1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移网络特征

doi:10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.11.006

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着中国城市经济的发展以及城镇化的快速推进,人口迁移的空间格局发生了重大变化。本文基于1985-2015年全国省际人口迁移矩阵数据,运用社会网络分析方法,探讨中国省际人口迁移网络的整体特征以及每个节点在网络中的地位作用。研究结论为：①省际人口迁移网络密度经历了1985-2000年的缓慢下降、2000-2015年持续上升的过程,与西北、西南和中部主要人口迁出地向东部经济发达地区的集中性迁移成为发展主流密切相关。②人口迁移网络的内向中心势明显大于外向中心势,说明人口迁入地相对集中,人口迁出地相对分散。③省际人口迁移网络可分为东北—华北人口联动区、中原—长三角人口联动区、中南—华南人口联动区、西南人口联动区、西北人口联动区5个子群。其中,中原—长三角人口联动区是群内和群间联系最紧密的区域;中南—华南人口联动区是全国人口累计迁移量最高的区域;东北—华北人口联动区内部联系较强,对外仅与西北人口联动区联系较强。④基于中心性分析以及核心—边缘结构划分,各省(市、区)对于人口迁移网络的贡献意义不同,广东、北京具有全局控制意义,江苏、陕西、四川、浙江基本处于核心节点序列,上海、天津、内蒙古、福建核心作用逐渐增强,河南、湖北、河北、新疆核心作用出现下降,全国人口迁移路径总体向北偏移。

关键词: 省际人口迁移, 社会网络分析, 网络特征, 中国

Abstract:

With the rapid development of urban economy and the promotion of urbanization, great changes have taken place in the spatial pattern of population migration in China. Migration has played an important role in the economic, social, and cultural development of cities. Based on the provincial population migration matrix data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in 1985-2015, a social network analysis was conducted to investigate the overall characteristics of interprovincial population migration network and the role of each node. The results show that: (1) Network density of interprovincial population migration has experienced a slow decline in 1985-2000 and a continuous increase in 2000-2015. The concentrated migration of population from the northwest, southwest, and central regions to the eastern developed areas has become the mainstream of development. (2) The inward center potential of population migration network rapidly increased in 1985-2005 and gradually declined in 2005-2015. It indicates that the number of important population moving areas were increasing gradually (such as Tianjin and Fujian), towards a "multi-polarization" development. The outward center potential was always at a low level and exhibited a trend of fluctuation. The inward center potential was clearly larger than the outward center potential. It indicates that the population migration area is relatively concentrated, and the population emigration area is relatively dispersed. (3) The interprovincial population migration network can be divided into 5 groups: Northeast-North China population linkage area, Central Plains-Yangtze River Delta population linkage area, Middle South-Pearl River Delta population linkage area, southwest population linkage area, and northwest population linkage area. Among them, the Central Plains-Yangtze River Delta population linkage area was the most closely linked between and within group; Middle South-Pearl River Delta population linkage area had the highest total population migration. The Northeast-North China population linkage area had a stronger internal connection and only strongly linked with the northwest region externally. (4) According to the population migration analysis, the 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities can be divided into three major categories: net population migration areas including eight provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Tianjin, Fujian, and Xinjiang); population balanced areas including six provinces and autonomous regions (Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Liaoning), and population net emigration areas including 17 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities including Sichuan, Henan, and so on. (5) Based on the centrality analysis and the core-periphery structure, contributions of the provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities to population migration was very different. In the interprovincial population migration network, a few core nodes had strong control over the total amount and path of population migration. About 25-30% core provinces controlled 70-80% of the population migration and path of the country, and the control power continued to rise. Among these provinces, Guangdong and Beijing had overall control significance. Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Zhejiang were largely among the core control nodes. The role of Shanghai, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, and Fujian as core areas had gradually increased. The role of Henan, Hubei, Hebei, and Xinjiang as core areas had declined. The overall migration path of the country is northward.

Key words: interprovincial migration, social network analysis, network characteristics, China

朱孟珏, 李芳. 1985-2015年中国省际人口迁移网络特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36(11): 1368-1379.

Mengjue ZHU, Fang LI. Spatial characteristics of China's interprovincial migration network during 1985-2015[J]. PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY, 2017, 36(11): 1368-1379.

