地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 918-929.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.06.012

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

历史遗址类旅游地的生命周期研究——以美国14家历史遗址公园为例

杨小露(), 张红*(), 张春晖   

  1. 陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710119
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-11 修回日期:2019-03-31 出版日期:2019-06-28 发布日期:2019-06-27
  • 通讯作者: 张红 E-mail:15678850856@163.com;zh2000@snnu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:

    第一作者简介:杨小露(1994— ),女,重庆梁平人,硕士生,主要从事旅游地生命周期研究。E-mail:15678850856@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    陕西省软科学研究计划项目(2016KRM119);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(GK201903082)

Life cycle of historic sites: Taking 14 historic site parks in the United States as an example

Xiaolu YANG(), Hong ZHANG*(), Chunhui ZHANG   

  1. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
  • Received:2018-12-11 Revised:2019-03-31 Online:2019-06-28 Published:2019-06-27
  • Contact: Hong ZHANG E-mail:15678850856@163.com;zh2000@snnu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    The Soft Science Research Project of Shaanxi Province, No. 2016KRM119;The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No. GK201903082.

摘要:

实证研究中旅游地生命周期理论的运用潜力备受质疑。论文选取美国14家国家历史遗址公园为例,采用旅游研究中较少使用的四参数Logistic模型结合一次函数、二次函数、三次函数、高斯多峰分析法拟合旅游地的生命周期。研究发现:四参数Logistic模型结合一次函数、二次函数、三次函数能较好地拟合旅游地的生命周期;利用四参数Logistic曲线的上弯点、拐点、下弯点能定量的划分出旅游地的起步探索、发展、巩固、停滞阶段,一次函数、二次函数、三次函数能拟合旅游地的衰退或复兴阶段,这回答了学者们对生命周期阶段难以定量划分的质疑。根据旅游地停滞期之后的发展趋势还能归纳出该类旅游地的生命周期类型;高斯多峰分析法将旅游地的生命周期拟合成一个个波动的高斯峰,更大程度上保留了旅游地演进的波动特征;将高斯多峰分析法与四参数Logistic模型结合起来,不仅能定量划分旅游地的生命周期阶段,还能准确地描述在生命周期阶段内的波动情况,甚至分析各生命周期阶段对整个生命周期的影响和作用。

关键词: 旅游地生命周期, 四参数Logistic模型, 高斯多峰分析

Abstract:

In empirical studies the application of tourism life cycle theory is questioned because of the different modes of study sites and difficulty in dividing life cycle stages. This study selected 14 national historic site parks in the United States as an example. The four-parameter Logistic model, which is rarely used in tourism research, was combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, the cubic function, and the Gaussian multi-peak analysis methods to fit the life cycle of the tourist destinations. The study found that the four-parameter Logistic model combined with the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can better fit the life cycle of these tourist destinations; the four-parameter Logistic curve can be used to quantitatively divide the tourism life cycle by the upper bend point, the inflection point, and the lower bend point into initial exploration, development, consolidation, and stagnation stages, and the primary function, the quadratic function, and the cubic function can fit the recession or rejuvenation stage of the tourist destinations, which addresses the concerns of scholars that it is difficult to quantitatively divide the life cycle stages. Based on the development trend after the stagnation period of tourist destinations, the life cycle type of the tourism destinations can be identified. The Gaussian multi-peak analysis method fits the life cycle of the tourism destinations into a volatility Gaussian peak, which retains tourism change to a greater extent. The characteristics of fluctuation in the life cycle of tourist destinations completely answer the questions of scholars about the life cycle model's application in tourism research.

Key words: tourism life cycle, four-parameter Logistic model, Gaussian multi-peak analysis