attractors.

Key words: criminal geography, crime harm, built environment, longitudinal research, Beijing