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网络指标	1985-1990年	1990-1995年	1995-2000年	2000-2005年	2005-2010年	2010-2015年	1985-2000年年均增幅/%	2000-2010年年均增幅/%	2010-2015年年均增幅/%	1985-2015年年均增幅/%
网络密度	0.607	0.543	0.505	0.510	0.531	0.563	-1.81	0.50	1.48	-0.31
内向中心势	0.508	0.469	0.703	0.736	0.691	0.639	3.31	-0.17	-1.94	0.96
外向中心势	0.187	0.147	0.221	0.184	0.140	0.122	1.71	-4.47	-3.34	-1.75

凝聚子群		指标	东北—华北人口联动区	中原—长三角人口联动区	中南—华南人口联动区	西南人口联动区	西北人口联动区
东北—华北人口联动区	北京、天津、河北、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、山东、山西	迁移量/万人	2279.28	615.06	363.87	128.11	165.42
东北—华北人口联动区	北京、天津、河北、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、山东、山西	网络密度	0.51	0.15	0.06	0.03	0.04
中原—长三角人口联动区	江苏、上海、浙江、安徽、河南	迁移量/万人	889.74	2693.24	1064.68	214.80	284.95
中原—长三角人口联动区	江苏、上海、浙江、安徽、河南	网络密度	0.06	0.60	0.19	0.08	0.00
中南—华南人口联动区	广东、广西、海南、福建、湖北、湖南、江西	迁移量/万人	403.97	1352.71	4136.61	388.59	103.71
中南—华南人口联动区	广东、广西、海南、福建、湖北、湖南、江西	网络密度	0.02	0.29	0.57	0.07	0.00
西南人口联动区	四川、云南、重庆、贵州、西藏	迁移量/万人	347.21	1177.90	1652.93	549.78	190.75
西南人口联动区	四川、云南、重庆、贵州、西藏	网络密度	0.06	0.29	0.25	0.33	0.05
西北人口联动区	陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆	迁移量/万人	303.37	271.21	229.49	89.51	277.33
西北人口联动区	陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆	网络密度	0.24	0.20	0.09	0.10	0.45

省区	1985-1990年	1990-1995年	1995-2000年	2000-2005年	2005-2010年	2010-2015年	省区	1985-1990年	1990-1995年	1995-2000年	2000-2005年	2005-2010年	2010-2015年
北京	0.210	0.224	0.289	0.436	0.463	0.375	河南	0.151	0.099	0.014	0.204	0.010	0.010
广东	0.213	0.300	0.582	0.310	0.327	0.286	河北	0.087	0.137	0.088	0.003	0.028	0.006
内蒙古	0.024	0.040	0.041	0.116	0.306	0.222	云南	0.011	0.020	0.037	0.026	0.001	0.003
天津	0.022	0.011	0.011	0.014	0.037	0.215	辽宁	0.041	0.080	0.017	0.202	0.028	0.003
陕西	0.131	0.104	0.088	0.015	0.232	0.210	吉林	0.001	0.001	0.006	0.002	0.004	0.003
江苏	0.151	0.162	0.166	0.146	0.196	0.143	山西	0.027	0.023	0.033	0.017	0.014	0.002
新疆	0.014	0.173	0.245	0.182	0.195	0.128	黑龙江	0.003	0.001	0.006	0.002	0.002	0.002
浙江	0.056	0.121	0.094	0.222	0.251	0.124	湖南	0.037	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.001
四川	0.148	0.250	0.033	0.074	0.024	0.070	江西	0.012	0.001	0.000	0.002	0.001	0.001
上海	0.025	0.066	0.052	0.069	0.091	0.066	安徽	0.075	0.009	0.002	0.004	0.000	0.000
湖北	0.092	0.045	0.022	0.008	0.013	0.043	广西	0.014	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
福建	0.017	0.058	0.021	0.062	0.039	0.043	青海	0.002	0.009	0.004	0.011	0.004	0.000
甘肃	0.062	0.093	0.097	0.093	0.139	0.041	宁夏	0.002	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
重庆	0.000	0.000	0.025	0.013	0.000	0.023	海南	0.002	0.006	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
山东	0.158	0.202	0.267	0.244	0.056	0.021	西藏	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
贵州	0.022	0.006	0.000	0.017	0.067	0.016

时段	核心节点
1985-1990	广东、北京、山东、江苏、河南、四川、陕西、湖北、河北
1990-1995	广东、北京、四川、山东、新疆、江苏、河北、浙江、陕西、河南
1995-2000	广东、北京、山东、新疆、江苏、浙江、河北、陕西
2000-2005	北京、广东、山东、浙江、陕西、新疆、江苏、四川
2005-2010	北京、广东、内蒙古、浙江、陕西、江苏、新疆、上海
2010-2015	北京、广东、内蒙古、天津、陕西、江苏、浙江、四川、上海、福建