地理科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (1): 28-35.doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2018.01.004

• 自然地理学分支学科 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化风险及其定量评估方法

吴绍洪1,2,*(), 高江波1, 邓浩宇1,2, 刘路路1,2, 潘韬3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学资源环境学院,北京 100049
    3. 中国科学院,北京 100864
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-09 修回日期:2018-01-17 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2018-01-28
  • 通讯作者: 吴绍洪 E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴绍洪(1961-),男,广东潮州人,研究员,博士生导师,主要研究方向为自然地理综合研究与全球变化,E-mail: wush@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(L1624026);中国科学院学部学科发展战略研究项目(2016-DX-C-02);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530749);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2014092,2013034)

Climate change risk and methodology for its quantitative assessment

Shaohong WU1,2,*(), Jiangbo GAO1, Haoyu DENG1,2, Lulu LIU1,2, Tao PAN1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China
  • Received:2018-01-09 Revised:2018-01-17 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2018-01-28
  • Contact: Shaohong WU E-mail:wush@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.L1624026;Research Project on the Development Strategy of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.2016-DX-C-02;Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749;Grants Program of China Clean Development Mechanism Fund, No.2014092, No.2013034

摘要:

风险评估是气候变化研究领域的核心课题之一,减缓和适应战略的理论需求推动下发展出许多定量评估方法,完成了大量的评估工作。然而,已有研究在气候变化的风险构成上从不同的角度去认识,且评估方法论在整体上缺乏对致险因子与承险体的集成分类。基于此,本文明晰气候变化风险构成,包括致险因子的危险性、承险体的暴露度与脆弱度及其相互关系,明晰了风险产生与变化逻辑。融合致险因子与承险体特征,将气候变化风险定量评估方法归纳为突发事件和渐变事件两类,并分别进行了理论阐述和案例剖析。最后,根据气候变化风险的研究现状和评估需求,从温升目标、脆弱性曲线、适应措施等方面提出未来展望。

关键词: 气候变化, 风险构成, 定量评估, 方法论, 进展与展望

Abstract:

Risk assessment is a core area of climate change research. Quantitative assessment methods have been developed particularly due to the needs for theory of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and have been applied to a great number of specific assessments. However, there have been different viewpoints of the risk composition of climate change, and overall, integrated classification by coupling risk causing factors and risk bearing bodies is lacking. This article illuminates the risk composition of climate change, including the danger of risk causing factors, the exposure and vulnerability of risk bearing bodies, and their interrelations. The emergence and change of risk were clarified. Based on the integrated analysis of risk causing factors and risk bearing bodies, this study divided the climate change risk quantitative assessment methods into sudden onset hazard risk and slow onset hazard risk assessment methods, then the theoretical elaboration and case analysis were conducted for the two types of risks respectively. Finally, according to the current status and needs, this article proposes the future development directions of climate change risk research, including risk assessment under different warming amplitude, vulnerability curve construction, and adaptation.

Key words: climate change, risk formation, quantitative assessment, methodology, progress and prospect