1960-2016年秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征及其影响因素

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.04.006

地理科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (4): 504-514.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.04.006

1960-2016年秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征及其影响因素

李双双^1,²(), 延军平^1,²(), 杨赛霓³, 胡书山^1,², 赵怡^1,²

1. 陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710119
2. 地理学国家级实验教学示范中心(陕西师范大学),西安 710119
3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875

收稿日期:2017-06-06 修回日期:2017-09-30 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-20
作者简介:
作者简介：李双双(1988-),男,陕西潼关人,讲师,主要研究方向为全球变化与区域灾害防治,E-mail: lss40609010@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41701592);地表过程模型与模拟创新研究群体科学基金项目(41621061);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(GK201703048)

Spatiotemporal variability of heat waves and influencing factors in the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2016

Shuangshuang LI^1,²(), Junping YAN^1,²(), Saini YANG³, Shushan HU^1,², Yi ZHAO^1,²

1. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China;
2. National Demonstration Center for Experimental Geography Education, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2017-06-06 Revised:2017-09-30 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-20
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41701592;The Creative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41621061;Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.GK201703048

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于134个气象站点1960-2016年逐日最高温和相对湿度数据,辅以趋势分析、空间分析和相关分析等方法,对秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征进行分析,探讨了赤道东太平洋海温异常与热浪变化的相关关系。结果表明：①近57年秦岭—淮河地区热浪呈现“非线性、非平稳和阶段性”的变化过程,年代变化可分为3个阶段：1960-1972年热浪呈现东西分异,分界线大致位于112°E,以东地区热浪异常偏多,以西地区则“高低交替”波动;1973-1993年热浪维持“低位波动”,并在20世纪80年代中期呈现快速增加;1994-2016年,关中平原、秦巴山区、巫山山区和四川盆地热浪维持“高位波动”,黄河下游、淮河平原和长江下游热浪则经历从“相对偏多”向“相对偏少”的转变;②在影响因素方面,最高温波动变化是秦岭—淮河地区热浪频次年代变化的主导因素,相对湿度变化的影响相对较弱;③近57年来关中平原热浪年代变化与赤道太平洋西部海温异常关系更为密切,长江流域与东部海温异常关系更为密切;对于黄河下游和秦巴山区的热浪变化与不同分区赤道太平洋海温异常关系均较弱。

关键词: 高温热浪, 时空分析, 厄尔尼诺, 秦岭—淮河地区

Abstract:

In the context of global warming, the likelihood of concurrent heat waves is expected to increase in most parts of China, which will have social and environmental impacts. However, heat wave characteristics are likely to vary regionally. Based on maximum daily temperature and relative humidity data from 134 meteorological stations for the 1960-2016 period, the spatiotemporal variation in heat waves was investigated for the Qinling-Huaihe region. We also analyzed the relationship between El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and heat waves. We found that the heat waves in the past 57 years in the study region can be characterized as non-smooth and non-linear. Three distinct phases of decadal change were identified. During the first phase (1960-1972), with 112°E as the dividing line, heat waves were highly variable with alternating highs and lows in the western part of the region, but occurred at high frequency in the eastern part. During the second phase (1973-1993), heat waves showed low-amplitude fluctuations across the entire region, and rapidly increased in the mid-1980s. The third phase (1994-2016) saw high-amplitude fluctuations in heat waves in the western part of the region, but heat waves decreased in the eastern part. Our results show that over the entire region, the extremes in heat have been more sensitive to daily maximum temperature than regional relative humidity changes. Thus, the cooling of daily maximum temperature along the Huai River led to a decreasing heat wave spatial extent. There was also a notable difference in the relationship between ENSO and heat waves in the Qinling-Huaihe region: a strong positive correlation in the north and a weak negative correlation in the south were observed. Particularly, heat waves on the Guanzhong Plain have been closely related to Ni?o 4, whereas the relationship has been weak along the lower reach of the Yangtze River. The Ni?o 1+2 and Ni?o 3 indices showed significant negative correlations with heat waves across the lower reach of the Yangtze River. In the lower reach of the Yellow River and Qinling-Daba Mountains, the variations in heat waves have been weakly correlated with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In addition, there has been more close relationship between temperature anomalies of equatorial Western Pacific and decadal variation of heat waves on the Guanzhong Plain in recent decades, which has contributed to enhanced warming on the Guanzhong Plain and along the lower reach of the Yangtze River.

Key words: heat wave, spatiotemporal analysis, ENSO, Qinling-Huaihe region

李双双, 延军平, 杨赛霓, 胡书山, 赵怡. 1960-2016年秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征及其影响因素[J]. 地理科学进展, 2018, 37(4): 504-514.

Shuangshuang LI, Junping YAN, Saini YANG, Shushan HU, Yi ZHAO. Spatiotemporal variability of heat waves and influencing factors in the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2016[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2018, 37(4): 504-514.

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地理分区	不同分区厄尔尼诺指数相关性
地理分区	Ni?o1+2	Ni?o 3	Ni?o 4	Ni?o 3.4	Ni?o Z
关中平原	-0.04	0.06	0.24^*	0.14	0.11
黄河下游	0.01	0.00	0.05	0.03	0.02
秦巴山地	-0.07	-0.01	0.20	0.05	0.05
淮河平原	-0.22^*	-0.22^*	-0.10	-0.15	-0.20
四川盆地	-0.19	-0.17	0.03	-0.10	-0.12
巫山山区	-0.25^*	-0.25^*	-0.14	-0.21	-0.23^*
长江下游	-0.34^**	-0.30^*	-0.18	-0.25^**	-0.29^**
影响区域	长江下游	长江下游	关中平原	长江下游	长江下游

1960-2016年秦岭—淮河地区热浪时空变化特征及其影响因素

Spatiotemporal variability of heat waves and influencing factors in the Qinling-Huaihe region, 1960-2016

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分区	1960-2016年热浪频次/次	气候因子贡献率		热浪频次变化率/%	主导因素
分区	1960-2016年热浪频次/次	最高温		热浪频次变化率/%	相对湿度
关中平原	70	0.091	0.019	16.4	最高温
黄河下游	70	0.045	0.003	2.0	最高温
秦巴山区	71	0.064	0.001	18.1	最高温
淮河平原	70	0.042	0.015	0.4	最高温
四川盆地	70	0.042	0.011	9.2	最高温
巫山山区	71	0.043	0.001	8.3	最高温
长江下游	71	0.066	0.042	6.5	最高温+相对湿度

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