地理科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 1131-1139.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.08.012

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于风险地形建模的毒品犯罪风险评估和警务预测

张宁(), 王大为*()   

  1. 中国人民公安大学犯罪学学院,北京 100038
  • 收稿日期:2017-07-20 修回日期:2017-12-26 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04
  • 通讯作者: 王大为 E-mail:709626991@qq.com;wdw_ppsuc@163.com
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张宁(1979-),男,江苏盱眙人,博士研究生,主要从事风险评估、警务预测、犯罪地理分析与模拟仿真研究,E-mail: 709626991@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    交通运输部长航局科技项目(201710012)

Drug-related crime risk assessment and predictive policing based on risk terrain modeling

Ning ZHANG(), Dawei WANG*()   

  1. School of Criminology, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 100038, China
  • Received:2017-07-20 Revised:2017-12-26 Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04
  • Contact: Dawei WANG E-mail:709626991@qq.com;wdw_ppsuc@163.com
  • Supported by:
    Changjiang River Administration of Navigational Affairs in Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China's Technology Project, No.201710012

摘要:

犯罪具有明显的时空特征,研究犯罪问题离不开时间和空间维度分析,以及产生犯罪的社会、地理、生态、环境等因素。风险地形建模是美国学者研发的空间风险评估和警务预测技术,已在全球六大洲45个国家和美国35个州得到了独立测试和验证,被广泛应用于警务预测、国土安全、交通事故、公共医疗、儿童虐待、环境污染、城市发展等多个领域。在毒品、纵火、爆炸、强奸、抢劫、盗窃等犯罪研究领域更是取得了显著成果。本文运用犯罪热点分析和风险地形建模,以长三角地区N市毒品犯罪为研究对象,对该市2015年毒品犯罪的危险因子、空间盲区、风险地形进行分析,探索毒品犯罪的生成机理和演化规律,并对2016年毒品犯罪进行预测。研究结果表明,N市毒品犯罪呈现明显的犯罪热点和冷点;出租屋、酒店、车站、ATM机、停车场、娱乐场所、城市快速路、网吧是N市毒品犯罪的风险性因素。风险地形建模能较好地预测毒品犯罪。公安机关禁毒部门应据此进行严密管控,逐步限制、消除犯罪产生地、犯罪吸引地、犯罪促进地的生存土壤和条件。

关键词: 毒品犯罪, 热点分析, 风险地形建模, 风险评估, 警务预测

Abstract:

Crime is the product of a certain time and space. Research on crime cannot be separated from temporal and spatial analyses, as well as social, geographical, ecological, environmental, and other factors that generate crime. Risk terrain modeling technology was developed by American scholars for spatial risk assessment and predictive policing. It has been independently proven and tested in over 45 countries across six continents around the world and 35 states in the United States. It has been widely used in many fields such as predictive policing, homeland security, traffic accidents, public health, child abuse, environmental pollution, and urban development. It has achieved remarkable results in the crime research area of drug, arson, explosion, rape, robbery, and theft. This study adopted crime hotspot analysis and risk terrain modeling to analyze the risk factors, spatial blind spots, and risk terrain of narcotics crimes in 2015 in N City of the Yangtze River Delta region, explored the mechanism and evolution of drug crimes, and made a prediction on N City 2016 drug crime trend. The results show that N City drug crime presents obvious crime hotspots and crime cold spots. Rental housing, hotels, railway stations, banks, parking lots, entertainment venues, urban expressways, and Internet cafes are drug risk factors in the city. Risk terrain modeling is effective in predicting drug crimes. The narcotics departments of public security organs should put more police and energy to gradually limit and eliminate the hotspots that generate, attract, and promote crime.

Key words: drug-related crime, hotspot analysis, risk terrain modeling, risk assessment, predictive policing