地理科学进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 175-190.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2019.02.003

• 研究综述 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于“H-E-V”框架的城市洪涝风险评估研究进展

张会1,2(), 李铖3, 程炯3, 吴志峰4,*(), 吴艳艳4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院广州地球化学研究所,广州 510640
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京100049
    3. 广东省生态环境技术研究所,广州 510650
    4. 广州大学地理科学学院,广州 510006
  • 收稿日期:2018-03-30 修回日期:2018-09-14 出版日期:2019-02-28 发布日期:2019-02-28
  • 通讯作者: 吴志峰 E-mail:huihui945726@163.com;gzuwzf@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    第一作者简介:张会(1987— ),女,河南驻马店人,博士生,主要从事遥感与GIS应用研究、城市洪涝风险评估研究。E-mail: huihui945726@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    广东省科技计划项目(2016A020223009);国家自然科学基金项目(41671430)

A review of urban flood risk assessment based on the framework of hazard-exposure-vulnerability

Hui ZHANG1,2(), Cheng LI3, Jiong CHENG3, Zhifeng WU4,*(), Yanyan WU4   

  1. 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, CAS, Guangzhou 510640, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Guangdong Key Laboratory of Integrated Agro-environmental Pollution Control and Management, Guangdong Institute of Eco-environmental Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510650, China
    4. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510006, China
  • Received:2018-03-30 Revised:2018-09-14 Online:2019-02-28 Published:2019-02-28
  • Contact: Zhifeng WU E-mail:huihui945726@163.com;gzuwzf@163.com
  • Supported by:
    The Science and Technology Project of Guangdong Province, No. 2016A020223009;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41671430.

摘要:

在全球气候变化与城市扩张的背景下,城市洪涝问题频发并引发严重的社会问题与经济损失。当前城市洪涝管理的主要内容已从工程性防御性措施转向洪涝风险管理,而城市洪涝风险评估又是城市洪涝管理的关键环节。基于此背景,论文首先介绍了IPCC采纳的城市洪涝风险评估框架“危险性(Hazard)—暴露性(Exposure)—脆弱性(Vulnerability)”即“H-E-V”的概念内涵,在此基础上梳理了其危险性、暴露性、脆弱性3大要素的主要研究内容,探讨分析不同研究方法的优缺点。最后提出了城市洪涝风险评估的主要发展趋势及关键问题,主要有以下4个方面:①危险性方面,建立适应于城市地区的耦合型二维洪涝淹没模型是洪涝风险评估要求下的必然趋势;②暴露性分析在大数据及GIS技术支撑下正逐步精细化、动态化;③脆弱性正从早期侧重的物理维度定量评估转向社会、经济、文化、环境等多维度的评估;④此外,气候变化与城市扩张下的多情景城市洪涝风险评估是未来城市洪涝管理的研究热点与难题。

关键词: 城市洪涝风险评估, 危险性, 暴露性, 脆弱性, 气候变化, 城市扩张

Abstract:

In the context of global climate change and urban expansion, urban floods frequently cause serious social problems and economic losses. Flood risk assessment as the main content of urban flood management has received extensive attention. This article first presents the conceptual framework of urban flood risk assessment and the function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It then reviews their main research contents respectively, analyzes the strengths and limitations of different research methods in the perspective of urban flood risk management. We conclude that the development trends of urban flood risk assessment include the following four aspects: 1) With regard to flood hazard evaluation, developing the two-dimensional hydraulics flood inundation model incorporating different sources of floods in urban areas such as pluvial, fluvial, and coastal floods is imperative for urban flood risk assessment. 2) Exposure evaluation is moving towards more refined and dynamic evaluation with the support of big data and GIS. 3) Vulnerability assessment is shifting from the quantitative evaluation of the physical dimension to multi-dimensional assessments, such as social, economic, cultural, environmental, and others. 4) In addition, semi-quantitative and quantitative urban flood risk assessment combined with climate change and urban expansion considerations under multiple scenarios is also an important component of future urban flood management.

Key words: urban flood risk assessment, hazards, exposure, vulnerability, climate change, urban expansion