地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 930-940.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.06.013

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010—2015年中东北非政局变动中的“政治性民意势力”及其影响

熊理然1,2,3(), 刘保强1,2,*(), 武友德1,2, 蒋梅英1,2   

  1. 1. 云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,昆明 650500
    2. 云南师范大学中国西南对外开放与边疆安全研究中心,昆明 650500
    3. 云南师范大学孟加拉湾地区研究中心,昆明 650500
  • 收稿日期:2018-10-06 修回日期:2019-01-27 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-06-27
  • 通讯作者: 刘保强 E-mail:xiongliran001@163.com;liubaoqiang163@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    第一作者简介:熊理然(1976— ),男,湖南道县人,博士,教授,博导,主要从事区域合作与地缘安全研究。E-mail: xiongliran001@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41561033,41861028,41261034);国家社科基金重大项目(16ZDA041);云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目(2017CX07);云南师范大学柬埔寨研究中心开放基金课题(2018JPZ003)

“Political public opinion forces” in political changes of the Middle East and North Africa and their geopolitical influences

Liran XIONG1,2,3(), Baoqiang LIU1,2,*(), Youde WU1,2, Meiying JIANG1,2   

  1. 1. School of Tourism and Geography Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
    2. Research Center for Southwest China's Opening-up and Borderland Security, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
    3. Center for Bay of Bengal Area Studies, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2018-10-06 Revised:2019-01-27 Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-06-27
  • Contact: Baoqiang LIU E-mail:xiongliran001@163.com;liubaoqiang163@163.com
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41561033,41861028 and 41261034;Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 16ZDA041;Philosophy and Social Science Innovation Team Construction Project of Yunnan Province, No. 2017CX07;Open Fund Project of Center for Cambodia Studies of Yunnan Normal University, No. 2018JPZ003.

摘要:

援引批判地缘政治学话语权和地缘政治想象分析方法,在对“民意”“政治性民意”“政治性民意势力”内涵界定的基础上,分析了2010—2015年中东北非地区相关国家政局变动中“政治性民意势力”的形成背景、过程及其影响。结果表明:中东北非国家“政治性民意势力”的形成有着深厚的国内背景和复杂的国际背景;“政治性民意势力”的形成经历了从民意事件客体的呈现,到民众聚集并上升为政治性议题,再到国内外势力借力博弈形成挑动抗议、推动政变的政治力量的过程;“政治性民意势力”形成以后,多行为体借力博弈下,在国别、区域上呈现不同的扩散轨迹和规律;“政治性民意势力”一方面造成了中东北非相关国家的政局变换,另一方面则推动区域地缘政治格局的变迁。这是对民意事件的地缘政治理论解读和分析,是一次较为有意义的尝试。

关键词: “政治性民意势力”, 地缘政治影响, 中东北非地区

Abstract:

Based on the definition of "public opinion," "political public opinion," and "political public opinion forces" and taking discourse power and geopolitical imagination of critical geopolitics as methodology, this study mainly analyzed the formation and impacts of "political public opinion forces" in the political changes of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region from 2010 to 2015. The research results show that the "political public opinion forces" formed against a profound domestic background in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa as well as the international context. Their formation experienced the following process: beginning with the appearance of public opinion events, then moving on to the gathering of people and the rise to political issues, and ending with the domestic and foreign forces finding agents and forming the political powers to incite, protest, and push forward the political changes. After the formation of "political public opinion forces" and under the tactics of various actors, the "political public opinion incidents" expanded at home and aboard while it spread spatially from south and north in herringbone trajectory. As the pivotal actor among the various actors, "political public opinion forces" on the one hand caused the successive political changes of related countries in the Middle East and North Africa. It on the other hand further promoted the differentiating and restructuring of regional geopolitical relations. This is a meaningful attempt to interpret and analyze public opinion events with geopolitical theory.

Key words: "political public opinion forces", geopolitical influence, the Middle East and North Africa